Great post,Biostockclub...
....so many valuable points to consider.really worth reading twice.
Ive been so busy analyzing charts that I sometimes fall behind in reading other's posts,who are doing analysis of the science and the financial politics of company developments,etc. I started to catch up Biostock, by reading one really good analysis you did the other day, then I said, damn,I have to go read them all now to catch up...
because I'm sensing that your spidey sense of potential unease, is the same as my own,from looking at the stock chart, while you analyze the fundamental developments.
There could be a dovetailing here,which is a good thing for really understanding an equity,as the share price forecast,alongside the fundamental forecast, logically should dovetail,and move with a synchronicity.
Certain aspects of the fundamental story developing, like the decision not to release expected data....and that causes a waning momentum in the rally, other fundamental movements that appear to be a stumbling, and the share price tumbles to lower targets.
But these complex analytics,youre describing, it IS the kind of analysis I do with charting,in my head,alas I don't have a supercomputer. It would be fascinating to see how one of those computers works.
The interesting examples and analogies you gave,were just scratching the surface, and you could have added many more layers to the data processing and logic.
I want to remember one of the key points to take away from your commentary...which is that in this system of data analysis, and the fact that more time devoted to the study should yield more clear and critical insight, understanding, breakthrough development, etc... a better success probability,and to the extent that this system is a different approach to scientific development,I want to place a positive value on the "time factor,the passage of more time, which is often a negative factor for share price patterns,the longer a rally doesn't happen the greater the odds are for a downwave instead. a retest of the lower targets, instead of rally momentum... its easy for bullish momentum to fizzle out.as time lines are reached , as news conferences come and go , and rallies fizzle like the one we just had.
Maybe this new type analytic system needs a new way of thinking ,as an investor and trader.
I think this is a big theme for me,in all my analysis of charts, I'm always wondering how is the science and the company developing in relation to the share price development. What has happened in the last year and a half, with the science,that would 'cause' the share price to surge from 2 dollars to 14.84 and then collapse back to 2.43. What would make the share price surge from 3 dollars to 8 and then back to 3 and back to 8 ,in that kind of pattern....and do the wall street powers that manipulate the share price have such control of the share price that this is the kind of volatility we should expect to see most of the time, regardless of what the science is doing.regardless of what Missling is doing.
I have been able to do accurate chart analysis without studying the science or the financial development. Instead,I focus on what wall street seems to be doing. on what happens after Adam F makes a Twitter bash. a seeking alpha bash article, or watching how price bleeds down with MM manipulation. and not really even needing to watch that stuff too much either...but by just analyzing the price action on the chart.
What I would like to be able to do,is to combine the fundamental scientific and financial political data that you look at , with the technical mathematic price chart data that I look at ... feed it into a supercomputer and have it highlight the target points on the chart,and the road map tracks that price action is likely to move along.
In the last 3 weeks or so, Ive been seeing how the technical chart has been changing/morphing/ from bullish momentum into bearish/neutral with a short term bearish bias, in a pullback (ongoing) that could stop now and rally again soon, or it could continue downward to lower targets in a greater pullback.
and now, to see your analysis making you feel the same concerns for a stumble and a downwave .... I think we might be on to something.
The chart ,in my view, right now sits at a very critical balance point,with price holding at 5.60 and looking up at overhead resistance from 5.80-6.30 and all steps in between, the bias is for Resistance to show strength, to make an effort to keep Capping price at the 6 dollar zone and if that happens the momentum would favor selling efforts to take price down to lower targets (5.50/5.37/5.30/5.17/5.00/4.90/4.80/4.70 area/4.50 area/4.40 base camp.)
I might ask you , regarding the current balance point for price on the chart, Is there a corresponding "critical balance point" in the current science, or financial fundamentals, or financial/political process,or some aspect of critical company development that would correspond to this being a moment of tipping point for the company moving into the next cycle. a key inflection point in science development, something like this, a key moment in financial development, (dilution coming? yes ? no? maybe?) the shareholders voting,an inflection point? critical decisions now for the management? etc.... the chart is sitting here now at a critical inflection point,in the price zone (5.60-5.80-6.00)
and could go either way next week.
Is there anything very positive in the fundamental development right now,that could get released as news,that would cause a surging rally next week. to end the month of April, and continue into early May? that would generate the rally to target 7 dollars and 8 dollars like what the chart is showing? or else..... is there anything negative about the company development right now, that could generate the next 1 dollar or 1.50 Plunging downwave from 6.00 to 5.00-4.50 as a downwave target.
There is a 1.00-1.50 movement waiting to begin on the chart right now. Either a rally from 5.50 to 7.00 (5.60-7.10) (5.90-7.40) etc or a downwave from 6.00-4.50 (6.30-4.80) 6.50-5.00) etc
The chart's next movement looks to me, like it could go either direction. and it sits on the fence post now waiting to be pushed.
