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GV:AMEX $.66 3 forward PE No Brainer
My last no brainer pick, LEE, doubled in a few days.
My new one is GV:AMEX.
-Just announced largest contract in history.
-Current $77.8 million backlog, compared with $12.2 million at December 31, 2011.
-$55 million of the backlog to be completed in 2012.
I estimate $.20 EPS for 2012 based on $55 Million revenue:
Operating profit = $55 million x 20% = $11 million
Operating costs = $6 million
Profit = $5 million or $.20 per share.
Markets are forward looking. The share price will be bid up rapidly to $1.50 IMO. The same thing happened in 2006 when they won a major contract, the share price skyrocketed.
Also GV is now a much more diversified company as they have focused their marketing across the U.S. rather than just the south.
Short term $1.20 target.
GV:AMEX $.66 3 forward PE No Brainer
My last no brainer pick, LEE, doubled in a few days.
My new one is GV:AMEX.
-Just announced largest contract in history.
-Current $77.8 million backlog, compared with $12.2 million at December 31, 2011.
-$55 million of the backlog to be completed in 2012.
I estimate $.20 EPS for 2012 based on $55 Million revenue:
Operating profit = $55 million x 20% = $11 million
Operating costs = $6 million
Profit = $5 million or $.20 per share.
Markets are forward looking. The share price will be bid up rapidly to $1.50 IMO. The same thing happened in 2006 when they won a major contract, the share price skyrocketed.
Also GV is now a much more diversified company as they have focused their marketing across the U.S. rather than just the south.
Short term $1.20 target.
GV:AMEX $.66 3 forward PE No Brainer
My last no btainer pick, LEE, doubled in a few days.
My new one is GV:AMEX.
-Just announced largest contract in history.
-Current $77.8 million backlog, compared with $12.2 million at December 31, 2011.
-$55 million of the backlog to be completed in 2012.
I estimate $.20 EPS for 2012 based on $55 Million revenue:
Operating profit = $55 million x 20% = $11 million
Operaring costs = $6 million
Profit = $5 million or $.20 per share.
Markets are forward looking. The share price will be bid up rapidly to $1.50 IMO. The same thing haeppenedin 2006 when they won a major contract, the share price skyrocketed.
Also GV is now a much more diversified company as they have focused their marketing across the U.S. rather than just the south.
Short term $1.2O target.
LEE moving again last time ran from $.90 to $1.72.
This was over $3 before the were under BK protection now out of protection generating over 100 Million free cash flow per year will announce mobile initiatives.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LEE
correction LEE moving again last time tan from $.90 to $1.72.
This was over $3 before the were under BK protection now out of protection generating over 100 Million free cash flow per year will announce mobile initiatives.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LEE
LEE moving again last time tan from $.90 to $1.72.
This was iver 43 before the were under BK protection now out of protection generating over 100 Million free cash flow per year will announce mobile initiatives.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LEE
CBRX $.67 was $4 in 2011 Profitabele biotech
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CBRX
CBRX is a no brainer, the only profitable biotech below $1 I am aware of.
Diverse stream of growing license revenue, $.30 per share cash, no debt.
Trades big volumes and moves very fast.
Last 2 times it dropped big 25% rebounds in days.
CBRX $.67 was $4 in 2011 Profitabele biotech
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CBRX
CBRX is a no brainer, the only profitable biotech below $1 I am aware of.
Diverse stream of growing license revenue, $.30 per share cash, no debt.
Trades big volumes and moves very fast.
Last 2 times it dropped big 25% rebounds in days.
SMSI has tremendous upside: $5 SHORT TERM TARGET
Although SMSI has moved up sharply from 2011 lows, it still has tremendous short term upside. A move to the $5 range in the short term is likely due to the following:
FORECAST RETURN TO PROFITABILITY IN 2012. Markets are forward looking, investors will bid up the share price in anticipation of profitability.
WHEN SMSI has been profitable in the past, it has traded in the $8 to $15 range.
COST REDUCTIONS: SMSI has dramatically reduced costs, which will improve efficiencies and GROSS MARGINS going forward. SMSI's cost structure is now LOWER THAN EVER.
UPCOMING NEWS RELEASES: New product announcements including Quicklink at World Mobile Congress next week. More commercial deployments of Mobile Network Detector technology over the next few months.
LOW FLOAT: SMSI has only 35 MM shares outstanding and a 31 million float so can move very fast to the upside.
STRONG BALANCE SHEET: SMSI has $1.50 per share working capital and no debt. Back out these current assets, the market is currently valuing SMSI business at only $1.20 per share.
