I'm new to AVEO, and still doing my due diligence, so I'm probably not the best person to ask about the investment merits.
The stuff I posted was basically what I couldn't find out from their public filings regarding their pre-clinical or early clinical development programs (i.e., excluding Tivozanib).
If I had to handicap likely ROI, I don't see much coming from ficlatuzumab or Av-203. But, all development expenses are being paid by the licensee, and Aveo has retained all US rights to both drugs. So if they were to pass Phase 3 development, each of them alone would be worth the current market cap in my opinion.
Av-380 appears to have the most realistic potential. Apparently, Novartis' bimagrumab (which the FDA granted "breakthrough drug" status in 2013) has struggled in Phase 3 testing. The Cell.com article I posted shows Novartis research that along with bimagrumab, a GDF15 antibody (Av-380) is needed to effectivly and completely treat cachexia. A huge market in both cancer and aging in which Av-380 would likely be a billion dollar a year drug, and a first in class therapy in Av-380 that would likely also receive breakthrough or accelerated approval status. I would guess Av-380 is nearly ready to enter the clinic, and so in terms of near-term catalysts a IND filing and/or Phase 1 in 2018 (with a first class partner like Novartis) would move the stock substantially upwards in my opinion.
Av-353 appears to be a dream: first in class therapy involving Notch3 signaling that reverses PAH (all other therapies appear to only treat symptoms.) The market is substantial ($4 billion), and Av-353 has the potential to be a billion dollar drug. Pre-clinical work at UC San Diego has been done with mice, and is currently being done with pigs. That study should be published in 2018, and then I would assume it also will be ready for the clinic. There currently is no partner, which to me is the red flag. If this really is so great, why isn't anyone leaping in? Of course, a partnership deal signed on attractive terms would push stock price up as well.
The others on this board can speak to tivozanib much better than I can. If approved in 1st and 3rd line kidney cancer treatment, I think it can capture a respectable market share, but I'm not really sure how much. If it is shown to provide a value added affect in use in connection with other therapies (e.g., Tinivo trial), I think it has a lot room to grow because its side effect profile is so superior.
In any event, I think most investors are myopically focused on TIVO-3 results coming in the 2Q, and we should see a jump up in price if positive results are released. That should also be supported by $8 million in EU milestones from pricing approvals for tivozanib and a likely $20 million r&d reimbursement coming from EUSA Pharma in order to use TIVO-3 data.
Personally, my belief is that if TIVO-3 results are positive, AVEO is likely to be bought out. But I think its a mistake to assume valuation will be based entirely on tivozanib, as any acquirer will also receive (a) 100% of US rights and a significant potential ex-US royalty stream in Av-203 and ficlatuzumab, (b) potential for huge royalties on Av-380, and (c) 100% of worldwide rights for Av-353.
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