Market Direction and Stock Trends

[DiscoverGold]

Russell 3000 Index Cash (RUA) Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 21, 2018

Analysis for the Week of April 23, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Apr. 20, 2018: Russell 3000 Cash closed today at 158438 and is trading up about 0.10% for the year from last year's closing of 158277. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 157932 following the high established Wed. Apr. 18, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 158479 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 152808. This provides a 3.57% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 194121 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 144725. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 25%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come May in Russell 3000 Cash so be focused. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. We now need to close below 153521 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Looking at the near-term level, the market has closed up 49.8% from the last cycle low established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year rally from that event. Turning to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 311.7% from the strategic low established during 2009, which has been a 8 year rally from that key event.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 159231. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of February 5th at 149694, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 22nd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 2nd, which has been a move of.0610 percent.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 165767, which was created during the week of March 12th. The last weekly level low was 149694, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 154737 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 154700 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 144725 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 25 months. The last monthly level low was 105645, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 149694 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 169423, which was created during January, and the market has turned lower falling to 151505. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

• DiscoverGold

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries