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Riksea,
So if I'm hearing you correctly, you have to know somebody and have say a million bucks to bring to the table. Do I hear hedge fund?
Either that or pay outrageous commisions.
Well, my broker won't even allow me to short OTBB stocks, much less short a 43 cent stock. If you know any that would I would appreciate the education.
Not that I would take any position in OPBL, but just because I'm interested.
IMO, if you go long on this POS, with all the garbage hanging over it's head, it's less than a roll of the dice. Some one would be relying on pure dumb luck.
Also beware there could very easily, I would say probably, more bad news to come.
Hey, if you want throw down some play money, what the heck, that's what's there for.
But to make a serious play to the long side ( as I said I don't know how you could go short a .43 OTBB stock ) I would do some real DD. Even with a daytrading penny stock, there comes a time when fundalmentals really do matter.
Nothing a six year old couldn't see comming. With all the really good stocks out there, why would anybody even drop a grand into this disease ridden POS?
Well since that short info was released April 25, it's pretty likely that about 3.499 million shares have already been covered.
Cargo_hauler,
Below is the first post I made on this thread to some one who was down and didn't know whether or not to sell. The tenor of the post speaks for itself. The advice was sound and as you can see, my distrust of OPBL's management goes back to February. At the time of the post, May, 3rd the SP was still in the $4's (4.31 as I recall).
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19352195
I am sorry for for anyone who lost money, I was laughing at Casidy though I can see why it would be misconstrued, I apologise again.
That being said, I honestly haven't seen such a dirty company so clearly telegraphed.
But as a point of contention, you were hyping the stock at losing only 30% of business, so that makes you a pumper with no conscience about people with important savings at risk, or you just don't understand the business and had done no credible DD, I'm not so sure you should be giving advice or casting stones.
Here's another hint for all still in, check out the BOD of Platinum Energy Resources INC. If you're in this stock long enough, you'll hear that name again. If you understand the biz, you'll know why it's pertinent.
If you're a trader then, as I said your not concerned with fundamentals and you're already up .12 today, congrats. Trading is the only way to make money here but only for a little while longer. Make hay when the sun shines.
I tried to state my case with logic, with accounting and with business convention. Belive it or not, my intent was not to be a classic internet basher, but if I had just said don't invest in OPBL, the management can't be trusted, I would have just been slammed and ignored.
Oh and by the way, in one your posts, you stated the OPBL's story was far from over, on that score you were 100% correct.
This is too funny. You just can't make this stuff up.
I hope this will finnally put to rest any thoughts OPBL isn't a scam, but somehow I doubt it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=OPBL:US&sid=a10FN1t....
>>Exactly - OPBL is a steal at these levels, just for the systems they have in place and the other 70% of the business they have that is not BMO.<<
I get the feeling you're just in this thing for a swing trade, so fundamentals aren't important to you. Good luck.
But if you're actually thinking there is anything to that 70% figure, I seriously suggest you do a little DD. The remaining rev stream is generally considered 20% with 30% an absolute best.
Hint 1: counterparty trades
Hint 2: NMX incentives
And that's if none of their other customeres bail - a very distinct possibility, OPBL is rapidly morphing into pariah staus.
>>11.6 mil in the bank according to the last 10Q .. defintely not worthless haha<<
True, gives it a BV of 22.2 cents, including OPEX.
Q1 revs of 9.1mm will decline to 2.75mm at best,and I mean very, very best.
Now subtract another ( again optimistic ) 2.0mm for cost of revs and op. exp.
Another 300k for taxes.
Leaves, and mind you this is optimistic 450k or .009 per share.
Don't forget AP and Exp not due to related parties ( I'm not even going to go there ) of 5.25mm.
Now take into account upcomming legal expenses, not even including possible damage awards.
You can debate whether or not this company is worthless, but it had might as well be.
If you want to trade it hey, you might make some money ( sooner or later ) but I really do hope you're not thinking long on this stock. This one is not even in roll the dice territory.
