Tuesday, June 20, 2017 8:27:50 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 06/14 2017 EOD
Everything I see suggests near-term weakening as most likely, but ...
We may be in a "Three-day pop window" with the results of the price action alone giving a pretty good hint as to the flavor of the trading and short-term sentiment. In a couple days I expect we'll see trading return to more normal. TA might be more useful then. Until then I can't have a lot of confidence in what is seen, although neither can I discount it a just an effect of the three-day window.
Today did a big early drop, recovered a small amount and then a predominantly sideways move into a lower close. There were a lot of extremely low/no-volume periods frequently interrupted by a lot of high-volume one or two-minute spikes that generally were responsible for what movements up or down occurred.
I believe the ATM was in heavy use and the reported results reported yesterday were not as favorable as last evening's AH trading suggested.
Checking the short percentage below, I see a reading that would suggest to me the ATM because if a large part of the selling was from short-term traders that bought in leading up to the report there would be a large portion of unsettled shares being sold, which by SEC rule would require a short flag unless the trade was intra-broker, which to me it seems unlikely to be a large portion of those short-term trades.
There was one pre-market sell of 1.6K for $0.75.
B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7601/$0.80.
09:30-09:36 opened the day with a 34,430 buy for $0.80 & $0.80 x 50, $0.7997 x 4, $0.79 x 250, $0.795 x 300, x 300 $0.80 x 150, $0.795 x 300, $0.78 x 1K, $0.80 x 1.4K, $0.79 x 2K, $0.795 x 300, x 11.5K, $0.80 x 275, x 275, x 3,993, $0.7801 x 30, $0.78 x 19, $0.7935 x 25, $0.7804 x 4K, $0.78 x 300, $0.7821 x 300, $0.80 x 1, and $0.7817 x 200, $0.78 x 200. B/a just after open was 300:100 $0.7450/$0.7699. Then came 9:31's 10.9K $0.7800 (1.3K)/$0.75 (5.9K)/01 (1.9K)/23/$0.7601/$0.7500/09/$0.7450/62/88/50/51, 9:32's 6.7K $0.7240 (400)/$0.7301 (5,7K)/00/$0.7412/28, 9:33's 130 $0.7501, 9:34's 21.4K $0.7654 (5K)/$0.7500 (10K)/23/$0.7654 (3K)/$0.75 (3.1K), 9:35's 6.4K $0.7500 (2.6K)/24 (3K)/25/$0.7480. The period ended on 9:36's 16.7K $0.6900/$0.7400 (3.1K)/$0.7047/$0.7400 (400)/$0.6900/03 (6K)/00.
09:37-10:22 began mixed no/medium/low-volume wide-spread $0.7203/$0.7567 after 9:37-:38's 200 $0.7325 and 1.5K $0.7131. B/a at 9:43 was 3:100 $0.7245/$0.7599 (bids backed by presented 7.2K $0.72), 9:53 25:100 $0.7211/$0.7599 ((bids backed by presented 7.2K $0.7225), 10:03 133:9.7K $0.73/5, 10:21 100:1K $0.7300/99. The period ended on 10:22's 642 $0.7252/$0.73 (100).
10:23-11:32, after one no-trades minute, began with a drop followed by a mixed-volume sag down on 10:24's 12K $0.7399 (2K)/$0.7200 (8.2K)/08 (900)/52(500)/00/08, 10:25'a 19.2K $0.7400 (1.1K)/$0.7397 (1K)/90 (1K)/$0.7400/48 (783)/$0.7170 (10K)/$0.7208 (1.7K/$0.7010 (1K)/$0.7200 (700)/$0.7100/$0.7208/$0.7017/$0.7400/$0.7300/$0.7200/$0.7101. B/a at 10:32 was 8K:800 $0.7060/99. A $0.7103/$0.7199 flattish period, with falling highs, began 10:34's 18.8K $0.71 (10K)/$0.7092 (1.4K)/$0.7298 (4.4K)/99 (3K0. B/a at was 10:47 3.7K:400 $0.7104/$0.73, 11:02 1K:400 $0.7105/$0.73, 11:17 200:3.4K $0.7106/99. The period ended on 11:32's 1.5K $0.7104 (3.7K)/1 (1.5K)4/7/6.
