NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 24, 2017
Analysis for the Week of December 25, 2017
As of the close of Fri. Dec. 22, 2017: The market is in a bullish posture near-term suggesting it is positive on a daily level, but it is still trading below the December 2016 high. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 128042 and 127882. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 126842 and 127032. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come January 2018 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Respectfully, we are still trading neutral within last month's trading range of 130040 to 126590. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 127880 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. So far, we have been trading up for the past 8 days since the low made on Tue. Dec. 12, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 127980. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 126230
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of December 11th at 123830, which was down 14 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 11th, which has been a move of 3.32% percent.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Broadly, my expanded forecast recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Bearing in mind the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of December 11th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 12/18 was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 3 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 130040, which was created during the week of November 27th. The last weekly level low was 123830, which formed during the week of December 11th. However, we still remain above key support 126640 on a closing basis. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. However, we still remain below key resistance 129880 on a closing basis.
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