Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[PlentyParanoid]

Some of you may be wondering how people can get to so different conclusions based on the same prurisol p2a trial data. Well, paraphrasing Ray Bradbury, I am an illustration man.



What you see is Gompertz distributions very loosely fitted into adjusted prurisol p2a trial data (estimates for moderate subjects only). Not much data points which immediately allows for several possible predictions. I picked three, all by persons admittedly long on IPIX, would you believe it. Sorry shorts, you can ride on Infinity.

First observation: responses to prurisol doses up to 100 mg are no different from responses to placebo – no effect. Second observation: data point for 200 mg dose of prurisol either shows an effect or is an outlier. If you think that the 200 mg data point is an outlier –case closed – you are on the short side (will you toes rot and fall off) – prurisol p2b trial will be a failure – go and borrow more shares to short.

If you think that the 200 mg dose really has an effect on psoriasis then you are looking at an illustration of a dose dependent response with a threshold (circa 100 mg). The important question is then: is the effect dose depended beyond 200 mg? - We really can’t know based on one point – so a few of us longs have assumed what might be. I have tried to show how some select assumptions might look if presented using fitted Gompertz functions. I have named them after a prominent (vocal?) proponent for the scenario. For shortness sake names are truncated (I could not fit “To infinity and beyond at his darkest hour” into the legend).

Main differences: I interpret George's posts as follows. George thinks that the percentage for 2 IGA points drop in p2a trial is directly translatable into corresponding PASI 75 percentage plus the dose dependency of the response will be near liner at least up to 400 mg. Infinity (presumably) and I disagree. We seem to agree that up to 200 mg prurisol will closely track Otezla. But after 200 mg dose Infinity (usually) yields to the dark side and envisions that 200 mg is also the saturation point or very near it. I don't, I see prurisol slightly improving on Otezla at 300 and 400 mg dose.

Remember: currently all these scenarios are equally plausible.

Name exposed persons are welcome to pummel me for frivolous misrepresentation.