Death Spiral and Ghost Busters

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Death Spiral

DEFINITION OF 'DEATH SPIRAL'
A type of loan investors give to a company in exchange for convertible debt, which, like convertible bonds, typically has provisions that allow investors to convert the bonds into stock at below-market prices. This can cause the original shareholders to lose control of the company.

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'DEATH SPIRAL'
This type of loan is undertaken by companies that desperately need cash. It is called a death spiral because companies' stocks often plunge drastically after they take on these types of loans. It is important to note that death spirals often allow buyers to convert the bonds into shares at a fixed conversion ratio in which the buyer has a large premium.

For example, a bond with a face value of $1,000 may have a convertible value of $1,500, which means that a bondholder will receive $1,500 dollars worth of equity for giving up the $1,000 bond.

However, upon a conversion, more shares are created, which dilutes the share price. This drop in price may cause more bond holders to convert, because the lower share price means that they will be receiving more shares. Any further conversions will cause more price drops as the supply of shares increases, causing the process to repeat itself as the stock's price spirals downward.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathspiral.asp

Death spiral financing

Death spiral financing is a process where convertible financing used to fund primarily small cap companies can be used against it in the marketplace to cause the company’s stock to fall dramatically and can lead to the company’s ultimate downfall.

Many small companies rely on selling convertible debt to large private investors (see Private investment in public equity) to fund their operations and growth. This convertible debt, often convertible preferred stock or convertible debentures, can be converted to the common stock of the issuing company often at steep discounts to the market value of the common stock. Under the typical “death spiral” scenario the holder of the convertible debt initially shorts the issuer’s common stock which often causes the stock price to decline at which time the debt holder converts some of the convertible debt to common shares with which he then covers his short position. The debt holder continues to sell short and cover with converted stock which along with selling by other shareholders alarmed by the falling price continually weakens the share price making the shares unattractive to new investors and can severely limit the company’s ability to obtain new financing if the need arises.

An important characteristic of this kind of convertible debt is that it often carries conditions like a quarterly or semi-annual reset of the conversion price to keep the conversion price more or less close to the actual stock price. But a lower conversion price also increases the number of shares that a bond holder gets in exchange for one bond, increasing the dilution of existing shareholders. A lower price reset can also force investors that have set up a long CB/short stock position to sell more stock ("adjust the delta"), creating a vicious circle, hence the nickname death spiral.

The companies that are willing to agree to financing on these terms are often desperate and could not obtain funding through any other means. The terms, though viewed by some as onerous, give the lender a potential way to recover their debt regardless of what happens to the shares of the company. The lender would have a potentially greater gain if the shares were to increase in value but if they do decrease in value, there is some protection. If this were not the case they would probably not be willing to lend the money given the poor risk profiles of the companies interested in this type of financing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_financing

What is the death spiral?

In cost accounting and managerial accounting, the term death spiral refers to the repeated elimination of products resulting from spreading costs on the basis of volume instead of their root causes. The death spiral is also known as the downward demand spiral.

To illustrate the death spiral let's assume that Product X is a simple, high-volume product that requires little manufacturing attention. If the accountant spreads the company's manufacturing overhead costs based on volume, Product X will appear to have high overhead costs. (In reality, Product X causes very little overhead cost especially when compared to the company's many complex, low-volume products.) If management responds to Product X's allocated high overhead costs and 1) seeks a price increase which causes the customer to move the production to a competitor with a lower price, 2) outsources the production, or 3) drops the product, then the company's manufacturing volume will decrease.

If the company does not reduce its fixed overhead to correspond to the decreased manufacturing volume and the accountant continues to spread the overhead costs—including the cost of excess capacity—on the basis of volume, the remaining products will have to be assigned more of the overhead costs. If management again reacts to the new, higher, allocated costs by seeking price increases which cause a loss of sales, outsources production, or drops the products, the company's manufacturing volume will again decrease. If fixed costs are not decreased accordingly and the accountant again spreads the overhead on the basis of a new, even smaller volume, the entire company could die from the high fixed costs and a small volume of products being produced and sold.

To avoid the death spiral, some companies attempt to allocate overhead costs based on activities and product complexities rather than simply spreading them on volume. Also, some companies do not allocate the costs of excess capacity to products in order to minimize the death spiral.

http://www.accountingcoach.com/blog/what-is-the-death-spiral