I think the metric they'd be most likely to miss on would be adjusted EBITA for a couple of reasons, the main one being that the margins on the 200 million annual grams from the JV may not be as high margin as the other 240 million grams from their streaming deals, but I'm not sure because the company hasn't released the specific details on that yet.
I think the selling price per gram is fairly well established and pretty close, especially given that there is an anticipated shortage in supply in Canada for the next 3 years until all of the production is built out, but again, then you also have international markets as well. Of the 5 top producers, only two (Aurora and Canopy) are even below $8/gram at the time this investor presentation was made. The only one below $7/gram was Aurora at $6.06 but that is clearly an outlier when comparing their #'s to the all the others, and they were also losing a ton of money selling at that price.
I can only go by the #'s that are provided by the company, but I tried to be very conservative in terms of the forward EBITA multiple by using just over half of what the company estimated (10x vs 19x forward EBITA) as well share count (I think the total # will probably be between 600 million-775 million when it's all said and done, but I increased the high end of my personal estimate by 33%). I also didn't give them any value for their holdings in their streaming partners. How much more conservative do you think I should be? If I just make up my own #'s instead of using the ones the company specifically provides, wouldn't that pretty much be pulling them out of my ass? I can't pretend to know more about their business than they do. Maybe the #'s don't work out exactly the way that they're anticipating, but even if they don't, I think that I left enough wiggle room in plenty of other areas that my price target/market cap will still play out.
