Saturday, March 11, 2017 11:12:00 AM
A/D is supposed to be accumulation and distribution - but it really isn't because it is heavily affected by shorting and wash trading. IMO that second wave down was an attempt to keep the stock down and discourage buying. It occurred at the same time as sector wide move, it affected the valuations of all of my holdings that I expect returns on in the next few months. My interpretation of the move was it was a last ditch efforts by shorts to cover before a biotech bull market.
FTR is a better indication of accumulation and it was bullish around 3/2 and now neutral. MACD is positive, stock is still showing oversold. I don't like the OBV or the ADX still. I don't think you can get a sustainable reversal without those two indicators showing improvement.
Interestingly enough the stock almost hit the "golden cross" 50/200 sma crossover before it dived.
Now I have to move to the 360 minute chart. This is another way of getting rid of end of day paints.
After the initial crash we are seeing more green volume candles than red ones, also a good sign. FTR is snaking up, that is bullish. MACD is green, RSI is improving. That negative bubble in the OBV after 3/7 could be due to manipulative shorting due to the sector move, note that it was improving before that. ADX is narrowing that is a good sign.
Looking at this I would expect the stock to spike with a bullish market (which may come next week or be held to after options expiration on the 17th).
Speaking of options - you have to consider them too. I very much doubt that the stock will be allowed to go over $5 before the 17th. Too much is riding on the options, which are usually...but not always, held by retail.
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