11:33-12:38 began mostly low-volume $0.7071/$0.7112, but for the price and volume interruption by 12:18's 33.1K $0.7195 (21K blk)/00 (8/9K)/$0.7072 (1.4K)/97 (1.1K)/$0.71 (1K)/$0.7072 (600), on 11:35's 19.3K $0.7070 (blk). B/a at 11:37 was 10.1K:2.9K $0.7070/$0.72, 12:02 1.6K:3.1K $0.7071/2, 12:19 1.1K:1K $0.7071/$0.7195, 12:32 400:400 $0.7088/$0.7195. The period ended on 12:38's 10.6K $0.7071 (5K)/$0.7103 (3.4K)/$0.7088 (400)/$0.7103 (500)/$0.7088/$0.7073.
12:39-15:49, after three no-trades minutes, began a long flattish mostly low-volume, with the usual 1-minute volume spikes, $0.7072/$0.7199, on 12:42's 2.5K $0.7199. B/a at 12:46 was 1.1K:2.9K $0.7071/$0.72, 13:02 1.2K:2.9K $0.7071/$0.72, 13:17 10K:5K $0.7100/99. Volume was interrupted by 13:21-:22's 5K $0.7165 and 10.6K $0.7100/5 (600). 13:47 113:1.1K $0.7101/2, 14:02 100:1.5K $0.7109/10, 14:17 6.5K:5K $0.7110/99. Volume was interrupted by 14:22's 8.9K $0.7111. B/a at 14:32 was 100:2,9K $0.7111/$0.72, 14:50 100:2.9K $0.7185/$0.72, 15:02 100:2.9K $0.7185/$0.72. Volume was interrupted by 15:08's 20.1K $0.7185/$0.7110 (10.1K)/18 (3.7K)/10 (1K)/13 (900)/10 (2.5K)/13 (600)/10 (600)/13/85/10. B/a at 15:17 was 200:1.3K $0.7111/99, 15:32 100:1K $0.7111/99. Volume was interrupted by 15:42's 22.8K $0.7110 (22.7K blk)/1. B/a at 15:47 was 10.9K:1.9K $0.7110/96. the period ended on 15:49's 2.7K $0.7113/0 (2.3K)/1/0.
15:50-16:00 began mixed variable no/medium/high-volume $0.7110/$0.72 on 15:50's 23.2K $0.7189 (700)/95/80/95/99/89/80/99/80/95/12/95/80/95/80/99/12/80/95/99/89/99/80/95/80/89/95/81/95/99/81/99/97/89 (4.3K)/99 (2.9K)/89 (2.9K)/89 (2.1K)/$0.7200 (2.1K)/00 (800)/$0.7152/$0.7189/$0.7252/$0.7152/52. The period and day ended on 15:59's 200 $0.7198 and 16:00's 15.4K buy for $0.7198.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 41 larger trades (>=5K & 12 4K+) totaling 378,293, 59.20% of day's volume, with a $0.7323 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 39 larger trades totaling 343,863, 53.82% of day's volume, with a $0.7255 VWAP. For day's volume the count is reasonable to the high side and the percentage of day's volume is high. The VWAPs are above and below, respectively, the day's $0.7290 VWAP. Considering today's big down behavior from a very high price range yesterday I feel two things are at play here. As described near the top of today's post, I believe the ATM was in heavy use.
The larger trades aren't telling us much useful today, other than the again relatively even distribution throughout the day suggests folks on both sides of the trade were committed to their positions as VWAP declined. A SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess) as to who was doing what, other than traders and investors selling, would be shorters hammering and maybe doing some covering buys, although doing that this early in what is likely to be a larger fall seems unlikely.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { ... Today we also pushed up and closed above the longer-term rising past support/resistance (rising orange line). This offers the possibility of another confirmed breakout, especially since it's on rising volume.
But do consider my concern about "blow-off top" above. }
YIKES! Today was a big down on big volume, although it was lower than yesterdays volume. All the bullish indications suggested yesterday were obliterated in a decisive fashion. I guess my irrational fears should have carried more weight.
