Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc (ALDX)

[seventhwave]

"vehicle/placebo showed a greater than expected effect" is a phrase everyone fears in clinical testing and can often be a dealkiller. Trials designed to test against an inert placebo may seem like easy slam dunks (vs. active SOC) until the trial design is violated in practice and the fail is uncovered only after unblinding at the fag end. Happened to ITEK when some patients in just 2 trial sites figured they got the placebo and helped themselves to alt. treatment undisclosed while on the trial. If something similar happened with the ALDX p2a trial, thankfully their 0.5% dose was strong enough to hit the ball out of the park in every instance to render the trial a success regardless of placebo 'outperformance.' If there is similar placebo activity in p2b, I'm pretty sure the 0.1% arm will not beat it. I'm not sure how the market will read this outcome and not optimistic of a favorable interpretation. I wish the comparator arm was the current SOC to avoid trial abuse.
I've quadrupled down here and will take half off the table before readout. Not expecting a rapid/robust bounce-back as ALDX has relatively few deep-pocketed/fluid sponsors but it will climb over May & June into announcement. In this unreal market, investors are the tail wagging the market dog and the trail the price traces is more their imprint than an efficient reflection of co. fundamentals.