Thursday, September 24, 2015 4:30:07 PM
A poster whose handle is Dr. Wu, put this up at SHU then took it down.
"IOC - Hession in NYC
Friend of mine met with Hession in NYC. Here's a few comments he sent me.
Triceratops gas water was 288 meters deeper, flow rate of 17 sqf/d could have been 24
Had tight rock but right equip/techniques resulted in good flow from less porous rock, which is has impt pos implications for reefs at EA, Ant South, Raptor, and other structures near by
World waking up to PNG. Many think Santo's 13% stake in PNGLNG is worth its market cap. Believes IOC's 30% of Papua LNG when complete will be worth $10 bil+
Papua LNG has a 22% IRR - unheard of in LNG projects. It’s all about the costs.. Total very excited. Top 3 project for them
Watching expenses carefully going into recert. Cash flow fine; $240 mil cash plus $300 mil LOC less cvt paydown. Have access to debt financing if need it but won't. No drilling obligations in 2016. Carried on Ant South. Drilling cap ex could literally be zero, esp if Raptor gets carried.
On recert, his team will work with reservoir engineers for a supreme understanding of EA reefs, porosity etc.
Recent seismic has identified 3-4 excellent prospects as good as Ant South (Mule Deer?). Could some tie into EA? Unclear yet
Raptor seismic suggests growing in size. Confident now have right equip, people, techniques to apply. May not drill this year, evaluating lots of interest in Raptor for carry deal
Will not delay recert payment to drill Ant 7. Talking with Total about ways to drill it, and get paid without delaying any aspects of the project
IMPT: UBS Aug report suggesting avg 9.5 Tcf GIP was a P90 #, which was unclear in the report. Impt because IOC gets paid on P50 which of course is a higher GIP #. Plus UBS # was initial Ant 5 and before Ant 4 and other information. Believes Arun's 94% recovery is a real analogue. So P50 will be higher than 10 Tcf with possibly 90% recovery (sounding more to me like GLJ is closer to being right, in the 9 Tcf ballpark, implying a $1.5-1.7 bil payment at recert)
OSH/Pac LNG recert is the first EA mark and set for March-April. Had divergent interests before, but now both want high #s. OSH now needs to highlight EA value for Woodside discussions."
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