PWAV 50000 share Insider buy HOD
CIDM + 15% today to $1.76, No brainer candidate. Trades at less than 1 x $60 MM annual EBITDA, growing like crazy, huge market for digital cinemas, current installed digital cinema base provides recession proof recurring revenuw.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/263555-cinedigm-a-micro-cap-play-on-digital-cinema
LEE:NYSE $.89, $3 before financing issues, FINANCING SOLVED
LEE:NYSE is a true no brainer. Annualized earnings of $.80 and trading at $.89.
LEE was trading over $3 before it filed an orderly restructuring under Chapter 11.
THE RESTRUCTURING WILL BE APPORVED NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY 10% DILUTION.
That means that LEE is essentially the same company as it was when it was trading over $3, but with the financilal issues resolved.
$2 by Valentines day.
LEE:NYSE $.89, $3 before financing issues, FINANCING SOLVED
LEE:NYSE is a true no brainer. Annualized earnings of $.80 and trading at $.89.
LEE was trading over $3 before it filed an orderly restructuring under Chapter 11.
THE RESTRUCTURING WILL BE APPORVED NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY 10% DILUTION.
That means that LEE is essentially the same company as it was when it was trading over $3, but with the financilal issues resolved.
$2 by Valentines day.
BPAX is trading for less than cash (cash less long-term liabilities) plus residual pipeline value (even after the libigel disappointments)
Historically, stocks that have seen large drops in share price also can spike further in early January known as "January Poppers" effect.
BPAX has a PDUFA forward looking near term catalyst date on February 14 2011.
I have played many biotech 'failure' stocks for a hefty rebound successfully. Sometimes they bounce immediately, like OREX, last year when contrave was rejected by the FDA.
OREX went from about $2.40 to $4.10 in a few days.
Losing institutions have had to sell in order to push through and claim tax losses before end of year.
Similarly, institutions and big money who have won massively from being short - and their are 21 million of them! will want to push through their tax gains before end of year.
But To recognize their huge gains from BPAX shorts, they must COVER which will add upward pressure to the stock.
When a stock cliffdives such as BPAX, margin selling normally occurs for the first three days. This adds down pressure to the stock, of course.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=BPAX+His...
Expect volume to drop dramatically over the next couple of days as most of the big exits have already taken place.
How will the remaining millions of shorts (some covering has occurred) be able to cover without the needed volume without bidding up the share price?
Friday's drop was a last ditch attempt by shorts that are desparate to cover, to take out stop losses (yes, they know where stops are placed) and induce FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in order to cover as profitably as possible.
Other times, these biotechs that have bombed, rebound a few days to a week or so later.
Unfortunately, only market makers know when that period will likely occur from their institutional order flows that are placed with them on the buy and sell sides.
These are just some of my humble opinions. Please do your own research.
Feel free to agree or disagree with the above, if you have reasons why you think buying in BPAX between .45 - .50 is or isn't a good trading opportunity for a bounce play.
BPAX:NASDAQ $.49 + $.07 headed to $1. Great Yahoo post on why:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=27148&tid=54187&mid=54187&tof=5&frt=2
BPAX $.49 + $.07 headed to $1. Great Yahoo post on why:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=27148&tid=54187&mid=54187&tof=5&frt=2
APP exploding, the next PEIX.
APP reminds me of PEIX.
Like PEIX, a share offering reduced the price to insane levels.
APP has turned the corner, online sales are booming, the balance sheet is solid. APP should report $20 million EBITDA this quarter. APP has way better fundamentals than retailers like CWTR and PSUN thatr are trading at a market cap 3 x higher than APP>
Look for a very strong surge to $1.50 with the January effect.
ECYT had spectacular lung cancer results.
TSON up big pre market on news
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TSON+Headlines
NLST IBM Agreement AH could hit $4 tomorrowNetlist, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into two memory technology Collaboration Agreements. The first agreement is a HyperCloud™ Technology Collaboration Agreement (the “IBM Agreement”) with International Business Machines (“IBM”). Under the IBM Agreement, IBM and the Company have agreed to cooperate with respect to the qualification of HyperCloud™ technology for use with IBM servers and to engage in certain joint marketing efforts if qualification is achieved. IBM and the Company have agreed to commit resources and funds in support of these activities. The IBM Agreement is non-exclusive. There can be no assurance that the efforts undertaken under the IBM Agreement will result in any new revenues for the Company.
The second agreement is a Collaboration Agreement (the “HP Agreement”) with Hewlett-Packard Company (“HP”). Under the HP Agreement, HP and the Company have agreed to cooperate with respect to the qualification of HyperCloud™ technology for use with HP servers and to engage in certain joint marketing efforts if qualification is achieved. HP and the Company have agreed to commit resources and funds in support of these activities. The HP Agreement is exclusive for a period of time. HP and the Company agree to collaborate on the future use of HyperCloud™ load reduction and rank multiplication technologies for next generation server memory for HP. There can be no assurance that the efforts undertaken under the HP Agreement will result in any new revenues for the Company.