Yep, that's the ticket. It's been a big conspiricy by NMX to pick up 100mm+ dollars in liability and legal costs for pennies on the dollar.
A great PR move as well. Think of the impression they would make on the investment community with such a savy move. It could even make Leno and Letterman.
Seriously, who would want to be the one defending that move to NMX shareholders.
>>Is this company finished?<<
I think so. But really what difference does it make if they hold on down in Pink Sheet territory or just just fade into oblivion.
As I stated to Dosequis last night, there are something like 15,000 securities listed on the three main exchanges plus the OTBB. Surely it could not be very taxing ( read easy ) to find at least one ( read thousands ) that has a more attractive future than OPBL.
The above would have been a logical conclusion after BMO news came out. Now after NMX turns from benefactor to competitor, two resignations and 3 lawsuits ( so far ) later, it's pretty much fact.
Hopefully anyone still in or thinking about getting in will have seen this by now, but just in case.
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-14-2007/0004587187&...
Dosequis,
Questions:
1. BMO or any financial institution for that matter has to get at least more than one independent quotes for marking the market value. Why is Optionable held responsible then? BM should have gotten other quotes as well. If they did not, it is BMO' negligent and unprofesional risk management practices. Why is Optionable held responsible? They would have provided a quote that they got from somebody else in the market.
You are correct that BMO has the obligation to obtain several independent mark to market analysis reports. It is likely the BMO management team will be under intense scrutiny for incompetence. This, however, does not account for the real problem ( for OPBL shareholders ) specifically, whether or not OPBL's senior management fraudulently inflated their analytical reports to BMO in order to help a specific BMO trader ( David Lee ) to cover up some trades gone bad.
Regardless of any negligence on BMO's part, if OPBL initiated, co-operated, covered up, collaborated or participated in any other way toward fraudulent activity it's curtain time for OPBL
At present any evidence to that end is purely speculative, however, the question is does one really want to gamble, the word invest does not apply, at least not currently, in a stock that could be halted at any time due to SEC/FBI/CFTC investigation? Even if the eventual conclusion relieves OPBL of any participation in illegal activity who knows how long the stock may be halted and how long the negative publicity will hamper a rebound. This is especially true considering they have lost some 70-80% of their revenue stream and NMX has effectively thrown them to the wolves - this won't change regardless of the reults of an investigation. Then consider the other revenue lost during an investigation - who would continue to trade with or initiate a business relationship with a company that is currently under investigation.
2. If senior management was in the know and colluded o inflate stock prices, why did they not sell their shares at $7 or more in the open market. It seems like they only sold their
personal shares to Nymex at the agreed price of $2.6?
That would be an easy one. If the allegations are true then they did not expect things to blow up when they did. They probably thought, based on their own analysis, the Lee would be able to turn things around shortly ( summertime and NG ) and the BMO revenues would continue to flow in at even increasing levels.
Again, speculation on my part, but certainly reasonable enough to take a pass on OPBL. It's not like there isn't about 15,000 other companies listed, I'm sure it wouldn't take a lot of work to find a least one that is more attractive.
3. Why would Nymex announce electronic trading thro CME Globex knowing it will cannibalize into its other investment in Optionable. Unless Nymex thinks that market is big enough for many players, inlcuding OPBL and CME. This will onlny finally increasse Nymex's overall capbility. Why would Nymex announce something to lower the tock price of OPBL to a point where it current investment is out of the money?
Maybe they are distancing themselves, essentially being able to say they were scammed too.
That measly little 27mm will seem a minor loss compared to what they might lose if the allegations prove true. Of course, they still stand to lose a ton, but that's another subject.
Or maybe they've determined OPEX, the biggest reason they took a position in OPEL, isn't the platform the expected.
Stated another way, it really doesn't matter why they took this route as much that they simply did take this route.
Check link on msg. 279, there's more but it will give you a place to start.
Can't say I'm surprized at this.
