Followers | 679 |
Posts | 140260 |
Boards Moderated | 40 |
Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Friday, December 29, 2017 4:14:46 PM
By: Tom McClellan | December 29, 2017
We are now entering the upward phase of gold’s 8-year cycle, and that should bring some fun gains. And this comes at a time when gold has not been getting much of investors’ attention. If gold stays flat for a year, and Bitcoin twinkles to get all of the attention, speculators eventually drift away from gold. That sets up a great opportunity for gold to start getting more attention, and more money thrown its way.
As with most market cycles, gold’s 8-year cycle is measured bottom-to-bottom. But there is more to it than just that 8-year period between major bottoms. It typically sees a 3-year upward phase, which is where most of the big gains are seen. Then the 5-year downward phase actually has a 3-wave process of going down.
This has been evident since shortly after gold started trading freely in 1975. The cycle was probably lurking out in the wild, but it was just not evident with the Treasury department fixing gold prices prior to the 1970s. The 3-up, 5-down pattern saw one anomaly in the 2000s, when prices were mostly up all the time during that cycle. But if you look hard enough, you can see the inflection points of the 3-wave down move within that upward trend.
Now that we are in the 2010s, the pattern appears to have returned to its normal 3-year up, 5-year down phase, and reset for the next 3-year up phase. So why has gold not started screaming higher already?
My answer is that there is another independent cycle also at work that has kept gold price down in late 2017, and that is the 13-1/2 month cycle.
This cycle is also a bit unusual, in that it usually contains a mid-cycle low about halfway between major cycle lows. And as I discussed back in September, it is a bullish message to see “right translation” in the last cycle.
That term means that the price high after the mid-cycle low is higher than the one before it. Seeing right translation means that prices should not go down to exceed the prior major cycle low, and that they should do well in at least the first part of the next cycle, which is starting right about now. We saw “left translation” in the 13-1/2 month cycle from 2011 to 2014, as gold prices were in a protracted downtrend during the 8-year cycle’s descending phase.
As we head into early 2018, we have both the 8-year cycle and the 13-1/2 month cycle in their ascending phases. That means both horses are pulling in the same direction, and it should mean good things for gold prices especially in the first half of the year.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/golds_8-year_cycle/
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
****************************************
*** For Market Direction and Trends visit our board:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Market-Direction-and-Trends-26249/
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
Recent GOLD News
- Strategy-Driven Barrick Builds on Value Foundation • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/28/2024 09:20:38 PM
- Barrick Hunts New Gold and Copper Prospects in DRC From Kibali Base • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/20/2024 02:00:00 PM
- Barrick Opens Academy at Closed Buzwagi Mine • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/18/2024 08:00:00 AM
- Barrick to Grow Production and Value on Global Asset Foundation • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/15/2024 11:53:01 AM
- Loulo-Gounkoto Delivers Another Value-Creating Performance • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/10/2024 10:00:00 AM
- Passing of the Right Honorable Brian Mulroney • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/02/2024 01:17:35 AM
- Kibali and DRC Partner to Promote Local Content • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/01/2024 02:22:43 PM
- Tanzanian Parliamentary Committee Lauds Barrick’s Work at North Mara • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/23/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 10:28:08 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 08:05:25 PM
- Clear Strategies and Strong Partnerships Set Barrick Up to Outperform, Says Bristow • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 11:00:00 AM
- Barrick Announces New Share Buyback Program • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 10:59:00 AM
- Barrick Declares Q4 Dividend • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 10:58:00 AM
- NGM Strongly Positioned for Growth • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/10/2024 01:00:16 AM
- Form SC 13G - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 03:03:08 PM
- Form 6-K - Report of foreign issuer [Rules 13a-16 and 15d-16] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 12:46:55 PM
- Geologically Driven Asset Management Delivers Barrick’s Third Successive Year of Reserve Growth at Sustained Quality, While Unlocking Embedded Growth Portfolio • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/08/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Form SC 13G/A - Statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership by individuals: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/01/2024 06:04:56 PM
- Africa’s Largest Gold Mine Now Also One of Its Greenest • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/29/2024 04:00:00 PM
- Barrick Continues to be a Major Value Creator for Mali • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/27/2024 09:00:00 AM
- Barrick’s Lumwana Super Pit Project On Track for First Production in 2028 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/23/2024 03:35:00 PM
- Barrick’s Tanzanian Mines on Tier One Track With Potential for Extending Lives, Growing Production • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/21/2024 12:00:00 PM
- New Airport Terminal at Kahama Airstrip to Leave Lasting Legacy at Barrick’s Buzwagi Gold Mine • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/21/2024 08:00:00 AM
- Barrick Reports Higher Q4 Gold Production • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/16/2024 12:00:00 PM
- Notice of Release of Barrick’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Results • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/09/2024 12:00:00 PM
Endexx Corporation (EDXC) Leverages Global Market Trends and Legislative Reforms to Spearhead Growth in the Cannabis and Plant-Based Wellness Sectors • EDXC • Mar 27, 2024 3:01 PM
Applied UV, Inc. Announces Pricing of $2.76 Million Registered Direct and Private Placement Priced at the Market Under Nasdaq Rules • AUVI • Mar 27, 2024 2:51 PM
POET and MultiLane Collaborate to Develop High-Speed Pluggable Transceivers for AI Networks • POET • Mar 27, 2024 10:52 AM
Maybacks Global Entertainment Opens 23 More Stations in Important Major Cities • AHRO • Mar 27, 2024 9:00 AM
NxGen Brands Inc. Forecast to Deliver 140% Growth in Q1 2024 • NXGB • Mar 27, 2024 7:30 AM
Kona Gold Beverages, Inc. Strategic Advancements: Covert LLC Introduces Federally Legal D9 Gummies and Revamps Innovative eCommerce Platform, Propelling Toward $12 Million Annual Revenue Goal • KGKG • Mar 26, 2024 8:30 AM