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NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 9, 2017

Analysis for the Week of December 11, 2017

As of the close of Fri. Dec. 8, 2017: The market is in a neutral position for right now. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 5781 and 5738. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 5656 and 5667. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.

We should see a trend change come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 5905 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5905 to 5389. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 5736 and is trading up about 6.77% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Dec. 7, 2017.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 5703

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 20th at 5905, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of December 4th, which has been a move of 4.31% percent. Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 5 months since the low established back in June.

Critical support still underlies this market at 4557 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.



Diagnostically, my wide-ranging prospective recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains positive since we are trading above last year's high. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year with this year exceeding last year's high. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.

To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.

Bearing in mind the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 27th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 12/4 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 24 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5905, which was created during the week of November 20th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 5 months. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. The last high on the monthly level was 5905, which was created during November.

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