The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of March 29, 2016. Change is week-over-week.
Crude oil: Spot West Texas Intermediate crude has come under pressure since it was rejected at its 200-day moving average two weeks ago. On a weekly chart, there is plenty of room for the crude to continue heading lower.
Should the trend continue, 34.50 is the line in the sand. Spot WTI broke out of it nearly a month ago. If the breakout is real, there should be plenty of buy orders waiting to pounce on the opportunity. This price point is also about where the 50-day moving average lies.
On the fundamental front, the momentum in buildup of crude inventory continued in the week ended March 25th. Stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels to 534.8 million barrels – now up 52.3 million barrels in the past 12 weeks. Massive!
Bloomberg, by the way, reported that the all-time high was reached in 1929 when stocks hit 545 million barrels.
Crude imports fell by 636,000 barrels per day to 7.7 million b/d. There were other positives as well.
Both gasoline and distillate stocks fell – the former by 2.5 million barrels to 242.6 million barrels, and the latter by 1.1 million barrels to 161.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks have declined by 16.1 million barrels in the past six weeks.
Refinery utilization rose by two percentage points to 90.4 – a 10-week high.
Crude production, too, fell by 16,000 b/d to nine mb/d. Production reached a record 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th (2015) week.
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Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must! • gtsourdinis
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