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Except for one little detail, the PH 3 has NOT completed, the data is 'unknown'..
And few seem to care to this point in time cause its not a 'sexy' development thats going to sell a lot of the development..
and as a disclaimer: I do expect the data to come close or better than the PH 2 release. Or I wouldn't still be following this one.
sidenote: one of the problems in todays market is, far too many stocks are way ahead of what they can honestly justify by their own fundamentals. I can agree with your $30 once the PH 3 data is known. But until then, without something to sell, and even if the data is good, something they won't be able to sell for approx 6-9 months after the data is known, if even that soon (data assembly, NDA developed and submitted, then 6-9 months for the FDA to act)..
Yep, HYMC has been on my radar for some time, but as has been my trend with mine developers (which is what they are again since they stopped mining and are shifting in upgrades that could take into 2023 if slide 18 of their Feb presentation is accurate), I am really reluctant to just sit on their shares until they are at the point of commencing mining.
Cause at that point, hopefully the secondaries to raise cash are 'over'. So looks like I am done with this one, cause at sub 50 cents it was attractive for someone not mining. But that was before I saw this timeline. And now with the potential for a float increase, I am done with this one.
Damn, another 'potentially good idea' with a good setup wrecked.. Well, thats what this market does isn't it.. Some are winners, some are losers and its all a matter of good fortune with respect to the timing of your getting in.
Good luck to all.. and may we all find more prospects to put time and energy into... that end up rewarding our efforts
For those of you that think these shares will NOT be sold off, given as compensation, or otherwise so that they eventually start to end up in the OUTSTANDING/FLOAT column and affect the market cap (dilution to existing shares)...
Are you SERIOUS??
The ONLY reason they printed 1 Billion new shares was cause they SEE a purpose for them. And the only remaining questions are:
-can they 'quietly' sell them into the market to raise capital USING the same thing they just did, only the vote of the majority shareholders?? (IE, sorry retailers, you have no 'say' in what we do)
-when does it start...
Added some today, promptly sold the May $7.5s for $1.05/
Decided to take the 'max' from the calls for this month, and roll the dice on keeping the shares.
Why? big jump off the $5.2 area, volume is declining indicating its fading from the recent attention (but it also won't surprise me if as it 'quiets' down, some big boy steps in and grabs a basket of shares, start another run higher, so will be looking for that)
And if it does 'dip', its likely that it will fall below the 13 Day M. Average (instead of the more typical 50) I use, and then have to arm wrestle with that MA line for a bit.
And if I have the shares called away? Gains will be 'achieved' and thats never a bad thing either. Ok, enough for a while unless there is something 'important' to say.
Take care
Slide 18 of their presentation at the Feb 2022 BMO Conference is implying they do not appear to be considering recommencing actual mining operations until sometime at the earliest, late 2023 if even then.. The slide is titled: DEVELOPMENT PATH: Next Steps
Just a mentioning for those in a hurry to buy shares as its winding down from this latest 'run up'... to use this link, get rid of the obvious spaces.
and it looks like the reason is to upgrade their 'infrastructure'.
the link:
hycroftmining.com / wp-content / uploads / 02-2022-BMO-Conference . pdf
and another one to monitor is GSV (Neveda developer, another one I have been monitoring and have traded in the 'past')
In for the long haul as well. Been 'trading' this one off and on for a few years now, right around the time the Ph 2 results came out. Plan was to 'increase' the position into the PH 3 data release, and sell CCalls as it would support into approval.
So we will see. Just watching to see if the 'volume' will drop off, some profit taking takes place and holds it under $7.5 (could be wishful thinking now thanks to this news).. But hey, the way it goes isn't it..
Good luck to you as well.
Yep, what it means is that they can 'sell' them into the market as they deem 'necessary' without notifying anyone its happening.
Got to love it.. But not surprised. Many a miner/developer issues a boatload of shares just to cover the costs to get up and running.
And then they do the r/split to stay 'listed' if they can't get mining operations going to justify the share price.
Yeah, afraid of that happening with reference to your comment about the staying power. Cause I had sold some of the May $7.5s before this news broke.
What I have to hope for now is that it holds under $7.5, consolidates this 'news' for a bit and lets the volatility and time premiums fade so that i can if I need to close out the calls for 'gains' between now and mid May..
So yep, watching with interest for signs of big buyers nibbling and helping to drive the price up.. To close, sure wasn't expecting that kind of news before the PH 3 completed.. (smile: ie, what can ya do right??)
Watching the morning activity and happened to catch what tends to indicate someone with deep pockets is 'accumulating'. Have noticed in the past that the 'big boy's like to buy/sell around 10 AM and 3 PM.
And right around a few minutes to 10, shares traded/minute spiked to 80-100K for a few minute period which is indicative of a big order being placed. It also spiked the May call premiums quite nicely for anyone that likes to sell covered calls for a little extra cash. Could have gotten 70 cents a call on the 10s, $1.10 on the $7.5s..
Was afraid this recent 'deal' was going to draw attention to this one, because again, that deal wouldn't have happened unless the 'partner' saw something they liked.
Which means I have to get serious and start grabbing those additional shares I was planning on getting before June a bit earlier and now, a bit pricier than I had expected to be paying..
disclaimer: own shares, selling covered calls while we waited for June/July to arrive
I have been thinking that as long as they did as well as the PH 2, it was going to be going to the fda for an approval decision.
And on a more serious note, I was kind of hoping the company would have gotten a PH 3 mid point data dump and been able to say, we are 'replicating' the PH 2, let us get this product to market and help people out already.
Then there is their 'other' program thats got my interest as well, although that one is looking like its going to be a few years before a PH has anything to say..
On HYMC, again, I was a liking the chart formation it had in progress as it slid under 40 cents.
I was getting tempted cause one of these days, they will recommence moving ore.
And now with this move? I am looking for it to look for a $ range again unless they say recommencing is being looked at by DAY X.
But for the moment, I am purely in bios. Understand the 'view' that U-23x's could be in demand. But its going to take the small module reactors effort to gain traction. Question is, will the eco-terrorists allow it to happen.
It was around 30000 shares of ANV when the bankruptcy happened. Kids accounts had some shares as well.
In the kids accounts, it was actually hard to sell them because they had 'some', but we had to wait for the price to hit something like 7 or 8 cents if I remember right so that when they were sold off, it could cover the cost of the trade and leave a few dollars 'left'.
And they were sold because of Hycrofts timeline to get the mine into production. Sure as hell wasn't going to dump more money down the rat hole.
Only other thing I care to remember was how some lost a hell of a lot of money according to them when the bankruptcy was declared. I hadn't loaded up like I was planning to once they got closer to commencing mining. But it was a 'lesson learned' with respect to investing in miners. Let them get 'close', let them prove they are likely to get their permit before committing capital in a 'buy and hold' stance vs 'trade the runs' as they give in the early years.
Yes it does, but you still have to combine a fundamental analysis to determine IF the company is giving folks a reason to buy or sell in conjunction with what the chart is showing..
and unfortunately in todays world, its tough to find a chart that can take its time to develop a nice pattern before some damn computer program jumps the pattern 'early' and disrupts it.
Again, sold mine a few years ago after holding them a few to see what happens. Was pretty clear they weren't going to get mining in time to make the warrants worth anything. So rather than let them expire totally worthless, sold them off for 'a little more than' worthless.
Yep, shareholders of ANV got royally screwed by that surprise bankruptcy.. and what was interesting was how fast Hycroft stepped in and took over (almost as it was a 'planned' series of events)..
they gave 'warrants' as compensation for the stealing of shares when they caught folks unawares when ANV filed for bankruptcy. The warrants were frigging worthless. Finally sold what I had for 'something'... rather than trying to exercise them
Yep, one hell of a mess for quite a while after ANV declared bankruptcy. But the 'land' and reserves were what made me keep paying attention to them..
You do realize how MAX PAIN works don't you??
You do realize that the concept behind Max Pain is to make the 'most' calls/puts worthless on OE day?
