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S&P 500 Index Cash Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 11, 2017

Analysis for the Week of November 13, 2017

As of the close of Fri. Nov. 10, 2017: The market is in a bearish posture near-term for now on the daily level warning caution should be taken. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 258383 and 258232. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. Projected technical Support tomorrow lies at 257559 and 258020. Naturally, opening below this area will cause it to become resistance.

We should see a trend change come this month in S&P 500 Cash Index so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 258298 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 258298 to 252040. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 258230 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 223883. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the reaction low made on Thu. Nov. 9, 2017.

Our Daily level momentum is bearish while the trend indicator is bullish providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bullish 258566

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 6th at 259702, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of August 21st. We have been generally trading up since that low, which has been a move of 4.38% percent in a stark panic type advance. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 6th has exceeded the previous high of 248038 made back during the week of August 28th. We have seen a rally so far from the last low at 241735 made the week of August 21st, and only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune. Otherwise, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall. Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in June 2016.

Critical support still underlies this market at 240560 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.

Critically, my broader investigation study recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in February 2016 has been a long-term Bullish trend in S&P 500 Cash Index. This trend remain in motion as long as we hold above 199166 on a monthly closing basis. It is incredibly important to identify the broader trend for that is the underlying tone. It is wise to take position counter-trend only with this understanding of what you are doing.

Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2016. Caution is advisable since this is also 8 years up from the low of given that was the major low 2009. We must pay attention to the closing for this year. If we close lower at year end, beneath 223883, then we can see a pause in the uptrend into next year. Penetrating intraday last year's low of 181010 will confirm a serious correction into next year. However, we have rallied to exceed last year's high last month. We need to see a closing above 227753 at year-end to see a continued rally is possible into next year. Exceeding this year's high next year and holding last year's low intraday will signal the bullish trend is still intact. A breach of last year's low of 181010 intraday will negate that outcome.

Addressing the longer term yearly level, we see turning points where highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis should form will be, 2019, 2023 and 2026. We show a potential for a decline moving into 2019 with the opposite trend thereafter into 2023. This pattern becomes a possibility if last year's low of 181010 is penetrated even intraday. The most important timing model, the Directional Change Model targets are during 2023 and during 2024. This model often picks the high or low, but can also elect a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level. Aiming on the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during January 2025. We look to the turning points to ascertain the direction. Volatility targets reflect only volatility.

Directing our attention to the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of October 30th's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 227753. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 53 weeks. The last weekly level low was 208379, which formed during the week of October 31st. The last high on the weekly level was 259702, which was created during the week of November 6th. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 20 months. The last monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016. The last high on the monthly level was 258298, which was created during October.

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