And the law firm is something of a corporate ambulance chaser.
But here it is for what it's worth.
http://www.primenewswire.com/ca/news.html?d=119341
I do too.
If anyone is still holding I would be tempted to say might as well stick it out at this point. The only thing is there is a real possibility of more bad news.
If that happens, don't be surprized to see the stock halted.
If that does happen, when it resumes it'll go straight down to the land of dimes and quarters.
It might do that tommorow anyway if it can't hold a buck today.
Yep, they're done.
Don't forget about the (probable) impending mark to market lawsuit from BMO.
The business model has already unraveled, now the improprieties, read illegallities, will start to be unearthed.
This could well cost MNX many times more than a measley 27 million dollars.
Cassidy and Nordlquist are probably conferring with their attorneys as I post.
Stinkeye,
You stole my thunder, I was going to post same but stupid board went down for maintenence.
This stock is taking on water fast. NMX has abandended ship.
OK, I'm not so hot with the metaphores, but you have to see by now that the future is pretty bleek in the short term, with no illusions as to long term success.
75% of revenue - gone.
Big Brother and 19% owner - going.
Companies reputation, for investors and customers both - in serious question.
You'll see that 19% NMX owns as a write off before you see the 21% @ 4.30 warrents excercised.
I'm not so sure it's even a day trading stock anymore.
Here's something you may want to read - puts it all together pretty succinctly (second article).
http://www.otcspeculator.com/
Berkeley,
Good news for CME and Globex, not so much for OPBL and OPEX.
http://investor.nymex.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=241629
You get an A for loyalty, but take a good look. It will probably go up a little from here as there are some more shorts waiting to cover.
But $9 at the end of the year?
I just don't see how you can justify that, although I can see how you wish it to be so.
OK, here's a little more,
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070509/opbl.ob8-k.html
Second and third sentences - "The Company believes that it is likely that BMO's statement and suspension will have an adverse effect on the Company's business, including its future results of operations and financial condition. The Company is unable to quantify the impact of BMO's statement and suspension at this time".
BMO's contribution to last Q's revenues (including incentives ) where at least 70% - more like 75%. That's a bunch of biz to make up. It would help if their reputation wasn't bruised and possibly battered when all the dirty laundry if it's there, I think so but no one knows for sure at this time, comes out.
Last paragraph from Financial Post article pasted by Fishsurfer,
"For instance, I might say that Bank of Montreal handled this poorly, in that they gave notice to the market that there was an issue," said Mr. Helmig.
Given the tone of Mr. Helmig's response I think it fair to say this business relationship is dead. How would you react to that statement if you where CEO of BMO?
Not to mention quetioning the decision to forwarn BMO shareholders of a $400+ million dollar loss gives some insight to OPBL's philosophy on business ethics.
Don't be surprized to see the SEC and its Canadian equivilent ( CFTC, as I recall ) looking into this one, looking hard.
Generally speaking when there is a hint of impropriety, evidence of genuine impropriety is just around the corner.
Said evidence was right there, in the open, but many elected not to see as they thought this stock was the ticket to the promised land they chose to ignore it.
I've been there myself, if fact just recently I lost a few bucks on a stock I became enamored with that turned out to be less than I anticipated ( to put it nicely ) while a big loss in that position, it was a small loss in overall portfolio. In a strange twist of fate recovered all plus some with OPBL, but that was in February before the current situation was revealed.
OPBL will be dead in the water for weeks if not months get out or at most just trade it if that's you're forte'.
Good luck to all.
dosequis,
1. Marc-Andre Boisseau is the Chief Financial Officer (CFO)
Yes, and if I'm correct about some shady dealings going on he will be in the hot seat, along with CEO Cassidy, of course.
2. Mark Nordlicht was Chairman of Board (not CFO), who has been replaced by Albert Helmig (who was Vice Chairman of Nymex before).
Yes, I incorrectly said Norquist was CEO while typing in a hurry, Sorry. But in another post I did mention OPBL Chairman being replaced by NMX VC. No intent to decieve.
