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Re: DiscoverGold post# 38837

Sunday, 03/18/2018 9:07:04 AM

Sunday, March 18, 2018 9:07:04 AM

Post# of 43277
NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 17, 2018

Analysis for the Week of March 19, 2018

WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Mar. 16, 2018: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 131230 and is trading up about 0.22% for the year from last year's closing of 130930. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days, while we have made a low at 130950 following the high established Wed. Mar. 14, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 133460 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 130450. This provides a 2.25% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 135770 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 126270. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 6.99%.

The last event was a low established during 2016.

A possible change in trend appears due come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Immediately, we have broken beneath last month's low. We now need to close below 123830 on a monthly basis to imply a technical reversal of trend to the downside for now.

Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed up 25.2% from the last cycle low established during 2015, which has been only a 2 year rally from that event. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has still closed on the Yearly level up 417.5% from the strategic low established during 1999, which has been a 18 year rally from that key event.

Viewing the near-term level, the market has closed down 4.95% from the last cycle high established during 2016, which has been only a 1 year decline. Flipping to the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 31.9% from the strategic high established during 2011, which has been a 6 year move.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 132880. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 136540, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of December 11th. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of February 26th, which has been a move of.0200 percent.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 7 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 136540, which was created during the week of January 22nd. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th. That is critical technical support and a breach of that low would warn of the potential shift in near-term trend. However, we still remain above key support 130460 on a closing basis.

Critical support still underlies this market at 126270 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market has been in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 26 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015, and only a break of 130460 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 136540, which was created during January, and the market has turned lower falling to 130360. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.



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