Tuesday, January 06, 2015 10:00:07 AM
Yes, I sold ICPT due to skepticism here, and also because its continued price variance from GENFIT (even as the latter rose steadily) showed me that the ICPT price was probably still overblown.
Yes, ECYT in two lots. I had first become skeptical when you reported a surfeit of cancer treatments moving towards approval. I sold half when CHMP rejected them in February, and the rest two months later (for proceeds to buy an oil wildcatter which, luckily, I held only for a couple of weeks). I was quite lucky on ECYT, dumping it completely before MRK abrogated their partnership, for an overall profit of 118%. This was especially lucky because my original purchase decision had been upon the initial announcement of the MRK partnership.
Other sale reasons:
* GILD prior to ABBV-ENTA approval on the theory that many GILD lovers were still in denial about it.
* APRI because the concept (and the division of US vs. int'l sales) seemed more flawed the more I dug into it. (I had bought it on someone else's recommendation.)
* ENTA to take some profit and diversify a bit.
I'm a big believer in Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan theory that the avoidance of drastic loss is pretty much always a good thing.
(Of course this didn't save me from a huge loss (mostly paper, since I had a low basis) on the GTAT bankruptcy last year.)
Yes, ECYT in two lots. I had first become skeptical when you reported a surfeit of cancer treatments moving towards approval. I sold half when CHMP rejected them in February, and the rest two months later (for proceeds to buy an oil wildcatter which, luckily, I held only for a couple of weeks). I was quite lucky on ECYT, dumping it completely before MRK abrogated their partnership, for an overall profit of 118%. This was especially lucky because my original purchase decision had been upon the initial announcement of the MRK partnership.
Other sale reasons:
* GILD prior to ABBV-ENTA approval on the theory that many GILD lovers were still in denial about it.
* APRI because the concept (and the division of US vs. int'l sales) seemed more flawed the more I dug into it. (I had bought it on someone else's recommendation.)
* ENTA to take some profit and diversify a bit.
I'm a big believer in Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan theory that the avoidance of drastic loss is pretty much always a good thing.
(Of course this didn't save me from a huge loss (mostly paper, since I had a low basis) on the GTAT bankruptcy last year.)
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