Ordinarily I'd be inclined to agree with you but not this time. If we take a look at why oil is dropping, we can come up with a number of explanations. But I'm noticing a couple of other things.
The crack spread defines the range of opportunity available to processors. Refiners, in particular, are caught in the crossfire when the crack spread drops precipitously as has been the case for more than a year running. On top of this we've been hearing of government led moves to relax certain rules that would surely affect a refiner's bottom line. However, I've yet to see anything definitive along this line. That said, I'm not seeing renewed interest in the refining end. And without that particular catalyst, I think the trend will not suddenly become our friend.
What this means to me is that certain things must turn around if we're to find domestic oil exploration, lifting, gathering, processing and marketing behaving as though meaningfully incentivized. I'm not seeing a case for trying to explain Caza's share price drop when we know that oil is dropping. And we also know that this situation is hardly the exception in the o & g arena.
In short, CAZFF represents an extraordinary opportunity for us at this moment in time because it is so very capable of unusually great operational results. On top of that, it's suffering along with others caught in the downdraft produced by ongoing tax-related issues affecting the refining side. There will be repercussions whenever the refiners are challenged. In no way does this reflect on Caza other than to acknowledge that the road to riches is often fraught with debris amassing from unrelated wars. The wise investor looks past this, grabs a beer and a hotdog and burps while waiting for the air to clear.
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