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As has been said, old news from last year, I'm pretty sure you've seen from previous filings that Delray was sold right? Could we stop talking about it, it obviously had no impact on what will happen normally on Monday
Uh my IBKR shows me mcap being at 3.19m currently, is it just bad at accounting for dilution or what? What's our latest marketcap estimate again?
Ah nevermind that was old news oh well, lets get some results going anyway
No, but it isn't a bad thing, how could it be bad for the company? Does anyone know what they aren't? How could those assets be liability for the company? It's not like it's gonna be a crate of drugs or something similar.
You're trying to prove that an unknown is a negative for the company, I'm not really convinced by your argument
Now you're saying that assets are a bad thing to be included in an earnings report? Are you serious?
Kinda strange to not see this pump get beaten down, maybe nobody is willing to sell right before earnings anymore?
oh yes the massive dilution that has been continuously slowing down the entirety of this quarter? Nice way to tell everyone you know nothing about the reality of this stock buddy.
And once again, are you bears going to pick a side? Is this reverse spliting or going to the low trips?
As you may have noticed when I calculated probable and realistic mcap given our current OS and the revenue that would be streaming through, I keep expectations realistic at 0.0055-0.0075, with some dilution at the very worst dropping it in the ballpark of a 0.0030-0.0040 range in fair value.
This basically means that unless all of this talk about revenue was air blown through Shawn's ass, there is very little probability that anyone averaged under 0.0030 ends up taking a loss by the end of next quarter, and if we're going to assume the CEO is openly lying, why the hell would we still be here?
I also think that if we end up having a good ER, speculation about the next being better would keep a tailwind going through most of the quarter.
We might not get a parabolic pump like last winter but greener pastures ahead.
Hoping some of my orders at 11 trigger again today, if they don't I guess I'll "paint" the close.
And the perennial argument about dilution, which has indeed slowed as multiple people here have brought you actual calculations of, but keep copy pasting PRs and filings, very high effort bashing here sir.
Also bloody pick a side, is he going to let it go into the trips or is he gonna reverse split for his lenders, because you seem to be pushing both arguments lately
Why are you talking about Q4 results right now when we don't even know Q3?
Every single trader on this board is agreeing that if Q3 is disgusting we're out, if it isn't disgusting then we're still in, why would someone sell at breakeven on the first quarter this company has actual revenue to speak of? Why would Q4 be bad if Q3 shows improvement in the financials?
I don't even want to argue about it anymore, you're obviously dead set on having the worst possible outlook on this stock.
If the situation is this bad then when the hell would it be a good time for you to think about buying in? 0.0001?
Point is, I'm bloody tired of arguing with a know nothing that will obviously not be argued with, case closed
Why are you talking about Q4 results right now when we don't even know Q3, I don't even want to argue about it anymore, you're obviously dead set on having the worst possible outlook on this stock.
If the situation is this bad then when the hell would it be a good time for you to think about buying in? 0.0002?
Point is, I'm bloody tired of arguing with a know nothing that will obviously not be argued with, case closed
I don't see why he wouldn't, I mean if he was at that level of dishonesty we'd probably have been aware of it prior to now
Well, Monday is the last date before he becomes delinquent, he delivered on time this August, I don't see why he wouldn't again.
I don't see anything within the provided information we have that certainly indicates the ER will be a flop.
Accurately predicting a stock's ER is ridiculously hard to impossible aside from trusting management's estimates, and you're going to tell me you can perfectly assess they'll be disappointing from a 2 years old PR?
For gods sake the company was functionally defunct until a year and a half ago
This is once again a collection rate from insurers, where do you get the information that only insurance pays for addiction recovery treatment?
Because I've seen that data before, and I've told you its insufficient to prove your point, the language is just too vague.
Also half this bloody board tells you it's pointless to refer to earnings on which ARIA wasn't even on the balance sheet to prove your point, when are you going to get that through your thick skull?
A very quick search tells me most healthcare businesses have between 75% and 90% collection rate (with the very very efficient at 95%) on their gross billing statements. If we assume GRST/ARIA is one of the worst performing healthcare practices, this would still leave us 75% of the gross billing of 1.2~1.6m over the last two quarters or 2.8~3.2m annually.
