Energy Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

>>> Oil pipelines find a booster in Trump, but deregulation may not help much


By Ryan Vlastelica

Jan 27, 2017



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-pipelines-find-a-booster-in-trump-but-deregulation-may-not-help-much-2017-01-27?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts



Meet the new boss, same as the old boss?

U.S. President Donald Trump signs one of five executive orders related to the oil pipeline industry on January 24, 2017.

The exchange-traded products that track the oil-pipeline industry have rallied since November’s U.S. presidential election, in some cases doubling the rise of the broader market. But despite the vocal champion they have in the newly inaugurated President Donald Trump, the new regulatory environment may not change as much as investors expect.

Investors have poured into the sector since the election, with all the biggest exchange-traded funds and notes drawing heavy inflows on expectations that the Trump administration would deregulate the industry and approve projects that have stalled or faced opposition under former President Barack Obama.

So far these expectations have been validated. Earlier this week, Trump took steps to revive two oil-pipeline projects that had been rejected by the Obama administration. Two of the executive orders signed by Trump were aimed specifically at the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, which had been designed to make oil trapped in the middle of North America more accessible to consumers.

“These are attractive headlines, but in a lot of ways the environment hasn’t changed that much since the election,” said Brian Sulley, director at Tortoise Capital, which operates the Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund TPYP, +0.37% “There had already been $100 billion in capital projects going on over the next three years, so in a lot of ways it is business as usual.”

Sulley stressed that “the rising tide in sentiment will ultimately be good for the space, and any focus on increased U.S. energy production will only be positive.” But he added that Trump “doesn’t amount to a material change.”

A key issue is a majority of pipelines, based on the market capitalization of the companies, are dedicated to natural gas, whose adoption has increased in recent years. Looser regulation for oil pipelines, therefore, although they may be good for the sector, aren’t a big enough part of the industry for the Keystone or Dakota projects to meaningfully move the needle.

The situation is similar to the coal industry, where Trump has pledged to “bring back coal 100%.” While the coal ETF KOL, -1.21% has risen since his victory, the actual impact of Trump’s policies could be minimal given that waning demand for coal has more to do with cheaper alternatives than government regulation.

“The bigger trend for pipelines is power plants switching to natural gas from coal, not from oil pipelines being approved,” Sulley said.

Tortoise’s ETF is up 9.2% since the election; the $57.1 million fund has also seen $16.5 million in inflows over that period, according to data from ETF.com.

The fund is a pure pipeline fund, including both independent pipeline companies and master limited partnerships (MLP), the focus that similar ETFs and ETNs take. MLPs are publicly traded limited partnerships where the investors purchase units (as opposed to shares), and their money provides the capital for the MLP’s operation. Separately, general partners in the MLP manage its day-to-day operations.

The Alerian MLP ETF AMLP, +0.00% is up 9.7% since the election, with inflows of $705 million over that period. The UBS E-TRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure ETN MLPI, +0.54% , which has seen inflows of $176.7 million, is up 14.8% since the election. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.11% is up 7.2% since the election.

<<<