SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[spartex]

Good post on what the common folks will eventually find out......

tax reform; the proposal for budget was merely a blue print to show how they intend to free up $ for tax cuts

My point is that this "blue print" is now strongly indicating that the market has gotten fully swollen from anticipation of future tax reform/cut and also the infrastructure package (small-mid caps are up 6.1% the past 6 weeks!).

That is why I am starting to taper out of equities this fall after rich gains by these indexes since Dec 2016. Much of the Santa Clause Rally may have already happened in Sept-Oct my opinion! Risk reward is feeling asymmetrical right now: maybe another 2-3% left to SPY this year versus 5-10% correction by New Year (or soon thereafter). I screwed up in getting back in during early Jan 2016 as SPY dropped down 3% to 200 range in 2 days before the Jan-Mar correction. We may see something like that happen again.....

Of course this melt up could go further than I and many others believe.... but I know we are more than fully valued by 5% or more.

TGIF!