Hey buddy,
Been away from the board a bit. Pullback seems somewhat natural, I’d be a bit alarmed if we immediately rose incredibly high before the real data endpoints that are coming up like the secondary data for 5211. They’ve given us a modest increase in valuation, while the jury is out on the rest of our data. It gives us a lot of room to run on real news, especially because the float has been drying up. I may be wrong but the trading pattern this week feels like someone is accumulating.
The offering was at $5 and seemed to have some real interest. I would be shocked if the offering was truly multiple times oversubscribed allegedly, and suddenly there was no buying interest in the 5.50’s. I don’t think it could easily be pushed below 5 given that, so this is the closest someone can get it to load?
I looked into the nash recruiting process more and it seems more like an issue that most of these patients they are looking for, don’t actually know they have nash, and there are no treatment options available and hence. I reason why anyone who found out they had this would actually seek treatment. No approved drugs means no fancy public education commercial campaigns funded by the joy that is big pharma. And because there has never been a treatment for it, nobody really looks, doc wise. True by the way, I can attest to that principle. And when you exclude diabetics, you get rid of a lot of people who are easier to incidentally find nash in. Diabetics get a lot of testing done on them for various reasons. Diabetics also get way more complications in general and can be harder to treat in multiple settings for a wide scope of reasons. Excluding diabetics likely added all the time, but is a necessary evil to get best possible outcomes. We endeavor to treat the purest form of nash imho, and people with genetic variants that predispose to various breeds of high cholesterol states. I am eluding to but not explaining or addressing that the pathophys of nash is likely a bit different in diabetics, a side endeavor I don’t really want to dwell on. Every company can recruit as quick or slow as they choose, and pay more or less for how quickly it can be done.
You hit the nail on the head. There aren’t that many true bone and joint franchises. A company that is desperate for a partner usually wouldn’t proclaim that they were seeking a rarer breed of partner like a bone and joint franchise, they’d take what they could get and not prematurely close a door to potential suitors lol. They are either that overconfident, or they have already had most of the prelim talks with various potential partners in diff industries, and this is a later stage understanding of who they plan to move forward with. They’ve had many years to ponder their plan of attack, I think this is gonna exceed expectations, maybe.
I don’t know if they are required to release the secondary data as soon as available like other data, I would assume so... which makes me think that they booked all these conferences this month to get a timely crack at releasing. I’m probably wrong on that one, but here’s to dreaming.
I think they Have Been holding out as long as possible to partner. The extra round of financing likely was the catalyst for the partner talks to actually begin in earnest. They had to show everyone they weren’t desperate and dying for the cash, for the real deals to come in. Showing big pharma that you can raise 50 million bucks and keep your share price up in the process, means that companies can no longer show up offering you 50 million bucks ;)
When the rest of the 5211 data is allowed to be released, they’ll probably go to all the conferences, show everyone, wait a few extra weeks to see who bites on a deal, and then announce. Either that, or get a quick or final offer they can’t refuse, depending on how active they have been in negotiations thus far.
I’m optimistic and doubled down a little during the recent pullback. We will have secondary data soon enough and it will be the short term game changer, depending on what it looks like and how it gets spun.
Happy trading buddy and a big hello to all the other longs,
Waffles