3. Nymex had over 60 days (from the date of announcement of the the equity purchase in Jan '07) to complete due diligence before the news of 'closing' this deal came out in April. In this period, Nymex would have ripped apart every little financial and credit related details before closing on the purchase.
That has nothing to do with possible inproprieties between David Lee ( BMO trader ) and his good buddy Kevin Cassidy this year.
4. I am sure Nymex knew about the customer concentration risk relating to BMO - but it may not have expected BMO to incur a big energy trading loss right around this time.
It's not so much the trading loss but the relationship between one trader ( David Lee ) and OPBL.
Also the potential business loss if BMO reduces it's relationship with OPBL on even eliminates it.
5. Given Nymex has the warrants to buy addtnl 21% at $4.3, I think insders are beating the crap out of this stock. I think Nymex is slowly 'BUYING' or exercising its warrants.
It's in NMX's best interest to buy at a higher price. Also remember NMX is in for the technology (OPEX) in order to compete with their electronic rivals.
6. If the stock remained at or near $4.3 while Nymex completes its addtnl purchase, OPBL does not have to expense these options in its next quarter!!!
True enough, but does Nymex really want to excrcise now?
Would you feel more comfortable buying a 10 dollar stock for 4.30 or a 4.18 stock for 4.30?
Once again NMX is in for OPEX. They have the exclusive rights ( at least as I recall ) they don't need the other 21%, although at some point they may decide they want said 21%. Personnally, I wouldn't think it would be now though.
I think its going down next week will recover to trade sideways at current prices (4.00-4.50) at least till next earnings - at least.
You disagree, but since you have money on the table with OPBL and I don't,
Best of Luck.
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I'd agree with that. At least short term ( as for the last few weeks ) its a day traders dream.
Which brings up another point. Don't forget there's a massive short position in OPBL ( something approaching half the float, I really don't remember ). Apparently the NMX deal doesn't phase these guys. I would suspect the recent activity will enbolden them.
If you think as they do - let the retail folks bring it up 10% and then hammer it.
Dosequis,
As Mark Twain would say "where you stand depends on where you sit".
If you can tolerate the risk then by all means keep holding. Who knows maybe the stock doubles by the EOY.
It's your money. And apparently since a NMX vice chairman was just named OPBL chairman maybe they do have a desire to make this thing go. Or maybe NMX is looking to figure out just what's going on before they pull the trigger on that other 21%.
If you see the CFO get canned, errr, I mean elect to pursue other interests, take that as a positive.
OTOH, if OPBL does have dirty hands NMX will quietly sell off its 19% and seek the plausible deniability route.
I'm not trying to convince you one way or the other, like I said its your money, invest it as you see fit.
I just don't like the smell of this one.
If you stay in I really do hope you make a ton, I root for everybody. It's not like your gain would be my loss.
Look under companies, then select Global and you'll see they have a commodities trading division.
http://www.sempra.com/
rslopez,
I think you said you can't watch the stock all day. If you can you might want to wait a little while this morning as it will probably get a pop early - it may or may not hold, this due to yesterday's PR re: oil option biz. My honest opinion - worth twice what you paid for BTW - is that it will go down about another buck ( by mid next week )recover somewhat and then trade around $4 untill next earnings. The risk is if more bad news comes out, then it's sunk. Of course, you never know, the retail money in this stock is pretty irrational IMHO, I think it's because everyone had such grandiose dreams of this being "the one".
Best of luck whatever you decide.
Just to qualify the numbers on my previous post.
BMO was responsible for just under 1.1mm of the 2.3mm gain for the quarter.
Add to that another 1.1mm for the flip side of those trades.
And then consider the NMX incentives from those trades (about 1.1mm+, by my estimation).
That's 3.3mm in the 2.3mm in revenue gains.