And for the record, their OPTIMAL Max Pain price is $2.50 today, but anywhere between 2 and 2.50 is in play if you look at their MP chart for todays expiration.
Ya got a link to the 'locked in clause'?? Just curious cause I am aware that there are lockdown periods on some of these. Not aware that it applies in 'all' of these situations.
And yes Sprott is heavily invested in a lot of developers. Great way to make a fortune is to buy 'deep cheap' and let em ride for years to fruitition...
(PS: been involved in the PM sector investing, monitoring for over a decade now, so HYMC is not my first PM rodeo)
and one last comment, if it took place as I think it did, Sprott and AMC are both already sitting on some nice gains.
Fully agree..
It would’ve been nice to get it at .28 tho
Why I had it on my radar cause they do have one heck of an asset there if they can get it going 'properly'.. When they shutdown mining, it was a set up for a nice 'buy in' opp, so yeah, a bit ticked off that this 'run er up' move took place like it did.
But heck it did keep them listed, got them 'compliant' again. And its not hurting them that the price of gold has caught a tail breeze thanks to the war and chaos its creating..
So going to have to see what happens, but have liked this mine since it was ANV.. and it was one hell of a setup for a buy at 29 cents.
be patient and let it bottom out before buying more. This thing was just at sub 50 cents for a reason.
and sprott and amc and hymc scored big points I suspect by getting their positions established and then announcing what they had done. And as is the norm, the market 'fell' over the pump and dump..
But these guys suspended mining operations last Nov for a reason. So until they recommence, they are worth what? A $??
Time will tell, but I suspect a lot of folks are going to realize they have been had by this move up that also helped them keep listed on the NASD..
nothing more than a frigging pump up run. And yeah, I am ticked cause I was watching it off and on, thinking of grabbing some shares down 'low', but then got surprised by the 'NOISE'PR And I would be willing to bet, AMC is one of those 'selling' right now.. maybe even sprott and I wouldn't blame them one bit for taking advantage of those that got suckered in on this move.
Maybe the purpose of the 100 for 100 is to generate a post r/split hit to the share price.
Cause can only figure those with 100 shares will be inclined to take the 24x gains (yeah, expecting a 1-25 as well, they would be foolish not to once they are going to do one)..
Maybe cause a mini sell down in the share price, that the bigger players can take advantage of by buying the dip..
Again, never saw anything like this and you KNOW there is a 'reason' for it happening. Now the question is, beyond grabbing a 100 and selling right away is 'what'..
Projected Market Cap??
with something like 1.7 Billlion shares at 21 cents, market cap of $375 Million (roughly)
Can see them targeting $5 or more/sh to get the institutional players 'interested'..
So would expect to see the max of a 1-25 r/s gets them roughly 68 Million shares at around $5,25.sh. Market cap still $375 Million..
Question is, what is the projected market cap at some point down the road cause its going to take a while to ramp up enough sales to even justify the current market cap let alone something higher.
And yes, question is, post the r/split will it drop? I suspect that IF the big boys like what they see for a future market cap, they will be nibbling not too long after the r/split..
So any guesses? Projections?? Just curious and I will be buying 100 shares tomorrow (LOL)..
disclaimer: own none, but been watching it for a while. Funny as heck to see them say, you can buy $22 worth of shares (100) and be worth $500 the day the r/split kicks in.. Never saw anything like that before..
While good for 'noise', what I especially like is knowing someone 'else' must be liking what they see taking place. For doubt they would commit to an agreement if they didn't.
And on top of it, the 'dollars' involved aren't chump change. Makes me wonder just what the perceived need and the pricing model might be.
Disclaimer: own shares, someone I know took advantage of the pop today to sell some 'pricey' covered calls for this coming OE day on their shares. Too bad it wasn't me as I already have all of my shares under CC's.
The primary reason I have left this one alone despite monitoring it, is the lack of uptick in their EPI offering. Was looking to see if the market would adopt a cheaper alternative to the expensive one that dominated the market. So far, hasn't happened.