Referencing a note I added yesterday, { ... I think a sudden re-trace becomes more likely because DJ will have a hard time resisting garnering more cash at these (artificially?) elevated prices. If there's any warrant holders in the money they will likely also look to take advantage. } I'll never know if any of this had an effect but I do want to assure that the possibility is included in our considerations.
Trade range was about 1/3rd below the now-falling fast EMA and close below it's $0.7287. The slow EMA, at $0.6878, is still rising. Our low of $0.69 was quite near that.
Yesterday I noted { We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the seventh day now. yesterday I was still not concerned, manipulation, run up to earnings and all. Today I'm starting to get that queasy feeling that this is all too good to be true. } Well, it looks like I should have paid heed to that queasy feeling. Today we are still pushing it but the price action and lower close on rising volume makes me think our history is repeating - pushing the upper limit most often doesn't end well.
Discussing the volume bars' "cupping pattern", I had been good with it until yesterday when I noted { ... been seeing that as a positive and yesterday held ... Today not so much. ... I'm definitely concerned that this may have exhausted buyers and, along with price levels, attracted shorters. ... Worse, if the buyers were short-term traders enticed by various price/volume alert issuances, they will likely dump as quickly as possible if any weakness appears. This can have a very quick cascading effect. }
I can't speak with authority to the cause, but the behavior today could fit these scenarios.
On my one-year chart, for the fourth consecutive day we traded completely above the rising 10 and 20-day SMAs. Yesterday our trading range was completely above the 50-day SMA and today the range was 80% above it and the close remained above the 50-day's $0.7075. The 50-day to gave up yesterday's rise and declined slightly. That leaves the 10 and 20-days still rising while the 50-day returns to falling along with the 200-day. Readings for the 10, 20, 50 and 200 are $0.6871, $0.6629, $0.7075 and $0.8977 respectively.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every oscillator, including accumulation/distribution, which is a bit unusual. Everything but accumulation/distribution was above neutral and in overbought were RSI, MFi (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic.
Today had weakening in every oscillator I watch. Of the ones in overbought, only MFI (untrusted by me) remains so. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral while all others are still above neutral.
I said yesterday { This configuration often puts folks on alert, feeling a correction is nigh, but things can stay overbought longer than one might expect. On this stock that would be a surprise to me though. } It looks like folks decided the overbought was too compelling for folks to remain optimistic as even though there was a higher high, there was a lower low and close on high volume. The volume fell compared to yesterday but it's still high enough to suggest strength in a move lower.
I somewhat expected we might get a typical three-day window wherein we saw some strength hold up relatively well before any reversal began, but I guess the reported results just weren't positive enough.
I guess we shouldn't overlook the possibility that the ATM may have been in use while prices were elevated compared to recent ranges. We saw in the reporting a big share increase in the reported quarter so there's no reason to expect the ATM use has ceased.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.5836 and $0.7627 ($0.5784 and $0.7542 yesterday), are both rising, yielding a rising mid-point. With current trading range pushing the upper limit our history would suggest a move lower to at least the mid-point, wherever that would be a few days down the road. Today makes the eighth day price has been "pushing" that limit.
All in, yesterday I said { the only possible negative is my (irrational?) concern with the large volume spike combined with elevated price and knowledge that DJ has been hitting the ATM. Well, there is more. The fast price rise should be attracting shorters and if the market doesn't like the results reporting I think shorters will pile on, along with many, I suspect, short-term traders rushing for the exit at the first sign of weakness. This may also be an irrational fear. The only evidence of short-term traders is the volume/price behavior and that could be just ATM/shorters. There's little recent evidence of heavy shorting though so if they are involved they may be doing covering buys into the reporting JIC. That would apply some upward pressure.