That would amount to 0.9~1.2m over the last two quarters or 1.8~2.4m annually.
If we refer to my previous mcap calculation, this would certainly completely destroy my argument, with us trading at the absolutely decadently high (heavy sarcasm here) of between 1.5X to 2X annual revenue at 0.0011.
This mean we would only reach 10X revenue when the pps will be 0.0055~0.0073.
I really don't see why I, with my average now at 0.0015, should decide waiting for earnings is not worth at least a 3.6 bagger assuming one of the worst case scenarios, and nearly a 5 bagger if earnings are really good, with more if OTC chasers pull their magic.
(Of course my plan is to start gradually pulling out somewhere a bit under the penny, or anytime I see a serious reversal past 0.0040)
Notice how in every single one of my calculations I account for the worst possible case, explain to me how this will financially ruin me oh wise one.
:)
"We know the collection rate is very low"
Any kind of actual proof for that kind of bold statement?
Does really seem to me you're swimming in unknown waters every time you make statements about stuff outside the filings.
Nothing of that statement about insurance companies and marketing says anything about collection rates being low in the area ARIA operates in.
Also a story from 2019? Aren't you the man that always tells us the revenue and Aria story is too old to sell anymore?
Why are you dangling nearly 2 years old reports on us?
Unless the earnings blow or we get another dump down tomorrow, I don't see trips coming into play this year lmao.
I probably could have, I had more orders waiting to trigger at 11 but those apparently didn't get filled before close, whoever was dumping today obviously wasn't very big if I can't get fills for 500k orders.
(IBKR limits me at 500k shares per order whatever the share price, annoying for low price pennies)
We were told last earnings did not include ARIA revenue as the acquisition only closed after the period the earnings described.
We were told to expect anything from 1.2 to 1.8 million in revenue (and before some say this is expected by now and has been priced in, you don't price in revenue growth by dropping the share price by 2 thirds).
We were also told we would see vast balance sheet improvements, what this exactly means is a bit more up in the air.
If we are given 1.2 million in revenue, this would means the company is more or less trading at 1.5 times yearly revenue (2.4m yearly, 3.6m mcap at 0.0011), which, even with the debt concerns Bubae talks about, is a completely ridiculous valuation for the stock.
If I extrapolate a bit and go more towards 1.6~1.8 million every 2 quarters or around 3.2, 3.4m yearly, we are currently trading at 1.05 or 1.12 times yearly revenue.
The liabilities are an issue yes, but if Shawn does deliver on his promise, we could very much see ourselves trading at the bare minimum at 4-5 times that projected yearly revenue which could be anywhere from 0.0040 pps to 0.0050 pps, and that would be ignoring that the OTC is fundamentally hype based and sufficient hype could pump this to a less reasonable but maybe achievable penny, provided lenders don't absolutely murder the pump again.
If that will all happen in a glorious couple of weeks or over an entire quarter I can't say as I don't see the future, but I don't see any reason for us to ever touch trips unless someone attempts a hail mary to get themselves some 0.0010 or 0.0009s tomorrow before the earnings on Monday (Shawn honored the 5 day delay this August even if those earnings were disappointing to say the least)
Sorry for the long post, you probably wanted something shorter to read and I turned this in a quasi DD post.
Good thing I don't care about your opinion :)
Damn and I wanted to buy a bit more at 11
If we keep within the extended deadline, the coming Monday
And Bubae completely refuses to acknowledge your point, by the time lenders can actually acquire shares of ATHI from GRST (mid 2025), I could be married and have kids, I like the one criticizing people who see this as an investment rather than something to quickly flip referencing events that only fit in a very long term investment horizon.
I mean by 2025 GRST will have either folded or be a very different business, why even mention the ATHI options as they're a non event within 5 years?
As I said, literally pointless to argue with you, at least you'll be almost certainly proven wrong by earnings, time to turn on my filter again.
Wow such a shocker that lenders have default protection options that would allow them to seize the primary money maker of the stock, what else would they take?
Couldn't agree more, we could probably try to get some collective effort to demand this from him, do we have any idea how much of the float we control as retail?
