"I'm also now wondering to myself, if we are crystalizing a ~$200-300MM fraud claim with Macquarie? If we insured $800MM in debt, and the turned around enterprise is now only worth ~$500MM.... does that not easily quantify and spell out (at a high level) the financial materiality of the fraud perpetuated. There's an argument for that, to be certain. Although if we got $50MM plus legal expenses, I'd be happy with this -- fraud is really tough to prove in court."
Your thoughts on this are spot-on in my opinion FWIW. The delta between $800MM and the sale price equals Syncora's expected settlement.
I have a minor disagreement on the fraud comment. Hard to believe Syncora spends $ on legal fees to go to trial with a jury unless they believe they are going to crush MacQuarie. Litigation is expensive, and importantly, Syncora is known to be extremely conservative.
I vote for more analysis from Rock. Don't be a stranger. Thank you for your excellent insight.
