Ubiquiti Networks,Inc (UBNT)

[tothe]

UBNT chart up 30% since November

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UBNT&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p34457555859&a=462224336


Basic entry indicators

Choose 3 indicators, one momentum, one trend & one volume. Your watching for trend entry, will retail (AccumDist) support your decision and how strong to expect any move you enter, will be. My choices to fulfill these are StochRSI, DMI and CMF.

StochRSI - overbought and oversold levels in RSI indicates momentum
StochRSI signals Be In the stock or Be Out of the stock.StochRSI shows 2 indications: strength & overbought/oversold, because it graphs like an oscillator.

DMI - price direction / ADX strength indicates trend
ADXis non-directional; it registers trend strength whether price is trending up or down.

ADX Value    Trend Strength 
 0-25         Absent or Weak Trend  
 25-50        Strong Trend  
 50-75        Very Strong Trend  
 75-100       Extremely Strong Trend

CMF - A/D strength divided by volume = pressure indicates volume
CMF is a volume indication good for pressure expected when a move starts.CMF shows pressure. 0 is zero + positive, – negative

MFI - While StochRSI signals Be In the stock or Be Out of the stock. MFI signals Get In or Get Out.
It has a different focus then OBV, Acc/Dist, or CMF. While being in the volume group, because it uses volume in it's formula. It is mainly used for decision making, rather then support.

The support indicators

TOTHE's charting compilation for investor sentiment:

I use the three indicators below to track the sentiment of the different sectors of investors in a stock, their actions on the chart coincide with the actions within these three different sectors of investors/traders:

First... On Balance Volume is the one that tracks insider and registered shareholder money going in and out of the stock, the OBV indicator will go down when different SEC forms are filed showing distribution by insiders (yes, it that “D” in that box on form 4}. Example using the 20 day moving average filter: OBV (EMA 20) trend line up indicates no dilution. Daily spikes of the OBV indicator show settled & unsettled shares, shorting & covering while riding on the MA 14 filter.

Second ... Accumulation/Distribution tracks the individual retail shareholder. many times Accum/Dist will go up while the PPS of a stock is going lower and lower; also while the PPS is going lower, investors on the message board for the stock, will be talking about buying, and how many shares they hold.

Thirdly... Chaikin Oscillator controls the PPS more than the other two.... the PPS will tank when this indicator goes down, even if OBV and Accum/Dist are going up, this fact alone makes know this indicator tracks "the shares" that rule the stock (MMs in other words). OBV, and Accum/Dist can be going up, but until ChiOsc goes up the PPS will stay lower, or continue going down..... ChiOsc can go up before the PPS goes up, indicating that MMs are accumulating before a run. Now that the shorting rule has changed to allow shorting on the way down, they can cover on the way down, this also makes it easier for them to short a stock into the ground.
http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/tomorrow-begins-new-market-rules-for-short-sellers



Note on BB's that I have found after much observation:
The bottom Bollinger Band isn't used to detect shorting, it is a percentage indicator of the PPS movement. The bottom Bollinger will go down fast when a stock has a low beta and makes a significant move. MMs will usually keep the "close of the day" in a tight range to bring the Bottom B Band up to the PPS area before taking the PPS up. A good book to read for Bollinger Bands is "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands" by Bollinger.

Summery
OBV = Insiders, big share holder investors(institutional, etc.) and Registered shareholders (that is; individual shareholders with more than 5% holdings in the company.

Accum/Dist = over the counter individual Retail shareholders with less than 5% of the company stock.

ChiOsc = those who control the stock PPS and chart actions, that being MMs. Try to think of the various MM shops as computer driven algorithms which in reality what they are. This paradigm change in perception may cause trauma to newbie swing-traders who still believe in Santa Claus and that MMs are live people.

These three technical indicators have explanations on StockCharts.com and other places, that tell what they do technically, but they also work to track the buy/sell sentiment of the different sectors of shareholders

The Four Dilution Over Indicators

Watch for OBV, CHiOsc, MFI and Accum/Dist all turning up together... with less weight to Accum/Dist. & more weight to ChiOsc & MFI turning up together.


Basic Trigger Chart

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?chart=UBNT,uu[w,a]dhcly[db][pb5!d20,2][iut!ub5!ua5,15,10!uv8!lk9!ll5!lc15!up5,5][j20444984,y]&r=3555


#1. AROON- 8 You watch as the AROON DOWN crosses the 75 down and the AROON UP comes up from zero. Most important. (\0/)
#2. WILLIAMS%R- 9 You watch the line cross the 50.
#3. CMF- 15 You will usually only see growth when the CMF is in the negative.
#4. ADX/DMI-5 You watch as the D+ line either crosses the D- , or crosses above the 20.
#5. MACD histogram- 5,15,10 You watch the negative bars register -50% smaller then the bar before it, or -50% smaller then the largest in the grouping.
#6. Full Stoch- 5,5 You watch the fast line cross the slow line while the AROON DOWN(8)crosses the 87.50. Crossing the 20 would be best, when the Williams agrees.
#7. Bollinger Band 20,2 You watch for the Magic Box to occur when the negative close touches above the lower bolly and the next day’s close to it is positive growth in a white candle.
#8. RSI 5 you watch as the indicator crosses above the 50 for a quick pop.