The Shyft Group Inc (SHYF)

[Paullee]

Core Portfolio Additions

Spartan Motors (NASDAQ:SPAR) - We added an initial 6% position this quarter, which we later increased to 8%, in a fantastic manufacturer of "last mile" delivery vans, emergency vehicles (think firetrucks!) and chassis for large scale Recreational Vehicles (RVs). Spartan, a $300 million market capitalization company with no debt, has a leading position in a duopoly delivery van market, which should continue to grow above historical trends with ecommerce and package delivery set to grow in double digits in the near future.
While the high ROIC van business segment is arguably the jewel of the empire, with expanding 10% EBITDA margins, and at current relative valuation levels accounts for the entire value of the company, we believe the real opportunity lies in the turnaround of bigger emergency vehicles segment by the reputable CEO Daryl Adams. When Adams joined the company two years ago, he found a historically mismanaged and culturally inefficient enterprise. Since then, Adams, who recently bought $3 million worth of SPAR stock on the open market to add to his $2 million holding, has made great strides in improving operations in every segment. In our experience of investing in turnarounds of small industrial manufacturers, we believe the company's problems are easily fixable under Adams' leadership and should drive company-wide EBITDA margins from 4% today to above industry averages of 10% in the next two to three years. Included among some of the easy fixes are consolidating facilities and purchasing departments, investing in hereto non-existent Enterprise Resource Planning software, implementing a culture of lean manufacturing, and compensating the new slate of impressive managers on ROIC enhancing metrics, such as operating income growth and working capital improvements.
We expect SPAR's EBITDA to grow from $30 million in 2016 to over $90 million by 2019 and with low additional capital investment requirements and a substantial portion of those profits to convert to Free Cash Flow. As the company improves its Cash Flow Return on Assets (CFRA) and ROIC from low single digits to potentially 20% or higher, we expect the valuation multiples to expand from 8x to over 10x and for the potential return on this investment to exceed 200% from our initial $8.55 per share purchase levels. In the meantime, the Sum Of The Parts valuation of at least 100% higher than today's stock price and a CEO willing to monetize the company assets for the right price, provide the right margin of safety for this investment.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4106061-artko-capital-q2-2017-commentary?app=1&auth_param=3ftc:1crfuav:db89d05d04692f5fa10381c92097d8ac