Spectrum Pharmaceutecals Inc (SPPI)

[antihama]

Revising my sales projection for Evomela upwards to $13.5M from 10.8M. I realized I was comparing apples to oranges in my earlier calculation. I previously used $7M of the 9.4M in sales as actual demand w the other 2.4 as stocking of initial orders by a couple of big hospitals. Where I went wrong is that I used total 3rd Q sales of 5.9M as the actual usage in the 3rd Q but I didn’t take into account stocking of initial orders of drug. If we assume the same ratio of stocking in the 3rd and 4th Qs then 7/9.4 or 75% is actual demand in the 4th Q which makes 75% of 5.9M or 4.425M as actual demand in the 3rd Q. So the actual growth in use from the 2nd to the 3rd Q is 7/4.425 = 58% and not 18.6% as I used previously. That makes actual use in the 1st Q = 1.58 * 7M = 11.06M and let’s assume the same amount of stocking of initial orders of around 2.5M which makes my projected sales in the 1st Q as $13.56M and not 10.8M. Of course, this is all speculation based on the same growth rates as occurred in the previous Qtr. We didn’t have a CC in the 3rd Q so it’s a little more guess work. Looking forward to the 1Q CC to see how on or off this projected $13.5M turns out.