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Its valuation was (and still is!) insane, just like every other company in this sector. Sure, you can say that others (like CWBHF) are worse, but it doesn't really matter. The entire sector is getting pummeled because investors are realizing they got way ahead of themselves. There was way too much optimism reflected in valuations, and as reality continues to creep in you're obviously going to see massive moves to the downside like the one ELLXF experienced. Let's be clear: Elixinol is a disaster fundamentally. Things are getting worse every quarter. There's nothing atypical about a 75% move lower for a stock with financials this bad in a sector that was massively overheated before sentiment turned.
Again, though, I'm staying far away from this. I was dumb enough to believe in this company back when it was actually profitable and had revenue growth, and because of that I only broke even when the inevitable happened. All I can say is be careful.
By "unique," I mean something that doesn't apply to others in the sector. The former of your links is likely the reason for this rally, but if that is the case, I view the rally with extreme skepticism because the rest of the sector is not responding as euphorically, although there have been moderate gains. For the latter, it's hard to chalk up a 100% gain (on ASX, of course) to dog treats. Are they even new? I know they've been targeting the pet CBD market.
Australian listing up 36%... and so the rally keeps cooking. I think it’s very hard to justify this recent price action based off what is publicly known. Barring some sort of a unique catalyst, I think this rally falls apart. Not positioned in this, though, nor have I been for months.
Those potentially could be tailwinds, but in the US this is a very crowded space and Elixinol may struggle to maintain or grow their market share specifically in the US due to the sheer amount of competition they face here and their international strategy. I will say as well that I'm not too optimistic on FDA actions regarding CBD given their current stance. It's dangerous to speculate on this stuff, and one of the main reasons I'm long on Elixinol is because their focus on growth in Europe and elsewhere outside of the US should provide somewhat greater stability than companies focused solely on NA markets. Sector-wide, I just don't see the same optimism as before and I doubt Elixinol can stage a sustained move higher in the near-term as a result. Look at the price action since the Q1 disappointment... very choppy, but also very downbeat--just like most others in the sector.
Last two quarterlies have been extremely weak. Sentiment is going to be consistently pessimistic as long as this is the case and it's unlikely ELLXF can follow broader sector rallies. That's why we're down 50% from ATHs instead of rallying strongly back toward highs like certain other stocks in this space. Nothing to preclude a short-term pop near oversold levels right now, but the days of cannabis companies managing to maintain insane valuations and rally on weakness are over. The sector is returning to reality and so is ELLXF. Best case as I see it is extreme chop until Q3 earnings... if top line growth accelerates a bit and they don't burn as much cash, maybe a more sustainable rally toward previous levels can occur. For now, I'm not seeing it, personally.
I don't know anymore, man... I've been long on this (and CWBHF) since December, but the outlook has worsened severely and I'm not sure there will be much of a short-term bounce here, even with how Charlotte's Web is rallying right now. The quarterlies were just bad, really. Revenue growth still lagging, massive cash burn... it's hard to envision any big rally here in the wake of disappointing results. Long-term is also questionable, they'd have to experience massive revenue growth to achieve any sort of sustainability--not enough cash to sustain this for more than a year or so. I'm still holding, but as I see it things have deteriorated quite a bit. Good luck.
Offered shares priced at an 8.7% discount to EXL's prior close.
Elixinol requested a trading halt on ASX pending an announcement. Keep an eye on this.
Up over 10% on ASX right now.
Correct me if I’m wrong or misremembering, but wasn’t this rollout announced in the Q1 report? What’s the new information here that’s fueling this intraday rally?
AU listing up ~2.5% currently. If this holds, expect a move back above 3 tomorrow.
How so?
So, basically:
-31% revenue decline QoQ
-Dramatically increased inventory in anticipation of an expected increase in consumer demand
-Improved balance sheet from Q4 (IIRC), cash of 27.4m
-Signed an agreement with Presence Marketing to gain shelf placement and support product sales on an ongoing basis throughout the US.
-Partnered with Multiply, "a nationally recognised PR and Analytics Agency"
-Received an order for 13 SKUs from a large brick and mortar national retailer initially across 330 stores; expecting a rollout to over 1000 US stores
In the UK:
-Reached an agreement with Cambrian Alliance Group, which has over 1200 member pharmacies, rollout commenced in April
-Entered into a sales and distribution agreement with a major distributor; they received a purchase order for 60,000 units of 6 SKUs for distribution across 250 stores
In AU:
-Still no update on licensing for Nunyara
They justify the revenue decrease as "driven by Elixinol’s strategic decision to reduce focus on low margin private label business in the US to enable increased capacity for expected future growth of higher margin branded products and provide the ability to capture further market share."
Don't know how much of the distribution news is new, but tomorrow is likely to be a decline. EXL currently down over 3%.
Lol I briefly invested in “other rival” a few months back hoping that it would get pumped and I could make a short-term profit. I sold the day before it hit $7 because it was all too shady for me. I’d say that “other rival” is one of the most likely stocks of the cannabis boom to be engaging in some fraudulent activities...
Australian listing, EXL, up ~10%. How far can we go?
Might be a dumb question, but is converting the ASX offering's price from AUD to USD a fair way to estimate the way the OTC offering will move the next day? EXL currently up .35, or 7.14%, to 5.25--which converts to 3.74 USD.
Already doubled my investment from December, looking good. Did a little bit of profit-taking because I think we're a bit too overbought now and I don't think there's enough news to back it up. We'll see, though.
They're lobbying the Australian government to try and get the licenses they need to go forward with Nunyara, right? The delay is concerning.
I expect a close below 2.67. Seems to be resistance around that level, judging from the price action through February. Not expecting a breakout anymore barring some important news. However, regardless of what happens in the short-term, ELLXF looks like a good one to hold long-term, and having held it since early December (and increasing my position size a few times) I feel optimistic. I think ELLXF and CWBHF will be two of the largest players in this space going into the future.
It can breakout from ~2.7. Just needs to hold at this level. Wasn't able to do so late February, but the sector seems very healthy right now, so this looks like it could be legitimate.
Looking very good. New all-time high above 2.70... not sure if it will hold.