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Mr. Murphy,
At what point did Marjac say he was going to win the lawsuit for sure? I guess you have never been in court. You go to court and hope for a fair hearing and sometimes it does not work in your favor. If justice is served every time in court, we would be living in a perfect world. I hope you get my point.
Hey Lizzy,
Can you please tell me who are the two new directors so that I can vote accordingly.
You got way too many questions and the answers are "It all depends". Hiring an investment banking firm is to figure out if there is any buyers interested. It does not mean they have to sell it. Private and Public traded companies do this in order to see what is out there...
Biotech stocks are high risk and high reward. Biotech stocks have been in the decline for the past several months and they have been declined by more than 50% or so. Let’s just constrain our topic to Amarin. To answer your question, the current environment is not so good to invest in biotech sector. However, your question is irrelevant because majority of the stock holders who post here are in Amarin for a long time. If I could re do it, I could had sold it when it was high OR I could had sold it when it was coming down from $23. Anyway, I want to see this company sold regardless of how bad/good the current environment for bio sector. I don’t want to see this current management burn through all the reserve cash to build the infrastructure in Europe with just single drug in hand. It all goes down to economics 101. Apparently, this company is not run by logic and reasoning.
All I want to see that the management announces that they are working with an investment banking firm and that news will start to drive the price up to $5-6 range and get a buyout of $10-12 and call it a day. Of course, it all sounds so easy and I know it Is not going to happen. Hopefully, Denner has plan to rescue all of us.
Totally agree with you. We had the chance to sell it when the price was at its peak but we all thought it was going to skyrocket. At the end of the day, greed got us.
Lets put the insult aside. You are saying that you will take 1/2 of PFE stock for 1 Amarin stock. So you are expecting about $27 change. If you don't mind, please share why you think we are worth that much now or in the next 12 months. My understanding is that stocks like Amarin trades on anticipation. Wall street is not giving much respect to Amarin because of the downfall here in the U.S. Is the roll out in Europe is going to be failure or not? Wall street is not giving much hope for this management to do well in Europe and stock is trading like it. Unless something great happens, the sp won't change. I hope that change will come from Denner.
Well, you are more realistic. It sure is an uphill to get to $5 with the wat it has been trading lately, let alone $10. I sure am getting quite a lot of insult from folks who are waiting for 10X from the current price. Good luck to everyone.
Some time in 2018, I believe. It was about 6-9 months before Amarin management did the offering at $18. If I remember correctly, the sp was $22 and public offering bought it down to $18 below. The Adcom bought it back up to the $20's and Judge DU decision came out and it was a downhill from there. I realize some of you guys have more seniority here than me. When it starts to affect your mental health, it is time to walk away from your investment. In my case, it is not worth selling at this price and are forced to wait out.
You really cracked me when you said you will take 1/2 share of PFE. 1 PFE share is worth about $55. So you want $27.50 and we are trading barely in the $3. Dude, majority of us here would take $10 in heartbeat and bail from Amarin. You really made me think of Jason (Biobillioair) who is waiting for a $100+ share buyout.
But who is this silent majority rubberstamping the destruction? The management hardly owns any shares. Majority of the stocks are in the hands of retail shareholders and I don't think anyone is happy with Amarin for the past several years.
Hey Kiwi,
The Amarin management is talking about 3+ years for the combo pill. They talked about this combo pill about 10+ years ago. Please see the link below, it is dated 2013. So it seems like they are still about Combo Pill aftre 9 years. What have they been doing between 2013 till now?
https://investor.amarincorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amarin-announces-positive-results-phase-1-clinical-trial
I read your comments quite a few times over and over. It really tells you the utter failure of Amarin management. They should had negotiated much better with generics. I mean even a middle school kid could had done better. It just angers me so much thinking about this. But it is what it. I am just waiting for a point where the management accept and acknowledge their mistake and put their hands up and say it is time and we need to sell this company. Hopefully, it is not too far away. As of today, I don't think management has not been willing to acknowledge their mess ups.
82000
I like the way you think. Hopefully, you are right. It is so tiring to wait and jump the ship once this pass above $10. Unfortunately, even $5 seems so far away too. I truly wish if there was someone that can do something to change our situation. Feeling desperate and hopeless.
I see that you have such a good faith in this management. So if the baby and denner scenario plays out the way you imagine, I think it would take 2+ years.