I'm not talking about harassing him endlessly, but he definitely at least budged (didn't follow through sadly) when we asked him for more news and a FAQ, and I feel we haven't done that in months, only Think used to do it.
Maybe we're just going at it wrong and he's not a very Twitter person.
While the Sparta deal is certainly the holy grail of speculative power that could launch us "to ze moon" I'm feeling pretty certain nothing has and will come out of it, but so long.
That property however is something people seem to like ignoring when its current valuation is probably conservatively 4 times the stock's current marketcap.
Also contrary to what Bubae tells us about potential ownership issues from lenders seizing their ARIA IOUs, that facility is from the language of the now 5 year old PRs under complete control of GRST.
I'd enjoy others digging through ERs and PRs so we could get some collective DD going on something I feel we've ignored so far, asking he who does not speak about it would be a good idea too.
Oh to talk about other things than the all important earnings we await. Have we looked at the Canadian facility recently? It's valued 10 million (as of February 2017, could have appreciated quite nicely in value over the last 4 years).
Said lease will expire this February, so either a proper sale to the current renter or a renegotiation of the lease is in the cards, both could be catalysts for growth even past the good earnings we're expecting.
I mean if we assume a conservative appreciation of 50% in property value over the last 4-5 years this could mean 15 million in value.
Before you say I'm insane, have you seen house prices recently?
That wouldn't be an insane appreciation over half a decade for a 40 acres facility that from the website picture looks absolutely lovely.
From a quick look at Bala, Ontario (the town that the facility is in) it's a pretty popular vacation town, described as "compact" so while it is not right in the centre of a city, I do think it's reasonable to assume property value would be high.
But if GRST indeed manages to sell that facility, doesn't it suddenly mean it has enough cash to service most of the debt Bubae describes as toxic?
Unless Shawn is a crook that intends to lie and reverse split anyway then pump this stock again with the news of a very large property sale, I don't see how that massive influx of cash or even the announcement that GRST is in talks to sell it could triple or quadruple the share price.
This is a bit more speculative and up in the air than the earnings, but it's the OTC and what are we here for other than speculate?
Once again you show you talk big but know very little, "in network" means that the insurer and service provider have a deal (if you could find further information on what said deal is you would be welcome) in medical jargon.
This means that while insurance pays 25-30% (that part is negotiated and yes, lower than out of network in price) of the bill, the rest is left to the client to pay themselves.
Now in network is not all bad, ARIA being in a network means that insurers will funnel clients towards ARIA due to their discount deal.
This still means that unless there is issues with the standard healthcare drama of people refusing to pay their bills (more unlikely in a detox center people willingly sign up for than an ER ward that people end up in after a car accident), ARIA should be able to collect most of that 600k.
Unless you can find me actual information on the fact that ARIA offers its rooms for pennies, this is one more absolutely baseless fear mongering tactic from you.
I find it curious how you keep slipping up, last time it was Wake making you "remember" about the Canadian lease.
So your only leg to stand on is an old "story" (see I can do that too) about outdated filings that didn't show any revenue and dilutive debt that is becoming less and less relevant by the day.
Please keep to your earning reports nitpicking, it's clearly the only thing you can understand correctly and you slip up each time you go out of that area of comfort
Curious to see what your argument is now about the dilution, because we're getting awfully close to that guaranteed 0.0010 mark where that Labry fund converts, aren't they going to stop doing any converting if they don't make a nice profit anymore?
A penny by year end? We're getting a bit ahead of ourselves, but half a penny within the next quarter is definitely reasonable
What do you mean? We ran hundreds of percent when news of this being ressurected dropped, why wouldn't we run up hard on news of it actually making money?
Once again
Wrong.
Board.
Almost feels like gloating, I hope Insider is serious about there being a nice surprise tomorrow
Annoying, but this stock has been known to double on the slightest actual news so oh well, guess I'll DCA a bit more
How likely is it that the winter miracle takes place again? I'm in GRST because I see actual value to exploit, but I wouldn't say no to an easy 4-5 bagger within a month
I mean weren't some of those notes already due at the start of the month? When are your prophecies of imminent collapse coming true mr Nostradamus?
I mean arguably no nasdaq compliant company goes from a near complete lack of revenue to a pretty sizable quarterly revenue, so the comparison falls a little flat