I agree that most distribution paying companies are perceived to be able to sustain a single digit yield. 7% for instance is good theses days. Ordinary dividend payers need only to shoot for a lower number to be held in high regard. HOWEVER, this is a variable rate payer that starts with the premise that the D will go up or down based on factors we know to be familiar in refining, ...input costs, logistics, regulations, and seasonal demand. Throw away the book.
When I first bought into the variable idea with Northern Tier it was touted by Keith Schaefer (without giving up the ticker) and I search the clues to figure out what company he was talking about. NTI was paying over 20% yield, and trading around $20. It was obvious he was talking about the little refinery in S. St. Paul. Thanks Keith, and sorry I didn't buy the subscription to your newsletter.
NTI yield remained high for the whole period before the crash of crude oil, and ALDW was there as well. Even CVRR paid some fat distributions then. Now only ALDW remains as a decent payer in the patch and Carl can only offer excuses?...!
The advantage created by a combination of law forbidding crude export, new shale regions with rapid discovery and boom towns in out of the way places, Like N.D., with little infrastructure to support and expedite oil, gave us the great spread and margins. It was too good to last, but was a great run with NTI. Buffet bought the railroad to capitalize on the lack of pipelines, and was quiet about the rash of accidents and fires... Adjustment time brought stronger rail cars and better track maintenance.
The only thing for certain is change. it was too good to last, but great while it lasted.
ALDW is poised to grow the distribution with the positive factors coming together the rest of this year. But IMO the market considers it risky, volatile, and it falls onto day traders screens, if any and with others it hits the "never mind" pile.
They are too focused on the big tickers in the C corp world, which I consider worthless mostly because the laws have given them the power to overpay the insiders, ignore the shareholders, award themselves stupid bonuses and use their cash to buy favors from corrupt lawmakers. Thanks but no thanks. I will stick with the better reward and believe the risk is not higher than mob mentality stocks with high P/E ratios. Companies with tiny earnings compared to their triple digit prices per share scare me more.
JMO
-pete
"You’ve got to be very careful if you don’t know where you are going because you might not get there."
"The future ain’t what it used to be" "A nickel ain’t worth a dime anymore."
-so long Yogi, we will miss you-