What can we do as shareholders to increase the stock price? We have been approved in Europe for about a year and started selling in Germany since Aug 2021 hardly generated any sales.
What can we do get a facetime with the management to share our concerns? Marjac would be an ideal candidate to represent us. How can we make this happen?
Reading your comments made me just laugh. The judicial saga we went through did not side with truth and justice. The data is out there, it is all about how to utilize it in our favor.
Here is something to think about. If you started to search for a particular drug on your computer, you will start to see the ad popping up (Unless you are blocking the Ad's) related to your search because of the rootkit that tracks our search. The reality is that there is no privacy. HIPAA, Really?
Hello Folks,
I have a question which I have been pondering in my mind for a long time. I am an analyst who works with data all the time. When I say data, there are all kinds of data out there in this day and age. There must be digital data available for the folks who are associated with any type of CVD issues. Couldn’t Amarin management bombard these targeted audience with postal mails, emails, and internet ads? I am sure it would be a fraction of the cost compared to having actual sales folks on the ground.
Amarin never has/had a plan B. They always had a plan A and that was it. No wonder why they still haven't waken up from the judge DU disaster. They sure need an aggressive go getter type of leader. JT was passive and I get the feeling KM is not any different. They should had gone ahead with the combo pill two years ago would be much closer to the finish line. Literally everything is delayed with this company. They sit on it for too long. They should had applied for EU and ROW much earlier.
Majority of the time, generics comes into the market once the brand has the chance to develop the market. In amarin's case, both the brand and generic are losers. With so far what we have seen, nobody is benefitting from this current situation. Had Amarin developed the market first, and DR Reddy and Hikama comes into the market in 2028 and they could probably sell 200K scripts a week. Anyway, we the shareholders needs to think about what we can do increase the stock price? We had so much but didnt go anywhere..
You are spot on Marjac. The leadership was/is poor with Amarin. They settled with two generics and didn't settle with Dr Reddy and Hikama. What was their strategy.. Its either you settle with everyone and or dont. It was poor on Amarins part for not working with generics to create a better understanding about market development.
But didnt these drop absorbed by Dr Reddys and Apotx? As of today we are still sitting at 28% market share for generic vascepa.
83400
Sleven,
you and I agree don't agree on quite a lot of things. You mentioned that generic growth in U.S is constrained by supply shortages. To an extent, I do agree but as each day goes by it is going to change. As of today, generics carved about 28% of the market. How long has it been since the generics been out? A little over a year maybe? At this rate, I think by 2023 they would be at least in the 45%.
Dear Sir,
I want you to take a look at the stock price and see where it is. I firmly believe there is a reason why it is trading the way it is. As of today, we are trading in the low 3’s. The current management has lost the trust with what happened in the U.S and what is happening in Europe. Look, I used to think like you. I was under the assumption that Vascepa was the best thing ever invented sine the statins. And I put all my hard-earned money in this stock, and I lost nearly a 100K because of that. 2+ years after the approval, this drug is hardly known to the world. We hardly get about 80K scripts a week. So, comparing this to statin is unfair. So, your argument about statin made 12B in China is irreverent. I highly doubt this management is capable to execute in Europe and ROW. I think Denner see something we don’t.
Europe – 10 Years of exclusivity averaging about 1B a year with total of $10 Billion
ROW- Brazil, Australia, Canada is a small-midsize market. Let’s say about 250 million a year total
Royalty from China- Let’s say the royalty percentage is 15% and it brings in a Billion about a year for the next 10 years. So, the royalty for Amarin is about 150 million a year.
U.S- It is tricky. Lets say there is about 2.8 Billion to be made in the next 8 years.
2022 -480 Million
2023 – 440 Million
2024 – 400 Million
2025 - 380
2026 - 360
2027 - 340
2028 - 320
2029 - 300
2030 – 280
10B (Europe)+ 2.5 B (ROW) + 1.5 B (China) + 2.8B (U.S) = Total Revenue of $16.8 Billion.
As of today the current market is 1.24 Billion – 3.13 Stock price
I hope the company at least would be sold for $5 Billion if it were to be sold.
5 Billion comes out to be about $ 12 and change.
Since you are expecting a much bigger buyout price, can you share your numbers?