Having said all that, based purely on the technical stuff, I would have to remain bullish near-term. Adding in my concerns would make me no better than agnostic as I would be in "wait and see" mode. That's where I settle today - wait and see. }
Today makes me think irrationality shouldn't be so cavalierly dismissed. The relatively high volume on a down day with a lower low and close, the deterioration seen in the intra-day breakdown above, and the conventional TA oscillators unanimous weakening move me out of "wait and see" to "Uh-oh. This doesn't look good". I expect near-term weakening as most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, which should be the norm and "good", but the short percentage moved further below my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage made a large-magnitude move into a range strongly suggestive of near-term weakening.
The spread nearly doubled and suggest near-term movement, in this case lower, as very likely.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the second consecutive day at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 05/10 is $0.0784, 12.05%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.5035%, 0.6348%, 0.3385%,0.1182% and -0.0514%, -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, and -0.7567%.
All in, everything here suggests near-term weakening as most likely.
Bill
Everything I see suggests near-term weakening as most likely, but ...
We may be in a "Three-day pop window" with the results of the price action alone giving a pretty good hint as to the flavor of the trading and short-term sentiment. In a couple days I expect we'll see trading return to more normal. TA might be more useful then. Until then I can't have a lot of confidence in what is seen, although neither can I discount it a just an effect of the three-day window.
Today did a big early drop, recovered a small amount and then a predominantly sideways move into a lower close. There were a lot of extremely low/no-volume periods frequently interrupted by a lot of high-volume one or two-minute spikes that generally were responsible for what movements up or down occurred.
I believe the ATM was in heavy use and the reported results reported yesterday were not as favorable as last evening's AH trading suggested.
Checking the short percentage below, I see a reading that would suggest to me the ATM because if a large part of the selling was from short-term traders that bought in leading up to the report there would be a large portion of unsettled shares being sold, which by SEC rule would require a short flag unless the trade was intra-broker, which to me it seems unlikely to be a large portion of those short-term trades.
There was one pre-market sell of 1.6K for $0.75.
B/a just before open was 100:100 $0.7601/$0.80.
09:30-09:36 opened the day with a 34,430 buy for $0.80 & $0.80 x 50, $0.7997 x 4, $0.79 x 250, $0.795 x 300, x 300 $0.80 x 150, $0.795 x 300, $0.78 x 1K, $0.80 x 1.4K, $0.79 x 2K, $0.795 x 300, x 11.5K, $0.80 x 275, x 275, x 3,993, $0.7801 x 30, $0.78 x 19, $0.7935 x 25, $0.7804 x 4K, $0.78 x 300, $0.7821 x 300, $0.80 x 1, and $0.7817 x 200, $0.78 x 200. B/a just after open was 300:100 $0.7450/$0.7699. Then came 9:31's 10.9K $0.7800 (1.3K)/$0.75 (5.9K)/01 (1.9K)/23/$0.7601/$0.7500/09/$0.7450/62/88/50/51, 9:32's 6.7K $0.7240 (400)/$0.7301 (5,7K)/00/$0.7412/28, 9:33's 130 $0.7501, 9:34's 21.4K $0.7654 (5K)/$0.7500 (10K)/23/$0.7654 (3K)/$0.75 (3.1K), 9:35's 6.4K $0.7500 (2.6K)/24 (3K)/25/$0.7480. The period ended on 9:36's 16.7K $0.6900/$0.7400 (3.1K)/$0.7047/$0.7400 (400)/$0.6900/03 (6K)/00.
09:37-10:22 began mixed no/medium/low-volume wide-spread $0.7203/$0.7567 after 9:37-:38's 200 $0.7325 and 1.5K $0.7131. B/a at 9:43 was 3:100 $0.7245/$0.7599 (bids backed by presented 7.2K $0.72), 9:53 25:100 $0.7211/$0.7599 ((bids backed by presented 7.2K $0.7225), 10:03 133:9.7K $0.73/5, 10:21 100:1K $0.7300/99. The period ended on 10:22's 642 $0.7252/$0.73 (100).