Remember these revenues only reflect the 25% increase in business that BMO provided last quarter. If you take BMO out of the picture entirely - and I know this has not been stated by BMO - but IF they do withdraw their business it will be an absolute disaster for OPBL.
I would suggest that for a moment try to completely forget you are invested in OPBL - in fact imagine you're totally unfamilier with OPBL. Then imagine that a close friend or relative who implicitly trusts you for financial advice asks your opinion of OPBL. Put your analist hat on and what would you conclude? What advice would you give?
Once again, best of luck with all your investments.
rslopez47,
I don't own opbl, but I have. Bought at 5.5 and sold at 8.8 on the big run up. I lost about half my gains buying back in at 7 and selling at 5.5 (the first time it retraced). And haven't touched it since. And I won't. So please don't think I'm bashing the stock so I can get back in cheaper, the thought is unfathomable - I won't ever own this stock again because I absolutely and entirely distrust the management.
The problems are not "hyped up".
The CEO ( Mark Norquist ) resigned 5-1. "To pursue his other business interests". Hmmmm - the day before another "blowout" earnings report and the (business) day after the BMO fiasco. I sincerely question Norquist's explanation.
Some numbers.
BMO was responsible for just under 1.1mm of the 2.3mm gain for the quarter.
Add to that another 1.1mm for the flip side of those trades.
And then consider the NMX incentives from those trades (about 1.1mm+, by my estimation).
There is no reason for some one not already in OPBL to gamble with this stock - that's why people are bailing, especially given the biggest customer will definitely reduce and possibly completely severe their ties to OPBL. Then consider that a listing on the NAZ is out for at least another 3 months - at least.
As for the hedge funds jumping in on the short side, why not, it's a sure thing. I'm sure you like to make easy money too.
Finally, there is a sense of impropriety about the way business has been handled, expect more scrutiny. There are too many opportunities out there to be tied to this anchor.
All that being said, it will probably by a decent day trader for a while but, IMHO, it will be quite some time ( and only with restructured management ) before you will see any significant increase - that lasts more than 24 hours - in the SP.
Good luck, I really do hope you and everyone else who got roped into the real hype surrounding this company can recoup your losses. I've been there believe me, I know had badly it feels.
Planner I would suggest you re-read the article. You will find that the guy from Energy Solutions gave Axis the info.
Walgreens found out and they were PO'd.
So then the ES guy trys to blame the whole mess on Axis in order not to lose his client - Walgreens.
Anyway it's old news, everyone here is well aware of it.
Wilco,
Yes the point is to share info and opine on possibilities, not harass and insult. As to the elusive mother lode may we find it some day. I'm sure it's big enough for all of us.
Tpinvest05,
I generally agree with you about market positioning but I'm a bit more optimistic on the time frame. While it may very well take a couple of years to be bangin' on all eight cylinders, I think we'll start seeing some good sales revs by the end of 2Q 07. Hopefully that will drive the stock up to the 3-4 dollar range while we wait for the whole plan to unfold. Also if we can get off the stinking pink sheets and listed on the AMEX or NASQ that should should have an appreciable positive effect on SP.
P.S. I went back to edit my last post,however, I was too late.
My point is that you have to compare companies in the same or similar industries or you have no comparison. The resturaunt and rising dot com industries of the mid to late '90s have as much to do with this stock as MSFT or AMR today.
Mythical, the potential for a schadenfreude experience seems to be your only motivation for posting here. As some one else opined it may be you got burned and no longer have anything with which to invest or perhaps you just like the attention, but be assured your posts here are but mere noise in cyberspace.
As far as I can tell this isn't the first rodeo for anyone here but Lisa ( something like 300 shares ) If you get to end up saying I told you so I hope enjoy it. If I'm right and this thing takes off, I won't bother to brag - that's not why I'm here.
>>If so, it's not like Boston Market, is it? You remember, where they lost money on every meal sold, so the more revenue they had the more money they lost? <<
I also remember when AMZN was losing money on every sale for years. Last year they had 23B and change in revs with an EBITA of 654MM and net earnings of 292MM.
