NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[alphapuppy]

EX

1. At ASCO in early June there were 231 OS events, which is just 2 events shy off 233 event OS minimum threshold. NWBO predicted that these remaining 2 events would occur in about 1 month ... by mid July.
What do you think, statistically and per your modeling etc, that the odds are that the 233 event threshold has not yet been crossed?
How many OS events do you think have occurred so far .... 237?

I have to take Bosch at his word of 2 events per month but I know that the event rate changes (reduces) as the total number of patients alive and still on the trial reduces.

Is there a benefit for NWBO allowing the trial to continue well beyond the 233 events?

Not from a statistical standpoint but they may have agreed to wait for x events to occur with the FDA

Do you think NWBO may have implemented a data-lock, and just not reported it yet?

NO i don't; Bosch would have disclosed that at his 8-31-2017 talk if they had. IMHO

2. Based on your modeling of the blinded phase 3 .... how do you think the results from the information arm confirm or strengthen your charts & predictions?

From one what I have seen it supports my model

3. Based on your most current modeling, what is your prediction regarding Primary Endpoint results .... number of months for treatment arm versus control arm?
Same for Secondary Endpoint OS number of months for each cohort?

Please see my graphs; unable to say anything about subset analysis.