NY Gold Nearest Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | December 2, 2017
Analysis for the Week of December 04, 2017
As of the close of Thu. Nov. 30, 2017: Our immediate trend model is bearish as are our momentum models so we should still expect a retest of support. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 128842, 127672 128692, . Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 127312. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.
We should see a trend change come January 2018 in NY Gold Nearest Futures so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a neutral inside trading range from the previous month. Respectfully, we are still trading neutral within last month's trading range of 130040 to 126590. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 127670 and is trading up about 10% for the year from last year's closing of 115170. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 127310 following the high established Mon. Nov. 27, 2017.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 127990. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both neutral reflecting resistance forming at 127440
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 2nd at 126280, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of September 4th. We have been generally trading up for the past 5 weeks from the low of the week of October 23rd, which has been a move of 2.84% percent.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 136240 was important given we did obtain one sell signal from that event established during September. Critical support still underlies this market at 121420 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible.
Logically, my long-term study recognizes that the current bullish progression in NY Gold Nearest Futures reflects a major low may be forming since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Gold Nearest Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 137750 and 106100. Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2015 which was a 4 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2015, this market has bounced for 2 years, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 137750 to 106100. Keep in mind that we may yet complete the decline to a new low this year if we do not exceed last year's high of 137750 and close above the Yearly Bullish Reversal at 130790. Failure to make new lows this year warns that we could extend down into next year since their is a split between the high intraday took place in 2011 and the highest yearly closing which unfolded in 2012.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 68090 on an annual closing basis. Overhead key resistance within this trend stands at 130790, while support immediately lies down at 68090 on an intraday basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 192370 major high established back in 2011.
Eyeing the immediate momentum is Neutral on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of November 20th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. Currently, the market in technically neutral since it is still trading inside last year's trading range. On the weekly level, the last week of 11/27 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Addressing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 130840, which was created during the week of October 16th. The last weekly level low was 120400, which formed during the week of July 10th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 127820 above the market. For now on a broader perspective, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 months. The last monthly level low was 104540, which formed during December 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 136240, which was created during September. However, we still remain below key resistance 129880 on a closing basis.
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