Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[moosedogger]

No one truly knows how many have SLE and LN.

Cantor is using a 278K number for SLE.

Aurinia is using 500K for SLE here: https://ir.auriniapharma.com/press-releases/detail/107

In their April 2018 Corporate Presentation, Aurinia states (Page 5) that the number is greater than 445K. Everyone seems to accept the current thinking that 60% of SLE sufferers will develop LN.

For a host of reasons (hard to diagnose, fairly widespread ignorance within the medical field, etc.), there is a fairly wide range of estimates of the true size of the population of sufferers of LN and SLE.

In general, the current consensus (if it can even be called that) is that Aurinia's numbers are conservative.

Cantor's numbers are even more conservative.

Bottom line is the market for Aurinia's drug could be substantially greater than is currently estimated.