What's this got to do with AXTG - nothing. Just like Boston Market. If you what to make comparisons make valid ones.
BTW, neither currently or in the past have
i ever owned AMZN.
But hypothetically let's say I bought some in the summer of '97 and sold in the fall of 2000, what would have happened? Remember they had not posted even one positive quarter at this time.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMZN&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Do I think AXGT will mimic the above chart, of course not. In fact I would say that would be a worthless arguement - just like yours.
Here's a link showing you that Amazon's first profitable Q was 4Q 01. Now compare that to the chart above to see my point.
That being a good product in the right environment will produce the profits ( competant management being crucial, as always ).
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B92E8F12F-895F-4E84-88AB-A38CFEBEF25F%7D&...
Indeed so.
The school's flourescent lights, are big and bright ( while reducing the energy expense of a school facility by an average of 20% annually),
deep in the heart of Texas.
Hmmm, I think there just might be a song somewhere in there.
Looks like a little profit takin' - leading to an over reaction - which resulted in some bargain hunting today.
Yeah, I thought the same thing. Sorta post renaissance chic.
But rather expansive once you get past the home page.
Good morning Axisites.
It looks like we have another distributor.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070129/20070129005204.html?.v=1
>>Look at Axis at the top of the list :)<<
JZ, stop it with you're boiler room propaganda.
Everyone knows Axis paid to get to top of that list, give me one good reason to dispute that.
If they would of have only named the company AACME they could have saved thousands.
Well, it only took about 24 hours to break my allocation rule.
I sold a couple PM stocks yesterday ( probably a day too soon ), bought a couple non-PM stocks this morning and after all the dust settled I had a thousand bucks left so I bought another 600 shares of AXTG.
Not only collusion and manipulation but nepotism as well.
Oh, the humanity!
Another scurilous scam uncovered. Good job Penny.
JZ,
Thanks for the link to the report you sent earlier. Good luck with your future purchases. I took another bite this morning which will be it as I have reached my self imposed allocation limit ( at least for now ). I am looking forward to holding this one for the long term.
Haven't heard from Garcia as of yet, but we should have news soon whether it be from IR or in a PR.
Tpinvester05,
Agreed. I'm not even sure it's hedge fund manipulation as much as the normal selloff in anticipation of the pending dilution - damn I hate that word.
But we'll have to wait and see what the specifics are. The who, how much and why. JZ mentioned that in November the company stated a need to sell an additional 4 million shares to cover 07 ops exp.
I emailed Garcia at IR will let everyone know what he says, if he responds before the public disclosure.
Hello tpinvest05,
Welcome aboard. That's a good idea, looking up the patent. Give me about 3 minutes and I'll be back...tick tock tick tock...
OK, I'm back, it actualy only took about 1 minute, but it's probably cheating to use a bookmark. Let's see what we found.
http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FP...
Wow jz,
Great minds post together, but but I like yours better.
BTW, happy birthday old man. I'm looking at the big 5-0 next month. Not quite an old dog, but I take a lot more naps.
And here is Axis' response.
"For their part, Axis Technologies executives say they received emails from Energy Solutions stating their product would be tested at Walgreens. Robert Axelrod, a Houston lawyer who represents Axis, said the company won't release the emails and "has no further comment."
You can believe whatever you want, but it sounds to me like Energy Solutions let the Walgreens test slip out. Axis released it, not knowing it was not for public disemenation. Walgreen's was displeased, which is completely understandable. Verkuylen is covering his a$$ to keep his client - Walgreen's.
Oh and by the way, Energy Solutions isn't a distributor, they're a consulting firm hired by Walgreen - not Axis.
"Energy Solutions Group, an Appleton, Wis., consulting firm whose clients include Walgreen"
I've come to expect better from you Bruce.
Also you neglect to mention that a research engineer at Texas A&M as well as a Brite-Lite ( a distributor ) sales manager both confirm the releases relating to those institutions.