Timeline of Events & Status
- Feb '17 DMC Recommends Discontinuation of AGS-003 ADAPT Trial
- March '17 Communicated BK risk
- April '18 AGS-003 ADAPT Trial Perspective to Continue Trial
- May '17 FDA Agrees on AGS-003 ADAPT Continuation and will Review Protocol Amendment
- June '17 $5M funding round - BK risk removed, company continues
- July '17 AGS-004 Open-Label Ph1 HIV Trial Reaches PE, 6 pt, 2-fold increase
- Sep '17 AGS-004 Phase 2 HIV eradication trial : Dosing First Patient
- Sep '17 AGS-003 ADAPT Trial Interim Data Discussion @ ESMO
- Nov '17 Lummy made a $1.5M milestone payment
- Dec '17 CC Transcript
- Jan '18 Lummy's $1.5M 0.375M shares @ $4/sh equity investment, to be closed & converted on 2018-03-07
- Jan '18 RS 1:20
- Feb '18 Option to license PD1 Checkpoint Inhibitors for other/more drug variants (?)
- Feb '18 Received a patent for AGS-004 production, their HIV drug
ARGS down big time: Trial $90 -> $30 -> $10 2017 Feb.
Then slide to $4 until Sep '17, $3 Dec '17 and the final RS dip down to $1.28.
8th Jan '18 Announced Lummy Financing
The sale of the shares is expected to close on or prior to March 7, 2018. Lummy has agreed that, on the closing date, it will execute and deliver a lockup agreement under which it will agree not to sell, transfer or otherwise dispose of any shares of common stock of the Company for a period of 60 days from the closing date.
in a private financing 7.5 million shares of the Company’s common stock (subject to appropriate adjustment in the event of any stock dividend, stock split, combination or similar recapitalization affecting such shares) for an aggregate purchase price of $1.5 million.
Since this was announced and signed before the RS 1:20 on 18th Jan '18, the RS 1:20 has to be applied of course.
This leads us to 0.375M shares @ $4/sh before or on 3/7
. Lummy even signed a lock-up, however, that is not required since he is a long time investor, client & partner.
Don't be surprised by the investment at premium here w/o any toxic VWAP clause, this is what supportive accretive long time investors do. 3-4 trading session to go maximum, but they could close it earlier.
May '17 PR Re FDA
The FDA agreed with the Company's plan to continue the trial in accordance with the current protocol to 290 events, the pre-specified number of events at which the analysis of overall survival, the primary endpoint, is to be conducted. The Company believes that 290 events will have occurred by late 2017 or early 2018. The Company also proposed to submit, and the FDA agreed to review, a protocol amendment to increase the pre-specified number of events for the primary analysis of overall survival beyond 290 events, which the Company believes could enhance its ability to detect whether Rocapuldencel-T has a delayed treatment effect. The Company can extend the study past 290 events without needing to enroll additional patients.
Therefor company is close to deliver two catalyst about now, the Lummy financing at $4/sh as well as the 290 events data readout.
We also like the AGS-004 HIV drug a lot, which showed very significant efficacy (6 pt, 2-fold increase compared to baseline). Sure, the sample size was not that high yet - but still.
DD by 01 and myself
As usual, legal disclaimer, this is not an investment advice .. (o8>