And on Zimhi, I suspect the same thing is going to happen. What we use (Narcan) works, is effective. And having been in the bio investing world for some time, its not surprising to see that the 'established' maintains ts position as long as its 'working'. And the new product is going to likely have a heck of a time gaining market share unless it can demonstrate whats 'out there' already is 'ineffective' in comparison.
So yeah, not expecting zhimhi to gain market share any time soon, cause folks get comfortable with something that works, and they are reluctant to change'..
disclaimer: ADMP is a case study in product approval, but that the market isn't interested in (so far) And the share price reflects it. (but that I monitor cause at this price, if something starts to change?? Could be a nice entry price)
Was in ANV before it surprised us and declared bankruptcy, and then became HYMC..
a lot of folks were screwed in a bankruptcy filing that we didn't see coming.
Shares quietly up to 22 Million now.. Hmmm.. must have missed something cause the last time I looked, it was somewhere around 14 Mil..
Institutional ownership isn't too bad at this stage, 1.4% for 'insiders', 15% for institutions. Going to be monitoring to see if the institutional % rises as May approaches
Approaching the 3rd qtr may finally be a reason for a move..
Have to remember, they said something about releasing information on the Ph 3 in the 3rd qtr. So as the 3rd qtr approaches, be my guess that we might finally see some 'interest' from the short termers, speculators who watch bios for these type of events to show up and promote a little demand (given this one isn't a household name, the product isn't going to have a 'well known' market to enter into, not sure how many are even paying attention to this one)..
So own some shares, intend to do some adding for the PH 3 release and hopefully its as good as the PH 2 and they proceed with an NDA..
with what is it only 11-14 Million shares outstanding?? Someone has a target price on this of over $50/sh... but for me, thats ONLY after approval...
But, with the end of the PH 3 now into mid 2022, results maybe 3rd qtr, then some time to submit the NDA??
Not surprised its not really doing anything at the moment for its not something really 'sexy' thats going to catch the markets attention like say a Sava or AVXL (alzheimers)
The bigger issue is IF this CMO doesn't get its act together (reg compliance), it could lose its fDA cert to be a CMO...
But as someone who has done 'supplier' qualifying audits, there are all kinds of 'things' that can go wrong..
The question is, what are the 'issues', and are they in the category of, we can't manufacture anything cause we can't be trusted to put out a quality product..
On the other hand, it could be that CRMD is staying one step ahead of the ambulance chasing so called 'legal' firms by being over cautious to not give them any reason to 'sue' (to line their pockets while claiming to care about the little 'shareholders')
Stock and company are doing well but no one cares.
part of the problem is the damn emotional cycles folks try to create in the Precious Metals sector..
PROMISES that gold and silver are 'going to the moon' for instance only for the 'psych' experiment to fade away and end up leaving folks wondering what happened (wonder for instance how many own physical silver and gold simply because of the hype and hope promoted thinking they were going to score big $s??)
Anyways, agree, AXU is a good buy at the current price... just got to figure out tho what price they can justify if they get a p/e of 10 because the sector isn't finding a lot of love from the market..
My target prices still are $3.50/sh once production gets going seriously and see $5 as a possibility even if the sector is 'out of favor'.. and will adjust as they start to show us what their profits will be..
But damn its been a looooong ride on this one thanks to that year delay in the water permitting..
Been a long ride, and now it appears it will be a bit longer with the news that they just enlisted their last participant..
Won't be surprised if it dips back towards $6 once the effect of the news fades away...
But like many a things, its the 'end game' that matters.
And oft requires a lot more patience than first expected (smile)
some conference today, looks like 'someone' likes what they heard, up 64 cents today.
Damn.. was hoping it would drop to $4 with around a year just to enroll enough folks for the 12 month follow up period that comes next.
Oh well...
disclaimer: have traded the shares a few times, but own none at the moment as I was monitoring the slow slide.. (till it wasn't)
So what sparked this morns activity?? Seeing no news, and vol in the pre wasn't showing a lot of interest taking place...
But just enough to push the price up tho...
never sold 'put' options...
But if I was going to consider it, maybe the Jan 7.5s at $1.95/sh?? Means I could get the shares at $5.6/sh??