10:23-11:32, after one no-trades minute, began with a drop followed by a mixed-volume sag down on 10:24's 12K $0.7399 (2K)/$0.7200 (8.2K)/08 (900)/52(500)/00/08, 10:25'a 19.2K $0.7400 (1.1K)/$0.7397 (1K)/90 (1K)/$0.7400/48 (783)/$0.7170 (10K)/$0.7208 (1.7K/$0.7010 (1K)/$0.7200 (700)/$0.7100/$0.7208/$0.7017/$0.7400/$0.7300/$0.7200/$0.7101. B/a at 10:32 was 8K:800 $0.7060/99. A $0.7103/$0.7199 flattish period, with falling highs, began 10:34's 18.8K $0.71 (10K)/$0.7092 (1.4K)/$0.7298 (4.4K)/99 (3K0. B/a at was 10:47 3.7K:400 $0.7104/$0.73, 11:02 1K:400 $0.7105/$0.73, 11:17 200:3.4K $0.7106/99. The period ended on 11:32's 1.5K $0.7104 (3.7K)/1 (1.5K)4/7/6.
11:33-12:38 began mostly low-volume $0.7071/$0.7112, but for the price and volume interruption by 12:18's 33.1K $0.7195 (21K blk)/00 (8/9K)/$0.7072 (1.4K)/97 (1.1K)/$0.71 (1K)/$0.7072 (600), on 11:35's 19.3K $0.7070 (blk). B/a at 11:37 was 10.1K:2.9K $0.7070/$0.72, 12:02 1.6K:3.1K $0.7071/2, 12:19 1.1K:1K $0.7071/$0.7195, 12:32 400:400 $0.7088/$0.7195. The period ended on 12:38's 10.6K $0.7071 (5K)/$0.7103 (3.4K)/$0.7088 (400)/$0.7103 (500)/$0.7088/$0.7073.
12:39-15:49, after three no-trades minutes, began a long flattish mostly low-volume, with the usual 1-minute volume spikes, $0.7072/$0.7199, on 12:42's 2.5K $0.7199. B/a at 12:46 was 1.1K:2.9K $0.7071/$0.72, 13:02 1.2K:2.9K $0.7071/$0.72, 13:17 10K:5K $0.7100/99. Volume was interrupted by 13:21-:22's 5K $0.7165 and 10.6K $0.7100/5 (600). 13:47 113:1.1K $0.7101/2, 14:02 100:1.5K $0.7109/10, 14:17 6.5K:5K $0.7110/99. Volume was interrupted by 14:22's 8.9K $0.7111. B/a at 14:32 was 100:2,9K $0.7111/$0.72, 14:50 100:2.9K $0.7185/$0.72, 15:02 100:2.9K $0.7185/$0.72. Volume was interrupted by 15:08's 20.1K $0.7185/$0.7110 (10.1K)/18 (3.7K)/10 (1K)/13 (900)/10 (2.5K)/13 (600)/10 (600)/13/85/10. B/a at 15:17 was 200:1.3K $0.7111/99, 15:32 100:1K $0.7111/99. Volume was interrupted by 15:42's 22.8K $0.7110 (22.7K blk)/1. B/a at 15:47 was 10.9K:1.9K $0.7110/96. the period ended on 15:49's 2.7K $0.7113/0 (2.3K)/1/0.
15:50-16:00 began mixed variable no/medium/high-volume $0.7110/$0.72 on 15:50's 23.2K $0.7189 (700)/95/80/95/99/89/80/99/80/95/12/95/80/95/80/99/12/80/95/99/89/99/80/95/80/89/95/81/95/99/81/99/97/89 (4.3K)/99 (2.9K)/89 (2.9K)/89 (2.1K)/$0.7200 (2.1K)/00 (800)/$0.7152/$0.7189/$0.7252/$0.7152/52. The period and day ended on 15:59's 200 $0.7198 and 16:00's 15.4K buy for $0.7198.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening and closing trades, there were 41 larger trades (>=5K & 12 4K+) totaling 378,293, 59.20% of day's volume, with a $0.7323 VWAP. Excluding the opening and closing trades, there were 39 larger trades totaling 343,863, 53.82% of day's volume, with a $0.7255 VWAP. For day's volume the count is reasonable to the high side and the percentage of day's volume is high. The VWAPs are above and below, respectively, the day's $0.7290 VWAP. Considering today's big down behavior from a very high price range yesterday I feel two things are at play here. As described near the top of today's post, I believe the ATM was in heavy use.
