Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (SHIP)

[Longer Than Most]

Why SHIP is going to run in the coming weeks and months...

This is only IMO and is meant for regular investors that want to see gains over a longer period (weeks-months depending) rather than flip for quick profits.


What HAS Happened:

SHIP Regains Nasdaq Compliance
Once the price closed above $1, it held above it with strong support for 10 straight days. The news was released a few days later and can be found here:
SHIP Regains NASDAQ Comliance

Golden Cross has Happened (Daily 50SMA crossing 200SMA)
The GC usually results in some serious price movement and many traders anticipate this to occur close to this crossover. Unfortunately this hasn't been the case with SHIP and I believe that many traders who bought for the GC move have sold their positions and postponed this from breaking some key resistance points. That being said, the Golden Cross represents a trend REVERSAL and does not necessarily mean a "large upward movement" so I do anticipate this trend reversal to start showing its true GOLDEN colours in a slow and steady fashion. The price above the 200SMA is nice to have for a recently bottomed stock.

Price Has Risen Above Weekly 50SMA
This has been acting as the roof ever since SHIP ran to to $1.2+ the first time. After a few weeks of consolidation the price has finally broken through and closed above the 50 to end the week. Things feeling better and better here.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Is On A Tear!
The BDI is an index that measures the global daily price averages for shipping bulk dry goods. The BDI had reached an all-time high of $11,500+ in just May of 2008. Despite the BDI holding levels of around $4000 for a few years after the recession, the prices eventually sank, and in a horrible way. Ships that were ordered prior to the recession were purchased based on the assumption that global economic trade would continue to grow at similar rates, but when the crash happened and ships were built, companies saw them sitting at bay with no work. The BDI began to fall sharply as the production of these ships were completed years later. The BDI eventually hit an all-time low of an astounding $290 in Jan/Feb of 2016.The "break even" point for shipping companies is supposedly around $1300, so these lows pushed the sector into turmoil. Companies were resorting to dilution, bankruptcy, and full on insolvency because the market was so harsh. SHIP had a similar situation with public equity offerings but recently announced the closing of this offering, which is great news for longs. Here is the link: SHIP Closes Equity Offering. They seem to really be making every effort possible to maintain shareholder value and trust.

The BDI has had a Golden Cross (@~$1300)
This GC happened a few weeks prior to SHIP seeing its own GC. Since then, the BDI has hit new 1 year, 2 year, and 3 year highs. It has seen healthy consolidation as well and looks great to continue making new highs. The index hit $1500 ONLY 2 WEEKS after the Golden Cross and will test that high any day now. I expect it to keep going and we will see some serious financial improvements across the board for the shipping sector.

To put the importance of the BDI into perspective, here is a quick example:
If a company with $100M in revenue when the BDI was hitting $11,000+ would only need to be moving a hypothetical 9090 units.
100,000,000 / 11,000 = 9,090 units.
When prices hit $300 last year, let's see what happened to that $100M in revenue...
9,090 X 300 = 2,727,000
That's right, $2.7M in revenue. What? Wait, hold on, let me check my calculator...Nope that's right, even with increased business due to low shipping costs, the gap of $97.3M in revenue compared to 2008 would never be filled. The shipping industry got OBLITERATED. Stakeholders of all shapes and sizes went running for the hills, and people and companies lost a lot of money. But now may be the time for the early adopters to spot this sleeping giant because everyone will come back when shipping companies start posting regularly large gains quarter after quarter. In 2016, shipping companies were earning LESS THAN 1/20th their average revenue that they were seeing only 8 YEARS AGO. In my opinion, the BDI has bottomed and all solid shipping companies are poised to see some serious attention and gains if all international factors continue to allow the index to run its course. The BDI has now surpassed the break-even point and now we will see not just revenue increases, but PROFIT. The chart looks beautiful and I see the BDI going much much higher in the coming months, and potentially years.

SHIP is Doing MUCH Better from the Recent Sector Improvements
Revenue in 2Q 2017 is up 125% compared to 2Q in 2016 and that is only one highlight. Check out their impressive Financial Results here: SHIP Financial Results

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What Is GOING To Happen

$1.19-1.25 Will Fall Eventually...
This has proven to be quite the roof for SHIP over and over again. Shorts seem to reload around this area to bring it down again but I am not sure how much longer that can go on for. The price closed this Friday, Oct 13 at 1.19, putting the price above the Upper Bollinger Band.
-A double bottom trend has formed on the 1 month chart. Support is strong and next leg feels imminent
-The MACD is beginning to turn upwards and a bullish crossover is a few days away
-Accumulation in the last 2 days has been very nice
-The RSI has had so long to cool off since the run from $0.70 that it looks primed to support a break through this resistance this time

Another Big Crossover is a Few Days Away
The Daily 100SMA is approaching the 200SMA which will be yet another bullish cross and I think SHIP could finally see some action.

Another Big Crossover is a Few Weeks Away
The price breaking the Weekly 50SMA resistance is one thing, but the Weekly 20SMA is fast approaching the 50SMA. This crossover will really set SHIP up with some long term upwards momentum.

SHIP was $8 earlier this year...
There is no doubt that this is on many bottom watchers' watchlists and I am sure they will need to see it turn around more before hopping in, but once this posts gains, we should see new faces come out of the woodwork.

Thanks for reading and good luck! This is all only my opinion and I simply felt like sharing some of the aspects that interested me. Feel free to post or reply and start some discussion too, this board could use the company!

Steeze