PATH up after hours confirms NDA resubmission in 2012
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/path/after-hours
SMTX $2.40 5 forward PE. No brainer, My best January effect play
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SMTC-Reports-Third-Quarter-pz-2417690328.html?x=0&.v=1
SMTX is my favorite January effect play. On of tne few growth stories out there, they had to hire 550 employees to meet increased demand.
SMTX has only 16 million shares Outstanding and is forecasting $.16 EPS for Q4 and around $.50 EPS for 2012 with $260 Million sales.
In 2005 SMTX traded around $8 and results were not as good.
The most successful US Hedge fund, Renaissance, owns a big stake.
SMTX $2.40 5 forward PE. Mo brainer, My best January effect play
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SMTC-Reports-Third-Quarter-pz-2417690328.html?x=0&.v=1
SMTX is my favorite January effect play. On of tne few growth stories out there, they had to hire 550 employees to meet increased demand.
SMTX has only 16 million shares Outstanding and is forecasting $.16 EPS for Q4 and around $.50 EPS for 2012 with $260 Million sales.
In 2005 SMTX traded around $8 and results were not as good.
The most successful US Hedge fund, Renaissance, owns a big stake.
PEIX 200,000 Insider buy Hottest NASDAQ penny
The Ethanol sector will be THE HOTTEST SECTOR IN 2012. Here is why PEIX will be $2 by January:
PEIX is in FAR better shape than when it traded at a $300 Million market cap in 2008. IF PEIX TRADED AT THE SAME MARKET CAP TODAY IT WOULD BE $4.
Insider buys: Insiders have been bought over 500,000 shares since August.
Valuation discount: PEIX is trading at a HUGE discount to competitors. PEIX has a 0.05
Price / Sales ratio compared to the Industry average of .22.
PEIX is benefiting from very high ethanol prices. THE OUTLOOK FOR ETHANOL DEMAND AND PRICING IS VERY STRONG.
The mandated level of ethanol in gasoline moves from 12.6 billion gallons in 2011 to 15 billion gallons in 2015.
PEIX 200,000 Insider buy Hottest NASDAQ penny
The Ethanol sector will be THE HOTTEST SECTOR IN 2012. Here is why PEIX will be $2 by January:
PEIX is in FAR better shape than when it traded at a $300 Million market cap in 2008. IF PEIX TRADED AT THE SAME MARKET CAP TODAY IT WOULD BE $4.
Insider buys: Insiders have been bought over 500,000 shares since August.
Valuation discount: PEIX is trading at a HUGE discount to competitors. PEIX has a 0.05
Price / Sales ratio compared to the Industry average of .22.
PEIX is benefiting from very high ethanol prices. THE OUTLOOK FOR ETHANOL DEMAND AND PRICING IS VERY STRONG.
The mandated level of ethanol in gasoline moves from 12.6 billion gallons in 2011 to 15 billion gallons in 2015.
PEIX 200,000 Insider buy today $2 Target
The Ethanol sector will be THE HOTTEST SECTOR IN 2012. Here is why PEIX will be $2 by January:
PEIX is in FAR better shape than when it traded at a $300 Million market cap in 2008. IF PEIX TRADED AT THE SAME MARKET CAP TODAY IT WOULD BE $4.
Insider buys: Insiders have been bought over 500,000 shares since August.
Valuation discount: PEIX is trading at a HUGE discount to competitors. PEIX has a 0.05
Price / Sales ratio compared to the Industry average of .22.
PEIX is benefiting from very high ethanol prices. THE OUTLOOK FOR ETHANOL DEMAND AND PRICING IS VERY STRONG.
The mandated level of ethanol in gasoline moves from 12.6 billion gallons in 2011 to 15 billion gallons in 2015.
Here are some useful PEIX Links:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Pacific-Et...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/304572-p...
PATH moving, November 9 FDA end of review meeting
Following an end-of-review meeting with the FDA on November 9th to discuss the questions the FDA raised in its August's Complete Response Letter (CRL), NuPathe (PATH) expects to determine the timing of the resubmission of its NDA and the commercial launch of its migraine patch. In addition to NP101, NuPathe (PATH) has two additional proprietary product candidates: NP201 for the continuous symptomatic treatment of Parkinson’s disease, for which the company plans to partner, and NP202, in preclinical development, for the long-term treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. NuPathe’s initial public offering of common stock in August 2010 raised $50 million in gross proceeds. Safeguard has deployed $18.3 million of capital in NuPathe (PATH) since September 2006 and owns 18% of its outstanding common shares. "
Maybe not in the long term a fundamentally great business, I am playing the inevitable November - January bounce to $4 - $5 range.
They are also looking at diversifying into selling glasses, etc.
