Mean historical return and volatility for a 25 blue chips for long-term and short-term time intervals.
As all of you know, the historical expected return and volatility of stock is a very important characteristics of the stock stability and profitability. Here is the comparison of these values for 25 blue chips for two historical data intervals, 11 years and 1 month. 11 years interval shows long-term
stock price tendencies, and 1 month interval exhibits stock price tendency in the near past.
This is a table for 25 blue chips and their expected return and volatility for 11 years of the historical data from 2013-01-02 to 2024-07-19 ordered by the expected return.
symbol
expected return
volatility
date from
date to
MSFT
0.271
0.266
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
AAPL
0.235
0.282
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
UNH
0.225
0.25
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
MA
0.206
0.262
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
NOC
0.175
0.234
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
HD
0.163
0.234
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
LMT
0.152
0.215
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
ABBV
0.148
0.264
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
JPM
0.144
0.261
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
AXP
0.131
0.292
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
KR
0.131
0.273
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
ORCL
0.128
0.263
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
CAT
0.121
0.282
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
GS
0.12
0.273
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
HON
0.114
0.219
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
MRK
0.106
0.21
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
WMT
0.102
0.2
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
SBUX
0.096
0.259
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
MCD
0.095
0.194
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
NKE
0.094
0.285
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
PG
0.08
0.179
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
JNJ
0.07
0.175
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
KO
0.049
0.176
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
INTC
0.038
0.32
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
CVX
0.032
0.281
2013-01-02
2024-07-19
As you can see, the leader of the table is the Microsoft stocks with their 0.271 yearly expected return and 0.266 volatility.
The next table is the same one, but for the last month of the data, from 2024-06-20 to 2024-07-19 ordered by the expected return.
symbol
expected return
volatility
date from
date to
UNH
5.984
0.357
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
KR
1.767
0.181
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
INTC
1.549
0.379
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
AAPL
1.339
0.248
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
GS
1.051
0.256
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
CAT
0.992
0.24
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
JPM
0.985
0.225
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
AXP
0.914
0.179
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
KO
0.85
0.125
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
JNJ
0.779
0.172
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
WMT
0.645
0.167
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
HD
0.417
0.264
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
LMT
0.258
0.091
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
CVX
0.222
0.185
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
MCD
0.187
0.205
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
NOC
0.105
0.115
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
HON
0.028
0.134
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
PG
0.022
0.136
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
ABBV
0.014
0.243
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
SBUX
-0.069
0.348
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
MSFT
-0.217
0.182
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
MA
-0.22
0.174
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
MRK
-0.319
0.264
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
ORCL
-0.323
0.192
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
NKE
-0.968
0.737
2024-06-20
2024-07-19
As you can see, the leader of the table for one month is the UnitedHealth Group Inc.
stocks with their prominent 5.984 yearly expected return and 0.357 volatility. It means that the UnitedHealth Group Inc. stock prices for the last month raised quite steadily.
And finally, here is the performance of the portfolio consisted of these blue chips.
Optimization were performed by maximization of the Sharpe ratio, for 11 years of historical data.
expected return
0.23
volatility
0.19
Sharpe ratio
1.08
Allocation sum
10000
Leftover
46.29
All the calculations were made with the help of the website for portfolio optimization
https://asset-master.net/
The recommended browser is Firefox.
Welcome to discuss!