:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | March 3, 2018
Analysis for the Week of March 5, 2018
WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Mar. 2, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6125 and is trading up about 1.37% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 4 days, while we have made a low at 6013 following the high established Mon. Feb. 26, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed strong at the end of the session bouncing from the lows. Considering our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6490 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 5608. This provides a 13% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 6955 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 27%.
The last event was a low established during 2016.
A possible change in trend appears due come April in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. Last month produced a low at 5807 and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 6630 to 5807. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
At this time, the market has closed on the Yearly level up 131.9% from the strategic low established during 2016, which has been a 1 year rally from that event.
Observing the near-term level, the market has closed down 14% from the last cycle high established during 2017, which has been only a move from last year. Now bearing in mind the long-term perspective, the market has closed on the Yearly level down 58.9% from the strategic high established during 2008, which has been a 9 year move.
Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of January 22nd at 6666, which was up 31 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of February 5th, which has been a move of.0943 percent.
At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 6666, which was created during the week of January 22nd. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th, and only a break of 6075 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. However, we still remain above key support 6010 on a closing basis.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5070 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 months. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6010 on a closing basis would signal serious correction ahead. The last high on the monthly level was 6666, which was created during January.
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