But IF the PH 3 goes as anticipated, wouldn't expect that I will be able to make a buy at $7.5... after Dec..
The lack of 'news' or "PR" is forcing me to sell covered calls on the shares I hold.
But the lack of PR/news is also keeping the 'volatility' premium on the calls quite 'low'... But that said, did sell the Aug 10s for 75 cents/sh..
So making a little something as the share price flounders waiting for something to break this 'silence'..
But now have to hope they don't do a data release/dump before Aug so that I can keep the shares...
Have another one (CRMD) that we were expecting to get their FDA approval over with, that was going to be a source for rolling gains into ATMN in anticipation of their PH 3 completion... Think this one has been 'quiet', FDA really screwed CRMD from a Feb approval to a 4th qtr resubmission over issues at their selected drug manufacturer..
and like you, I still own shares, but much less than before because I am waiting for another one to have its fun at the FDA for approval.
Plan is to sell some of that one post approval and start laddering up the share count on ATNM.. Be a nice time to buy some on these pullbacks.
Still selling covered calls on the shares I do hold, with contracts expiring here in May...
Looking to sell another round after that...
Like a few I have been in, demands a lot of patience, at least in this ones case, given what we know already, there should be a reward in the end for holding on..
agree, time to be patient and see how this goes. I fully expect a r/split, just have no idea when.
But if they do one 'early' in order to run a secondary offering to help fund the IDE... I wouldn't expect the share price to hold for the next 2 years...
So going to try and time some trades along the way... following that line of thought that there is a time to 'trade' and a time to 'buy and hold'...
and only with time and hindsight will I know if I got it right..
Good luck...
PS: can see this being approved based on what I have read so far... unless of course the FDA can be corrupted to protect an existing one that could lose sales (smile)
IF I remember something correctly, the R/split is to get the share price up so that the bigger players who like share prices above $5 can 'participate'.
So unless they surprise with an 'early' approval, from a presentation on their website, they indicate:
-11-15 months to complete ENROLLMENT for the IDE
-followed by a 12 month follow-up period for each participant.
which means, they are looking at around 2 years just to complete the IDE IF I am reading the data correctly.
Who knows, maybe the r/split will be followed by a secondary offering to raise cash for the next 2 years to run the IDE... Maybe thats why there seems to be a bit of desperation to get folks to support the vote 'for'.
Disclaimer: broke even on a sale around 80 cents.. cause I didn't like the trend in the share price. Being patient to nibble on a new round, could have had some around 62 cents, but without the US?? Whats a share price target now?? Just curious...
Good to see its still 'chugging' along... selling covered calls on the shares isn't as lucrative as it was towards the end of last year. But going to keep doing it, keep building up a bigger position..
Wondering if they will try for another 'PH 3 readout' in June/July. Give them more data than they had in Dec to 'work with'..
Given how well the PH 2 'worked', doesn't make sense to make them take the PH 3 all the way.. But thats just my 2 cents..
flipped shares when I realized it wasn't going to hold $2.6.. Closed out my covered calls for 'gains' (sold for 12 cents, closed them out for 2 cents)
Bought another round today.. but also asked the question of, IF AXU is the tree in the forest that fell (announces production ramp up, sales), given the state of the PM sector (the forest), will anyone 'care'...
So in at $2.43 this morn, only looking for $3 now for starters.. Who would have thought something that got their permit, got their act together, and is ramping up production would still be $2.40/sh..
PS: new presentation on their website from a March 'conference'..
Only interesting/new part was on the state of their ramp up, with looking like July for reaching max dirt moving/day..
IF I read the stats correctly,
isn't there around 115 Million or so shares outstanding? (market cap $115 Million at a $/sh)
the 2 5% or more holders control around 16 Mil sharess??
management around 8 Million shares??
now I noticed that this just 'authorizes' a r/split, doesn't set a date for it. So suspect the authorization will be for one of those 'IF needed' moments?? Maybe to stay 'listed'??
Given that they are now set up to commence their IDE, looking for a 'timeline' to complete the trial...