NY Crude Oil Futures By Marty Armstrong | July 15, 2017
Analysis for the Week of July 17, 2017
A trend change appears likely to develop come this month in NY Crude Oil Futures at least on a closing basis if not intraday so pay attention. The key week ahead for a turning point is 7/10. Last month produced a low at 4205 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 4917 to 4205. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. Yet, keep in mind that this market has declined for 8 years since the historical high made back in 2008. Since that reactionary low, this market has bounced for one year from that turning point made back in 2016. As of the close of Mon. Jul. 10, 2017, the market is immediately in a neutral posture near-term for now on the daily level. NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 4440 so far is trading down about 17% for the year from last year's closing of 5372. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 3 days, while we have made a low at 4365 following the high established Wed. Jul. 5, 2017.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of June 19th at 4205, which was down 4 weeks from the high made back during the week of May 22nd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of June 19th, which has been a move of 11% percent.
Critical support still underlies this market at 4357 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a decline ahead becomes possible.
Expansively, my long-term view looking forward recognizes that the current bearish progression in NY Crude Oil Futures reflects only a temporary reaction within a broader bull market trend since we have not elected any Yearly sell signals on our model. Furthermore, the NY Crude Oil Futures remains somewhat neutral at this present moment trading within last year's range of 5451 and 2605. Only a closing above last year's high will signal a breakout long-term and a penetration of last year's low will signal the final move into a low lies ahead.
Presently, we have made a reaction low in 2016 which was a 8 year decline. Since that reaction low of 2016, this market has bounced so far this year, but it remains still within last year's trading range of 5451 to 2605. There remains a long-term risk of a decline extending into 2018 in real terms adjusted for inflation. Only if new lows unfold beyond that target in time is it possible to extend the decline as far out as 2021.
To date, this market has not breached any long-term support which begins at 3210 on an annual closing basis. So far, this market has remained in a bearish tone since the 14727 major high established back in 2008.
Eyeing the immediate momentum is Bearish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of June 26th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 5451. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, the last week of 7/3 was an outside reversal to the downside which is warning of a bearish immediate trend.
While the market made a new low last month, our energy models turned up. This warns we may be preparing to rally. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Aiming on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 6 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 5200, which was created during the week of May 22nd. The last weekly level low was 4205, which formed during the week of June 19th. However, we still remain above key support 4376 on a closing basis. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Eyeballing the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 months. The last high on the monthly level was 5524, which was created during January. The last monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 4663 above the market.
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