Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CLVLY)

[contrarian bull]

I have been following SCENESSE and it's predecessors and related products for about 15 years and first got interested in it for its potential to take over the $5 Billion (US) tanning industry. It seems right now there are only a few thousand users of the drug here because they have to get it off the black market. If this was approved even if just for EPP, doctors here in the US would likely prescribe it "off label" for cosmetic purposes.

However this will not happen in big volumes at the proposed pricing. I don't think the typical tanner would spend more than a few hundred dollars per year on this drug.

If they decided to take advantage of the off label use and lower the price to say $100 instead of the currently proposed pricing they would have maybe 10 million users here and I think the net profit would be higher.

But - I understand they have to pretend that wouldn't happen to get approval and if they lowered the price too much it would raise suspicions...

Time will tell whether this is a multi-billion dollar product or not. In the meantime they have to struggle through the approval processes.

Still a waiting game.

I don't agree with that. NICE is notorious for finding fault with new medicines being too expensive.