Can you please break down your numbers and tell me why you would think we are worth more than $10 if a sale were to take place.
my concerns are listed below and why I think we would not be able to get more than $10 unless some miracle happens such as reddit community take this stock.
U.S sales have been declining over the past couple of years. Give or take, we would be loosing about 5-15% sales every year to generics.
As of next month, it is going to mark one year since we got the EMA approval. What sort of sales we have from EU? In 2020, we were thinking that EU alone will bring 1B. We seem to run into all sort of troubles in U.S, France and netherlands with the government coverage.
China is delayed. We are only going to get 10-15% of royalty from the sales. If china does 1 Billion, we might end up getting 100 million.
The current management is still in the process of filing dossier for rest of the world including oceana, and south america. We should had already been selling there now. The day after Judge DU decision, Amarin should had filed in ROW.
Look at the end of the day, one cannot say much positive things about this management.
I think you are reading things out of the context. You are going to it alone until you are ready to sell. Going it alone could had been a viable option if you had multiple drugs in the pipeline. Amarin was going it alone for many years through phase 1 - 3 trial and should had worked on buttoning up amarin for a sale. JT and company got way too greedy and didnt sell when it was riped for a sale. Anyway, it is all done and it is the past. GIA is probably the only option left now unless Denner has something in the store for us.
That is my assumption, I am not expert. The way I see it, Vascepa was riped for a buyout right after the ADCOM but GIA/Court cases sort of killed everything. I am just waiting it out like most of you thinking that it would get to $10.00 some day and just break even. Fortunately, I was able to average it down. Anyway, all hopes lies with Denner.
It could mean many things. Perhaps they are interested in obtaining Amarin or perhaps not. They might be working with HLS to keep their employees at work. Who knows. All I am saying is by reading this press release from the past year, they keeps on emphasizing on buying up cancer drugs. They hardly ever mentioned CVD drugs. In addition, they are looking for drugs that will feed them money down the road that are in phase 1 and 2 trials. Amarin is way passed that. I am sure Pfizer might had been interested at one point but that boat already sailed.
Lizzy,
I was trying to say that Cigna only covers Brand Vascepa. I guess i was trying to state that there are quite a few things that are favoring us such as CVS only carries Brand Vascpa and Cigna only covers brand vascepa. At the end of the day, it does not matter because our sales are flat. The whole world thinks there is something wrong with the way our little amarin is running. Apparently, the old folks who does not realize is the management themselves.
I know you had mentioned Pfizer several times but I highly doubt Pfizer is interested in CVD drugs. If you followed their press releases, they hardly ever mentioned about CVD drugs and made it seem like they are more interested in cancer drugs.
Cigna only covers brand vascepa. Please see the link.
https://www.cigna.com/static/www-cigna-com/docs/medicare/plans-services/2022/formulary-extra.pdf
It does not matter at end of the day. Our script numbers are not really going up. It sure is stagnant.
Hello Folks,
Question for those who are wiser than me. Of course, all of you guys are wiser than me. Anyway, Judge Dyk kept on attacking us about the standing and the timeline issue. My understanding was that the court read the brief submitted by Marjac and see a merit in the case. Isn’t that the reason why let us proceed to an oral hearing? If standing/timeline was an issue wouldn’t the court had denied a hearing right at the beginning? I remember Marjac was saying that it was good sign that they decided to hear our case. So my assumption was that the standing/timeline was not an issue until Dyk started to really attack Marjac.
Abe
The script numbers are declining week by week.
Judge Dyk was hung on this issue for sometime. Who are the members of epadi? Kind of seemed like Dyk wanted to spank all the members who brought this lawsuit and seemed like he was offended. This guy is a tough one..
Judge Dyke was sure being a dick. He kept on attacking Marjac like he personally benefits from this casing being dismissed. Dyke sure attacked with tooth and nails. It is unbelievable that he does not care about fixing the right from wrong.
Probably sleeping.
These judges sounds like they have made their decision premade and it is not favor for us. We sure got bad judges, they sure dont care about the actual issue. What kind of world are we living in?
Probably not tomorrow. With singer, we heard the verdict the very next day. So it could be from next day to few months.
The management should had at least waited to issue free shares/options until the verdict comes out from the court case tomorrow. If Marjac wins, management is going to benefit the most out of it. Filthy folks waiting to gain on Marjac/Shareholders effort. Anyway, winning in court is more important.