Gold may very well have put in a triple bottom today. Maybe the third time is the charm? We have been going down for 3 years so most of us are not feeling optimistic and everyone is frustrated. This is exactly the type of mindset that will mark a possible market bottom. When gold goes up for 3 years in a row we will feel good again and those days will come, and on those days we should sell.
Over the years I have called several bottoms almost exactly - and caught none of the tops because I was too greedy and emotional. In some cases I even recognized that they were tops but convinced myself that it didn't matter, that I was smarter, that my stocks were immune etc. I am harder on myself than anybody and I always try and learn from my mistakes. After seeing many 1000%+ gains wiped out after 2011 I made a new rule for myself: "When convinced of my own genius, sell at least half, recoup my initial investment remind myself that I am just a man, as fallible as any, and that arrogance does not defeat discipline." If I could have sent that on a postcard to myself in 2011 I would have a lot more capital kicking around to buy all the bargains that exist today.
It would be nice to see a sustained rally and really bounce hard off the $1180 level but who really knows? I sold a few silver rounds recently and was able to capture $23/oz (cad), $5+ over spot. There is definitely a huge difference between real metal and paper prices and I am still optimistic that physical constraints will ultimately force metals higher in the long term, to the benefit of many mining companies of various stages of development.