LCAV $2.5 bouncing back from lows was $5 in August
Dirt cheap. $2.7 per share cash trading at $2.55. Was $5 in August, only 18 million float. Just reported 8% increase in eye surgery bookings year over year.
These low floaters tend to rebound very fasy in November small cap season.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LCAV+Interactive#symbol=LCAV;range=2y
LCAV bouncing back from lows.
Dirt cheap. $2.7 per share cash trading at $2.55. Was $5 in August, only 18 million float. Just reported 8% increase in eye surgery bookings year over year.
These low floaters tend to rebound very fasy in November small cap season.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LCAV+Interactive#symbol=LCAV;range=2y
PATH is next TSPT
I bought TSPT at $2.8 I have also been loading on PATH.
There are lots of similarities.
Low float with lots of cash and traded near $10 earlier in the year.
Very effective treatments for a large market medical need.
Both had FDA rejections not because of effecacy, but safety issues.
PATH released a PR a few days ago that addresses the safety issue. If they get approval for the NDA resubmission PATH could be $5 in a hurry.
"This CRL gives us confidence that we can provide the information needed to support FDA approval for our migraine patch in a timely manner,"
"The Company believes that the complete data set for NP101-009 will be supportive of the resubmission of its NDA to the FDA."
Also, PATH insiders have been buying
PATH could be a mini TSPT
I loaded up on TSPT lows 3's.
I have also been loading on PATH, which has a very effective Migraine drug. There are lots of similarities.
Both have low float with lots of cash and traded near $10 earlier in the year.
Both have very effective treatments for a large market medical need.
Both had FDA rejections not because of effecacy, but safety issues.
PATH released a PR a few days ago that appears to address the safety issue. If the get approval for the NDA resubmission PATH could be $5 in a hurry.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NuPathe-Reports-Positive-Top-iw-125358272.html?x=0
VVTV $2.27 Insiders bought at $3.14 recently
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=VVTV+Insider+Transactions
VVTV is s no brainer IMO
-Home TV amnd internet shopping
-Was $7 in the summer and near $4 a few weeks ago
-Insiders have bought recently above $3
-Trades at price/sales of 0.2 compared to 0.6 Industry average
-Healthy balance sheet. Net current assets about $1.5 per share.
-Entering into strong Christmas season when the stock has historically taken off.
-Will be EBITDA positive for year.
I think VVTV will rebound fast like TLB did to $3.50.
VVTV $2.27 Insiders bought at $3.14 recently
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=VVTV+Insider+Transactions
VVTV is s no brainer IMO
-Home TV amnd internet shopping
-Was $7 in the summer and near $4 a few weeks ago
-Insiders have bought recently above $3
-Trades at price/sales of 0.2 compared to 0.6 Industry average
-Healthy balance sheet. Net current assets about $1.5 per share.
-Entering into strong Christmas season when the stock has historically taken off.
-Will be EBITDA positive for year.
I think VVTV will rebound fast like TLB did to $3.50.
$.35 - $.50 Fair Value for YRCW
I will post more extensive analysis later.
This assumes the next round of conversion takes place and 3.5 Billion shares OS.
This is based on following pro forma data from Q2 report:
Net current assets: $800 million
Debt: $1.6 Billion.
Net debt: $800 million.
Q2 EBITDA: $65 million.
Annualized EBITDA $250 million.
Since YRCW said business will improve in second half of yeat, $250 MM EBITDA is conservative.
Share Valuation at 8 x EBITDA:
$2 billion - $800 million debt = $1.2 billion or $.35
Share Valuation at 10 x EBITDA:
$2.5 billion - $800 million debt = $1.7 billion or $.50
Conservative YRCW fair value $.50
Assume full conversion of prefferreds and 4 billion shares OS
$200 million more cash from conversions raises current assets to $600 million
Net debt (current assets - current liabilities - long term debt) would be about $600 million
EBITDA = $250 Million
Enterprise value at 10 x EBITDA = $2.5 billion
Share value = $1.9 billion or $.50 per share.
Conservative YRCW fair value $.50 Assume full conversion of prefferreds and 4 billion shares OS
$200 million more cash from conversions raises current assets to $600 million
Net debt (current assets - current liabilities - long term debt) would be about $600 million
EBITDA = $250 Million
Enterprise value at 10 x EBITDA = $2.5 billion
Share value = $1.9 billion or $.50 per share.
Conservative YRCW fair value $.50
Assume full conversion of prefferreds and 4 billion shares OS
$200 million more cash from conversions raises current assets to $600 million
Net debt (current assets - current liabilities - long term debt) would be about $600 million
EBITDA = $250 Million
Enterprise value at 10 x EBITDA = $2.5 billion
Share value = $1.9 billion or $.50 per share.
DSCO NDA resubmission approval should be this week Could have large short term upside (remember TSPT?)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Discovery-Labs-Submits-prnews-3494001288.html?x=0&.v=1