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Interesting past couple of days with HAL and with oil/drillers. Its like the first day I think OIL went down after that inventory report. Granted, their options expire tomorrow, so weird shit happens.
CVX was making all time highs and it seemed like XOM wanted to fill that gap it made after earnings. Strong sell off this afternoon.
S2, has the 5th way hit? Or should we expect higher prices?
-alero
Thats a great analysis S2. I can't believe OIL has made 5 straight record highs for the past 5 days. I also see the decline in volume.
It was interesting today with OIL going up but some of the drillers like XOM and CVX were looking sluggish? It was pretty weird to say the least.
What are some of the clues when the 5th wave finally ends? Are we looking for solid volume on a declime?
Sounds good...can't wait to see how it plays out.
-alero
Short 47.50's? Almost fetching a dollar....
-alero
Whats the deal with our buddy HAL? It seems like it might want to retest that 48ish high? If so, we have a nice double top along with the inverse head & shoulders? When do you think might be a good entry to sell some more calls?
-alero
I'll let S2 answer, but what I think he might say is that you would close for a profit or close it in the next few days, since even if it was between 45-47, we sold it for 2.85, so the most it would be worth right now is around 2.20.
Looking good, recovered the difference, now looking at pure profit and we still have like 6 more months.
-alero
Trade is looking so far.
-alero
S2, you were definitely right in saying HAL would be trading on its own. XOM and CVX are both up strong on big volume and HAL is down nicely like you predicted. Your hourly chart nailed the intra-day bottom on that 50 MA.
XOM and CVX have a lot of open interest in their out of the money calls....
If they end up reporting good numbers, they will take the entire sector higher with them. Heck, their earnings might be a catalyst to make new highs.
SLB reported over a week ago and they took it up.
-alero
Man is it hugging the downtrend line! S2, do you think the rate decision will have any effect on our trade? The way I see it is people are already pricing in a 25% cut, thats why the dollar rallied this past week and we saw a little pull back in the commodities. If Ben does in fact do a 25% cut, as people think, he'll also say that they might hold off in the future and this will inevitably take commodities down as well. If he doesn't do anything this time, it will really take them down. I see it as a win-win situation for us, as HAL more or less is aligned with oil, so if oil goes down, they might take all of the oil service stocks down with it.
Take a look at XOM, CVX. Both made a triple top. They are reporting earnings either next week or the week after, so you never know.
Do you play any ETF's? If so, which ones and how?
-alero
WOW, talk about a spinning top lol.
From stockcharts
Spinning Top: Spinning Tops Candlestick lines that have small bodies with upper and lower shadows that exceed the length of the body. Spinning tops signal indecision.
-alero
either or suggests a move up....right?
Its definitely an active trade management style, which is what I like. I'm mostly observing, paper trading various options/stock strategies so when I start making money and saving it I can be prepared. I've learned already there is no quick buck, but a slow couple percent a month with good discipline is possible.
I don't want to give most of my money to mutual funds because I know what they are like. I'd rather manage it myself. I worked as an intern for T. Rowe last summer and fall and while the managers barely beat the indices they are taking home a very nice bonus every year.
I'm graduating in a couple weeks. I'll be in DC working for Business Objects, which was just bought by SAP. Its a business intelligence firm. They are going to try to put me on a DoD work track, so even if IT spending goes down the next 1-2 years, the government will (hopefully) always spend on defense work.
I'll be in San Jose for 6 weeks for training before I move down to DC starting July. I'm hoping I have a good time and find stuff to do.
-alero
Sweet, thanks for the explanation. I think the bear call spread is a nice trade right now, but looking at today, still full throttle ahead. I think the trade will eventually work out, inverse H&S aren't always 100% precise. I think the target area is 48-50 before it falls back down. I don't see 52.50 calls trading yet, but 47.50/50 is also a nice trade.
As you said that its sometimes makes sense to allow the trade to get called out. I thought initially why not let it all the time since we only have a buck and change to make up, but then I realized that you would re-buy the stock higher that what you originally did therefore you would have a loss with your put you still have. There really is no free money in the market huh?
Do you usually buy puts as you did to protect yourself with a lot of your trades? It seems like $1 and change for 8 months of protection is pretty to good to know when you go to sleep, right? I means suppose someone is buying equities for their IRA or whatever.
How do you know when to close your sold call if the underlying goes against you. HAL obviously looks like a good move down like you show, but suppose it goes up 5$ from here into the may OPEX. You would have to close your call for a loss, correct?
-alero
BRCM is up 40% the last month...earnings tomorrow....
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
-alero
S2,
Suppose you wanted to buy DITM calls rather than buying it outright in case you don't have all that money to put up. With your example of HAL, if I bought some Jan 09 or Jan 10 30 calls would I buy a 30 put, or still buy a 50 put? Then obviously short calls every month. If you can explain, why or why not with each one.
Thanks,
-alero
CKG, I will hopefully be back on Friday.
Definitely up for a beer. Let me know.
e-mail me: gxm919@psu.edu
TI Cuts outlook :(
Geez, and I thought I was an immature 22 year old. Guess not.
-Alero
Your stop loss was hit if you count A/H.
Every answers starts off "In the latter half of the year...blah blah...."
It did start at 4:45....listening right now.
11.30 now
Guidance is poop
Of course it would be selling off...of course....
Guidance is blehhhhhh just under 800
Yup, this guys good...
You can't just say MRVL is affected by the decrease of the dollar, every company that deals globally is. So, everyone is on the same playing field.
-Alero
A 50% pop? Dunno, lets just get through a conference call without the shares being dumped. Seems like a couple mill going on, so not that bad.
Lets see what they have to say on the conference call. But going from loosing money every quarter for the past year or year and half to finally making money means they are turning the corner. NOW is the time to invest in this company for long term I believe. But lets see what they have to say.
And maybe find a CFO?!?!?!?!?
Nice!
They are bidding this up for some reason A/H
They didn't say they are coming out with a BB. They said they are allowing the SDK to be available to developers to make various corporate applications. They also said that they might make outlook compatible with the iPhone. The iPhone will stay the same, its just they are trying to appeal more to the corporate world by introducing corporate applications. Its a dumb idea. The iPhone is a consumer product, the BB is a corporate product. Different niches. You can't have a product do both.
-Alero
The answer depends on your salary. e.g you can spend more on rent making 150k than you can making 50k.
-Alero
Nope, visited on numerous occasions, but can't say I'm familiar with it since I haven't lived there. Why prozac? I tend to be a happy person, lol.
Give me a city that doesn't have its problems.
-alero
Among my friends I'm the guy who hates to spend money and just wants to save it. So no debt for me, and I hope I never have any.
I won't be in NYC, so no 3500 studio rent. DC is a bit less, I'm sure I can find something decent for about a grand.
-alero