A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[lrp42]

Hi Tf,

If I were you what I would do is look at some history of the VIX Fear Index to make my decision, since XIV does not have as much history as the VIX index and XIV sort of inversely tracks the VIX index.

The VIX index currently has a reading of 11.68, which shows a lot of complacency among investors today.

About 10 years ago, in 2006, the VIX index got as low as 9.5, which is approximately 20% lower than it now is.

On the other hand, as you say, the VIX index can really drop a long way if fear comes back into this market. In 2008 the VIX fear index had a reading almost up to 89. That would be a really long, long drop in value from here.....a lot of fear in the market at that time, as we all can well remember. I can personally remember running out of cash long before the market quit falling.

Another volatility index, The Fear and Greed Index, has a current reading of 80, which is Extreme Greed. At the bottom of this website is a chart of the Index going back around 2 years.

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL

Don't know if any of this helps you in your decision or not.

Best regards,

Ray