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incredibly low volume
this isn't moving today
or some people are smart enough to realize the name of the game is getting the lowest cost basis possible before any substantial jump in share price to ensure you're maximizing your ability to gain multiples. It's gonna bounce around between the .45 floor and the .63 resistance line for the next few weeks so why get your avg pps down in the meantime and take some gains.
This whole board is bullshit wrapped in hyperbole. post "huge PR coming $1+ tomorrow guaranteed" nonsense all you want but it doesn't change the facts of what is to come and what is on the table.
It's all up to the buyer's position. If I was in at .09 or something like that I wouldn't give a shit about anything until interim data. I was in the .40s and raised to mid .50s with some bad buys so I am using this as an opportunity to take some profits and re-enter in a safer price
The only thing that will boost this stock in any substantial way before the interim data is available would be if President Cheeto Man starts barking about it in briefings. It's not completely out the realm of possibility as I could see him reach for anything during this election, but I haven't made my money banking on the actions of a mad-man
102 patients marks the threshold for INTERIM DATA analysis by the data monitoring committee (not FDA approval)
Test *may* need 144 total people if the data monitoring committee doesn't feel the data from the 102 interim patients is enough to submit to FDA for full use approval.
In lehman's terms, this 102 patient is just a look in to whether or not the drug will be safe AND effective enough to justify using it on people who have no exhausted all other options (currently, the EUA is only for use on people who have exhausted all other treatments aka "the worst of the worst")
12:50 is where they talk about interim data
yo know what they want you to know
When I first started looking at RLF, Dr Yo had less than 1000 subscribers and a basic presence. What do you even know about him? You guys are so desperate to be right you can't see the forest through the trees
he said on the interview something to the effect of
"you are the first person to hear this news as I just got it minutes ago, we hit enrolled patient 102 this morning so in 28 days the data monitoring committee will have first look at interim data"
it's on the dr yo youtube video
What is this EUA approval going to bring to the table besides less administrative red tape around what already exists. What we want is the FDA to approve it for use outside emergency situations which is all based on double blind test. My guess is *MAYBE* we break .70 with EUA approval but def not above the .95 52 week high
This is still good news. If you were in early, you're still good. If your cost basis raised over the last month like mine (low 40s to mid .50s) now is a good time to take your profit and get back in with a lower cost basis.
Not to bumb anyone out but this is going to fluctuate a lot in the next two weeks my guess is that it’s going to get into the high 40s or low 50s and that’s about as good of a reentry is we’re going to see going forward
Agreed, much large patient pool so that should move quicker than IV
Later today when I have some time I’ll take a look though your post history for this last month. Can think about 10-20 times when your confidenT statements here were proven wrong immediately. So knock me all you want and you’ll probably delete this post cuz you’re a controlling moderator, but you are all fluff and no substance. Keeping spouting off stupid platitudes all you want to battle actual analysis from people here
My dude there are plenty of shares to go around even without me selling mine off. In case you forgot there’s 2 billion in the pool
Have fun
Agreed, I’ve been aggressive on this stock since early/mid aug (came in the .40s) and I love the science here. The timeline is def not as good as I would have liked. I think his stock is going to get knocked around a lot over the next few weeks and I will enjoy playing those movements
EUA that’s been filed is only for the most sick of sick who have exhausted all other treatment possibilities. If you think that’s gonna blow the roof off this you’re tripping. Dr J just said on the interview that all that will provide is access to what they have already without as much administrative red tape
The singular thing to significantly boost the PPS with this many outstanding shares is going to be FDA approval / positive interim data
Have fun sweating it out y’all, I’ll be watching for my re entry
I agree. The second I heard that I dumped my 40k shares. I'll re-enter in a couple weeks in the 40s or 50s but for now a lot can change with Operation Warp Speed. I am still expecting interim data analysis to be good so I wouldn't want to be without stocks come week 3/4 of October, but for the time being, no use hanging in here as there's really nothing else to push this stock further.
