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Dubi - I agree that cockroaches are usually

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Aiming4   Sunday, 04/09/06 12:46:50 PM
Re: midastouch017 post# 749
Post # of 40049 
Dubi - I agree that cockroaches are usually found in bunches.

But I don't think it's clear yet whether this was a cockroach for Cortex, or whether it is merely a cautious action by the FDA.

For this to be a cockroach, i.e. a problem that becomes a predictor of more and more problems for Cortex, either:

1) It will turn out to be a serious/difficult problem for the compound or the platform.

2) There will be suspicions that Cortex either knew, or should have known, that the 3 month tox data was likely to cause problems.

Your comment about cockroaches really sums up my concerns and uncertainty about Cortex right now - is the problem a serious one and does it raise any concerns about Cortex mgmt?

My gut feelings right now:

1. The FDA is under a lot of pressure to be (or at least appear) more proactive, and the Cortex action is a logical result of that pressure.

2. As of yet, I have no reason to suspect untoward actions or intent by Cortex mgmt.

3. Based on #1 above, Cortex should be able to placate the FDA by running additional trials which will set back their timeline. However, as long as the problem is not serious and clearly solvable, a BP deal will still happen at some point before the FDA clinical hold is lifted, and COR's price will appreciate quite nicely.

Those are my gut feelings, but it's never wise to invest too much on gut feelings - logic has to be a greater component.

Logic tells me to keep some money in COR in case my gut feelings are correct, but to sell the majority of my COR (as I already have) to hedge against the possibility that the FDA problem is a serious one, and that it may presage the arrival of more cockroaches.

It's tough going against gut feelings, but I think it's the right decision in this case... Aiming4.


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