::: NY Crude Oil Futures Analysis ::: By Marty Armstrong | August 12, 2017
Analysis for the Week of August 14, 2017
NY Crude Oil Futures BASED ON THE CLOSE OF Fri. Aug. 11, 2017: Pinpointing time for a turning point on our monthly models, we see the next target unfolding during October in NY Crude Oil Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday so pay attention. The key week ahead for a turning point is 8/14. Last month produced a high at 5041 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 5041 to 4365. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Here we have a long-term bullish trend in play since the historical low took place back in 1902 followed by the historical high in 2008, which constituted a 106 year rally. Since then, there was a reactionary low in 2016 from which we have seen a 8 year decline. Subsequently, we have seen a 1 year rally to retest resistance. As of the close of Fri. Aug. 11, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral posture near-term for now on the daily level. NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4882 so far is trading down about 9.12% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Aug. 10, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 31st at 5043, which was up 6 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th. We have seen the market rally for the past week from the low of the week of August 7th, which has been a move of 4.46% percent. Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for 5 months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 1 month.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Methodically, my broader-term forecast recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Inspecting the immediate momentum is Bullish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of July 31st's low. This is warning to pay attention since last month had closed higher so the upward momentum is weak on the monthly level. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 8/7 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend. For now, this market in an uptrend posture looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 7 weeks. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. The last high on the weekly level was 5043, which was created during the week of July 31st. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 months. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. The last monthly level low was 4205, which formed during June. However, we still remain above key support 4663 on a closing basis.
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