A month ago we had this to look forward to as far as PR goes or updates
- RLF / Neuro deal (has happened)
- Partnership / distro (happened yesterday)
- Pre-prints (already happened)
- Public Play with Searcy (happened and wasn't exactly what we hoped for)
- Financials (happened)
- GEM share subscription purchase for full funding (happened)
- Interim data of Intravenous Trial (28 days away)
- Full EUA approval (still TBD, 30+ more people need enrolled + 28 days)
- Inhaler trial start (October TBD)
In my humble opinion, it's gonna be a bloody couple weeks as RLF-100 makes progress but without notable hash marks on the field to cross for another 28 days
Yeah it is great news it just means we have 28 days before massive news comes through. the partnership PR came through, distribution PR came through, dilution and funding news came through. The last couple left are the inhaler trial ones, the EUA FDA approval. Those are gonna take time, so why not dump in the 60s and rebuy in the 50s? that's what i'm doing
Why announce results while there's distribution questions up in the air? You have to remember that as an investor, your bias leads you to believe that the best course of action is what will affect the stock price in the short term. As business people, NeuroRX / Relief / Glaxo are all looking at this in much longer horizons (1 year, 3 year, 10 year) and all the uses for it. The long game is that you answer any and all outstanding questions (distribution capabilities, outstanding shares, financing structure, marketing announcements) before you drop trial data. The best path to success is one not filled with ammunition for naysayers
STAY RESILIENT
Also worth noting Pfizer has a 32% stake in a joint venture w/ GlaxoSmithKline which makes sense given the relief therapeutics executive background w/ Pfizer. America likes Pfizer so that makes me optimistic for it to gain traction upon news of this distribution partnership
Later in the video he does also talk about how they've signed the contract w/ the manufacturer for distribution and that they hope to announce that very soon. My guess is that's gonna be the "big news" for September going in to trial data in October.
I think August was much longer of a month with all the empty speculation and high volume flipping. September should probably stabilize a bit unless something huge breaks in another therapeutic / vaccine. This is encouraging information to me
Looks like it was published on 9/10/2020
Screen Shot: https://imgur.com/vM8XqBd
New video w/ Javitt. Around to 20 minute mark he starts talking about trial data and their reaction to the early results
At 20:55
"And now we're about a month away from the first, unblinded look, at the Phase 3, randomized control data. So, we're wondering, are we seeing the world's biggest placebo effect? or we are on to something?"
https://www.lifescienceleader.com/doc/what-s-happening-on-the-front-lines-of-covid-a-ceo-roundtable-on-technologies-in-development-for-the-current-pandemic-0001
In my history, the longer the peer review takes, the worse. If the data is straight forward, it should move through the process faster. As far as what is considered long and short, I have no idea. I put 2 weeks as my market based on some speculation from my years trading
I agree. I have that as the next mile marker for this set at (2) weeks from submission to SSRN (hopefully sooner)
Yeah, same. I could have made some money if i played the yo yo better. Personally, I trade a ton of diff stocks so it's hard to pay attention to micro changes daily for me + i'm not really in this for a few grand here or there. I'm trying to cash out large and recoup the hit i took earlier this year when the market tanked.
Also, you might realize my previous post was deleted. What was I saying about rational thinking?? :)
If the RS comes at a manageable price compared to your expectation then it's still okay, especially if it lists as a result and brings in all the robinhoods/retail and the likes.
I've been here since 8/4/2020 when I bought in so i've definitely viewed and been thankful for your solid DD. I don't think you qualify as one of the people i'm talking about as pushing spec. I appreciate your efforts and involvement here and have found a lot of your analysis to be very useful
A quick stroll of the twitter hashtag or reading posts on this forum will show you there are a lot of people who clearly think this stock needs helping along and I beg to differ. I think this stock needs to reflect expectations for a sustained amount of time -- that's what is going to bring in a lot of MM and retail buyers alike
Just my opinion, I don't know much but I do know expectation management and development
Appreciate it, Curt! Just trying to make sense of the market movements here and I think we can all benefit from not inflating interest based on empty spec alone because those same people who buy in expecting "confirmed PR later today" then turn around and sell the following day when it doesn't deliver. Momentum is being chalked up to being stifled by "short term profit takers" but I think it's also being stifled by inflated expectations.
We don't need to pump this, it's doing fine on its own!
First time poster here and I just wanted to say thank you to everyone posting updates in this board! It is very helpful to see the real time information & conversation presented here.
With that said, I do believe some people are really pushing partial-truths and misquoting articles in order to feed the hype surrounding $RLFTF. I, much like many of you, feel there's a lot of LEGITIMATE excitement and promise with RLF-100. There's no need for hyperbole and false information -- all it does is discredit the idea behind the drug and make it appear to be an artificial pump.
Let's let FACTS and market analysis run the table here, not hype and over-speculation