Organovo Holdings, Inc. (ONVO)

[WHP03]

Nicely said....

The new guys is being handed a cold revenue stream, at best. I agree that revenues are everything today, tomorrow and in the future.

If by some good fortune they come in at mid-2017 guidance that will put them at roughly $682,000 in total Q4 revenues (and the company said don't look for collaboration $s). So that means, optimistically Q4 revs = Q3, which equaled Q1. Given that they indicated $500-$750K of Q4 revs will be delayed into Q1, I personally don't believe they will hit mid-guidance. I suspect their revenues will be < $500,000 in total, nearly all from service revenue. I wouldn't be surprised if <$400,000.

For the NEW GUY, that's a cold start, but there is truly nothing but UPSIDE.

I personally believe they should announce Q4 revs SOONER than later and get the BAD news out of the way. It's going to be bad, admit it, reiterate the money that was left on the table (they said $500-750K) will land in Q1, and GUIDE to NO LESS THAN 2X fiscal 2017 for fiscal 2018, as Keith and IR indicated more than once that shareholders can expect triple digit (2X) growth for years to come.

Failing to guide to at least 2X, especially if $500-750K f fiscal 2017 sales will land in Q1 fiscal 2018, will be worthy of a major backside kicking behind the barn, and associated decline in market cap.

Lots of words can be written, but in the end, it's all about revenues and more importantly rapid revenue growth. As you said, dilution is the enemy, and revenues control dilution (less capital needs to be raised and the capital that is raised will be at a higher cost per share if the company is growing). If the company is not growing - they'll still need to raise capital, but it's going to be at a lower price per share than the last round ($2.75, net $2.50). And that will be painful.

As for Mr Couch's background (patient trials)... I can see that being positive for the liver patch piece of the business... 3-4 yrs down the road. Not so sure I see the fit when it comes to tissue tox testing revenue ramp.. but I'll for now assume the board made a good decision. Mr Couch has a very steep hill to climb, and he has a 200lb backpack full of rocks on his back (large OS count, significant annual burn, company history of negative surprises, and flat QoQ rev growth for a year, assuming they hit mid-guide, but it could actually be worse).

We'll see where this goes... I won't be holding any shares at close before Q4 earnings are announced, assuming the company tells us when they're going to announce. Otherwise, I could be caught holding and I won't enjoy the impact of the news after hours or the next day, I am sure.

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