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Shaking My head on this 1.

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survivor1x   Friday, 01/12/18 03:00:31 PM
Re: None
Post # of 170187 
Shaking My head on this 1.

I am open to scrutiny. Please check this math or use a different studies survival percentages in time. I used the enrollment graph below



To get the # of patients enrolled in each 6 month period going back 78 months. In each case the patients were enrolled by at least that time meaning they are at least 24 months enrolled but half are closer to 30 months enrolled and so an and so forth - This means I am over estimating the # of patients that should be alive at 24 months as only 1/6th in that period are exactly at 24 months some are closer to 30 months and should have a lower survival %.

Just for grins I multiplied the Placebo(1/3) X Optune treatment group percentages(That's right PLACEBO getting Optunes treatment survival) and then the DC VAX group X Stupp survival percentages). In other words I wanted see how many would be alive even if the placebo was kicking ass on all prior expectations.



With 100 alive in June 2017 and 2 per month having an event. 85 to 87 would be expected to be alive November 2017 per company guidance or 2 years from ENROLLMENT. When you add the two groups from the chart above with the ridiculous assumption that Placebo will perform like Optune treatment arm and DCVAX will perform like STUPP. You wind up with 62.8 that would be expected to be alive in Nov 2017 85-87 vs 63 represents a 35-38% reduction in death. Did I miss something?? If I did, please call me out on it. So not only did I call all 29.28.27,26,25 month survivors a 24 month survivor I used Optune on Placebo and STUPP on DCVAX and we only show 63 alive. Even if we expected that the entire group would perform like Optune only 80-81 would be expected to be alive at this point.



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