The larger trades aren't telling us much useful today, other than the again relatively even distribution throughout the day suggests folks on both sides of the trade were committed to their positions as VWAP declined. A SWAG (Scientific Wild-Assed Guess) as to who was doing what, other than traders and investors selling, would be shorters hammering and maybe doing some covering buys, although doing that this early in what is likely to be a larger fall seems unlikely.
There's decent correlation between buy percentage and VWAP movements. Trend was down all day.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:29 4000 $0.7500 $0.7900 $3,096.00 $0.7740 0.63% 60.28%
09:36 148946 $0.6900 $0.8000 $114,862.38 $0.7712 23.31% 43.63% Incl 09:30 $0.8000 34,430 3,993 $0.7950 11,500
09:30 $0.7935 24,696
09:32 $0.7301 5,700 09:34 $0.7654 5,000
09:34 $0.7500 5,000 5,000
09:36 $0.6900 6,500 $0.6903 6,000
10:22 70491 $0.7131 $0.7567 $51,214.38 $0.7265 11.03% 36.77% Incl 09:39 $0.7333 4,901 $0.7500 4,099
09:45 $0.7203 9,200 09:53 $0.7207 4,000
10:03 $0.7203 4,596 $0.7208 8,300
11:32 155586 $0.7010 $0.7448 $111,300.33 $0.7154 24.35% 30.02% Incl 10:24 $0.7200 6,100 10:25 $0.7170 10,000
10:27 $0.7100 20,000 10:33 $0.7060 4,500
10:34 $0.7100 9,100 $0.7298 4,400
10:48 $0.7117 4,600 $0.7199 9,200
10:50 $0.7116 9,500 10:58 $0.7104 4,700
10:58 $0.7104 6,642 11:12 $0.7200 11,800
12:38 96369 $0.7070 $0.7195 $68,471.94 $0.7105 15.08% 32.38% Incl 11:35 $0.7070 19,300 12:18 $0.7100 5,000
12:18 $0.7195 20,087 12:33 $0.7112 8,000
12:38 $0.7071 5,008
15:49 106281 $0.7072 $0.7199 $75,758.90 $0.7128 16.63% 33.11% Incl 13:21 $0.7165 4,980 13:22 $0.7100 10,000
14:22 $0.7111 4,096 15:08 $0.7110 10,100
15:42 $0.7110 22,700
16:00 53866 $0.7100 $0.7252 $38,621.80 $0.7170 8.43% 35.15% Incl 15:50 $0.7189 4,300 15:52 $0.7110 5,813
16:00 $0.7198 15,452
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The pre-results trend upward has been broken.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 7.79% -4.17% 2.56% -7.12% -37.09%
Prior 3.08% 2.86% 6.12% 7.34% 155.47%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { ... Today we also pushed up and closed above the longer-term rising past support/resistance (rising orange line). This offers the possibility of another confirmed breakout, especially since it's on rising volume.
But do consider my concern about "blow-off top" above. }
YIKES! Today was a big down on big volume, although it was lower than yesterdays volume. All the bullish indications suggested yesterday were obliterated in a decisive fashion. I guess my irrational fears should have carried more weight.
Referencing a note I added yesterday, { ... I think a sudden re-trace becomes more likely because DJ will have a hard time resisting garnering more cash at these (artificially?) elevated prices. If there's any warrant holders in the money they will likely also look to take advantage. } I'll never know if any of this had an effect but I do want to assure that the possibility is included in our considerations.
Trade range was about 1/3rd below the now-falling fast EMA and close below it's $0.7287. The slow EMA, at $0.6878, is still rising. Our low of $0.69 was quite near that.
Yesterday I noted { We are still pushing the experimental 13-period Bollinger band upper limit - for the seventh day now. yesterday I was still not concerned, manipulation, run up to earnings and all. Today I'm starting to get that queasy feeling that this is all too good to be true. } Well, it looks like I should have paid heed to that queasy feeling. Today we are still pushing it but the price action and lower close on rising volume makes me think our history is repeating - pushing the upper limit most often doesn't end well.
