Cannabis Report
Home > Boards > US OTC > Biotechs > NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc. (NWBO)

Shaking My head on this 1.

Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last ReadPost New MsgNext 10 | Previous | Next
survivor1x Member Profile
 
Followed By 4
Posts 411
Boards Moderated 0
Alias Born 06/08/17
160x600 placeholder
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 6/28/2018 5:23:29 PM
Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424(b)(5) (424b5) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 6/28/2018 4:12:19 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 6/18/2018 5:16:53 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 6/1/2018 4:34:18 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/31/2018 5:01:23 PM
Statement of Changes in Beneficial Ownership (4) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/31/2018 7:03:23 AM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/21/2018 4:44:29 PM
Quarterly Report (10-q) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/16/2018 5:06:32 PM
Notification That Quarterly Report Will Be Submitted Late (nt 10-q) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/16/2018 4:42:32 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/7/2018 5:26:40 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 5/2/2018 3:52:43 PM
Traders News Source Issues Research Reports on ANDI, FUSZ, RNVA and NWBO InvestorsHub NewsWire - 4/19/2018 8:00:00 AM
Annual Report (10-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 4/17/2018 5:11:43 PM
Revised Proxy Soliciting Materials (definitive) (defr14a) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 4/12/2018 5:26:20 PM
Proxy Statement (definitive) (def 14a) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 4/9/2018 4:15:48 PM
Proxy Soliciting Materials (revised) (prer14a) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 4/4/2018 5:19:57 PM
Notification That Annual Report Will Be Submitted Late (nt 10-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 4/3/2018 6:07:43 AM
Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424(b)(5) (424b5) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/26/2018 5:18:11 PM
Proxy Statement - Notice of Shareholders Meeting (preliminary) (pre 14a) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/26/2018 5:12:56 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/22/2018 4:41:41 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/20/2018 5:11:43 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/15/2018 5:21:44 PM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/7/2018 4:06:26 PM
StereoVision (SVSN) $420 million in Sales from $1,000 Acre Hemp Farm Lease InvestorsHub NewsWire - 3/6/2018 6:47:36 AM
Current Report Filing (8-k) Edgar (US Regulatory) - 3/2/2018 5:27:04 PM
survivor1x   Friday, 01/12/18 03:00:31 PM
Re: None
Post # of 183132 
Shaking My head on this 1.

I am open to scrutiny. Please check this math or use a different studies survival percentages in time. I used the enrollment graph below



To get the # of patients enrolled in each 6 month period going back 78 months. In each case the patients were enrolled by at least that time meaning they are at least 24 months enrolled but half are closer to 30 months enrolled and so an and so forth - This means I am over estimating the # of patients that should be alive at 24 months as only 1/6th in that period are exactly at 24 months some are closer to 30 months and should have a lower survival %.

Just for grins I multiplied the Placebo(1/3) X Optune treatment group percentages(That's right PLACEBO getting Optunes treatment survival) and then the DC VAX group X Stupp survival percentages). In other words I wanted see how many would be alive even if the placebo was kicking ass on all prior expectations.



With 100 alive in June 2017 and 2 per month having an event. 85 to 87 would be expected to be alive November 2017 per company guidance or 2 years from ENROLLMENT. When you add the two groups from the chart above with the ridiculous assumption that Placebo will perform like Optune treatment arm and DCVAX will perform like STUPP. You wind up with 62.8 that would be expected to be alive in Nov 2017 85-87 vs 63 represents a 35-38% reduction in death. Did I miss something?? If I did, please call me out on it. So not only did I call all 29.28.27,26,25 month survivors a 24 month survivor I used Optune on Placebo and STUPP on DCVAX and we only show 63 alive. Even if we expected that the entire group would perform like Optune only 80-81 would be expected to be alive at this point.



Public Reply | Private Reply | Keep | Last ReadPost New MsgNext 10 | Previous | Next
Follow Board Follow Board Keyboard Shortcuts Report TOS Violation
X
Current Price
Change
Volume
Detailed Quote - Discussion Board
Intraday Chart
+/- to Watchlist