Vital Therapies, Inc. (VTL)

[joezapp]

I'm basing the fair value on investor pricing during the prior trials. Obviously, the fair price is lower this time around. We're a long way from seeing the $29 tag that VTL had earlier this year. But some weren't willing to pay $3 some weeks back, even though VTL had most of that $3 in cash on the books. Can you imagine?

There are other factors required in addition to trial success in order to make the company valuable. I realize that. I read the annual report's risk factors. Not really different from any other company with one promising therapy. But the subset chosen now has promise based on the prior data, the FDA supports the trial, and insiders are buying. The odds are good. We'll concern ourselves with company business after the trial succeeds. Maybe we'll sell on the pop. After all, that's usually a good idea with these type companies.

"you do realize the final data is not anticipated until mid 2018 right?" Yes, which means that you have a long wait to remain short if you want to make a profit. VTL will not go down, other than for backing and filling, for a long time.