Discussing the volume bars' "cupping pattern", I had been good with it until yesterday when I noted { ... been seeing that as a positive and yesterday held ... Today not so much. ... I'm definitely concerned that this may have exhausted buyers and, along with price levels, attracted shorters. ... Worse, if the buyers were short-term traders enticed by various price/volume alert issuances, they will likely dump as quickly as possible if any weakness appears. This can have a very quick cascading effect. }
I can't speak with authority to the cause, but the behavior today could fit these scenarios.
On my one-year chart, for the fourth consecutive day we traded completely above the rising 10 and 20-day SMAs. Yesterday our trading range was completely above the 50-day SMA and today the range was 80% above it and the close remained above the 50-day's $0.7075. The 50-day to gave up yesterday's rise and declined slightly. That leaves the 10 and 20-days still rising while the 50-day returns to falling along with the 200-day. Readings for the 10, 20, 50 and 200 are $0.6871, $0.6629, $0.7075 and $0.8977 respectively.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in every oscillator, including accumulation/distribution, which is a bit unusual. Everything but accumulation/distribution was above neutral and in overbought were RSI, MFi (untrusted by me), Williams %R and full stochastic.
Today had weakening in every oscillator I watch. Of the ones in overbought, only MFI (untrusted by me) remains so. Accumulation/distribution and ADX-related are below neutral while all others are still above neutral.
I said yesterday { This configuration often puts folks on alert, feeling a correction is nigh, but things can stay overbought longer than one might expect. On this stock that would be a surprise to me though. } It looks like folks decided the overbought was too compelling for folks to remain optimistic as even though there was a higher high, there was a lower low and close on high volume. The volume fell compared to yesterday but it's still high enough to suggest strength in a move lower.
I somewhat expected we might get a typical three-day window wherein we saw some strength hold up relatively well before any reversal began, but I guess the reported results just weren't positive enough.
I guess we shouldn't overlook the possibility that the ATM may have been in use while prices were elevated compared to recent ranges. We saw in the reporting a big share increase in the reported quarter so there's no reason to expect the ATM use has ceased.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.5836 and $0.7627 ($0.5784 and $0.7542 yesterday), are both rising, yielding a rising mid-point. With current trading range pushing the upper limit our history would suggest a move lower to at least the mid-point, wherever that would be a few days down the road. Today makes the eighth day price has been "pushing" that limit.
All in, yesterday I said { the only possible negative is my (irrational?) concern with the large volume spike combined with elevated price and knowledge that DJ has been hitting the ATM. Well, there is more. The fast price rise should be attracting shorters and if the market doesn't like the results reporting I think shorters will pile on, along with many, I suspect, short-term traders rushing for the exit at the first sign of weakness. This may also be an irrational fear. The only evidence of short-term traders is the volume/price behavior and that could be just ATM/shorters. There's little recent evidence of heavy shorting though so if they are involved they may be doing covering buys into the reporting JIC. That would apply some upward pressure.
Having said all that, based purely on the technical stuff, I would have to remain bullish near-term. Adding in my concerns would make me no better than agnostic as I would be in "wait and see" mode. That's where I settle today - wait and see. }
Today makes me think irrationality shouldn't be so cavalierly dismissed. The relatively high volume on a down day with a lower low and close, the deterioration seen in the intra-day breakdown above, and the conventional TA oscillators unanimous weakening move me out of "wait and see" to "Uh-oh. This doesn't look good". I expect near-term weakening as most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, which should be the norm and "good", but the short percentage moved further below my desired range (needs re-check) while the buy percentage made a large-magnitude move into a range strongly suggestive of near-term weakening.
The spread nearly doubled and suggest near-term movement, in this case lower, as very likely.
The VWAP's rolling average of the last twenty-four movements held steady for the second consecutive day at 13 negatives and 11 positives. Change since 05/10 is $0.0784, 12.05%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.5035%, 0.6348%, 0.3385%,0.1182% and -0.0514%, -0.2146%, -0.2079%, -0.3689%, -0.6415%, and -0.7567%.
All in, everything here suggests near-term weakening as most likely.
Bill
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